Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 25th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morton | PIT | TBR | 87.1 | 3.09 | 3.87 | 1.24 | 38.5% | 18.0% | 8.6% | 0.41 | 2.44 |
| Price | TBR | PIT | 107.2 | 3.93 | 2.54 | 1.12 | 42.9% | 27.3% | 2.3% | 1.25 | 1.15 |
| Strasburg | WAS | MIL | 94 | 3.06 | 2.56 | 1.21 | 64.3% | 28.8% | 5.1% | 0.67 | 1.57 |
| Estrada | MIL | WAS | 84 | 4.82 | 3.99 | 1.24 | 23.1% | 21.2% | 7.7% | 2.46 | 0.67 |
| Gonzales | STL | COL | |||||||||
| Flande | COL | STL | |||||||||
| Kennedy | SDP | SFG | 92 | 3.72 | 3.10 | 1.17 | 50.0% | 25.9% | 6.4% | 0.88 | 1.11 |
| Lincecum | SFG | SDP | 76.2 | 4.81 | 3.82 | 1.50 | 23.1% | 22.6% | 10.1% | 1.17 | 1.53 |
| Alvarez | MIA | PHI | 88 | 2.56 | 3.66 | 1.28 | 38.5% | 15.3% | 4.9% | 0.41 | 2.34 |
| Burnett | PHI | MIA | 95 | 4.17 | 4.37 | 1.40 | 42.9% | 17.9% | 10.4% | 0.85 | 1.63 |
| Latos | CIN | CHC | 6 | 0.00 | 3.83 | 0.33 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.29 | |
| Jackson | CHC | CIN | 79.1 | 5.11 | 3.93 | 1.50 | 15.4% | 21.6% | 9.5% | 0.91 | 1.25 |
| Noesi | CWS | BAL | 57 | 5.37 | 4.18 | 1.56 | 25.0% | 18.8% | 8.2% | 1.42 | 0.85 |
| Jimenez | BAL | CWS | 76 | 4.86 | 4.58 | 1.51 | 23.1% | 20.4% | 13.5% | 1.07 | 1.46 |
| Kuroda | NYY | TOR | 83.1 | 4.32 | 3.89 | 1.25 | 38.5% | 16.2% | 4.8% | 1.08 | 1.47 |
| Hutchison | TOR | NYY | 82 | 3.62 | 3.84 | 1.20 | 30.8% | 20.6% | 6.8% | 1.10 | 0.84 |
| Mills | OAK | NYM | |||||||||
| Wheeler | NYM | OAK | 78 | 4.38 | 3.57 | 1.42 | 46.2% | 23.5% | 10.1% | 0.58 | 2.03 |
| Sanchez | DET | TEX | 62.2 | 2.44 | 3.41 | 0.95 | 40.0% | 24.3% | 7.8% | 0.14 | 1.25 |
| Saunders | TEX | DET | 26 | 3.46 | 4.49 | 1.77 | 25.0% | 12.3% | 8.2% | 0.69 | 2.17 |
| Haren | LAD | KCR | 86.1 | 3.54 | 3.92 | 1.25 | 38.5% | 15.4% | 3.9% | 1.25 | 1.43 |
| Shields | KCR | LAD | 97.2 | 3.50 | 3.61 | 1.30 | 50.0% | 19.4% | 5.3% | 1.11 | 1.41 |
| Wood | ATL | HOU | 60.1 | 3.43 | 2.97 | 1.30 | 57.1% | 25.2% | 6.0% | 1.04 | 1.42 |
| McHugh | HOU | ATL | 59.1 | 3.03 | 3.29 | 1.08 | 55.6% | 27.2% | 9.1% | 0.61 | 1.04 |
| Kluber | CLE | ARI | 96.2 | 3.35 | 2.94 | 1.27 | 50.0% | 26.4% | 6.4% | 0.65 | 1.55 |
| Anderson | ARI | CLE | 33.2 | 3.21 | 4.10 | 1.23 | 40.0% | 18.7% | 7.9% | 1.60 | 1.16 |
| Pino | MIN | LAA | |||||||||
| Richards | LAA | MIN | 87.2 | 2.87 | 3.37 | 1.11 | 53.8% | 24.4% | 8.4% | 0.21 | 1.65 |
| Buchholz | BOS | SEA | 50 | 7.02 | 4.70 | 1.98 | 30.0% | 15.7% | 9.7% | 1.26 | 1.13 |
| Iwakuma | SEA | BOS | 66 | 2.59 | 2.91 | 0.94 | 50.0% | 19.1% | 2.4% | 0.95 | 2.35 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Anibal Sanchez DET (at TEX) – Sanchez had some troubles getting going in April with a lot of shorter innings as he topped five innings just once en route to a solid 3.13 ERA, but in only 23 IP in five starts. Since then, he’s only gone fewer than six just once running up a 1.93 ERA in 46.7 IP with 35 strikeouts and a 3.9 K:BB ratio. This run includes a 7 IP/2 ER outing against these very same Rangers… well, almost the very same. They had lost Prince Fielder already, but Mitch Moreland did some damage in that first outing (1-3 with both RBIs) and he’s no longer playing due to injury.
Corey Kluber CLE (at ARI) – Kluber opened June with a couple of clunkers after a brilliant May causing some non-believers to jump ship, but he has gotten back on track. He took the loss against Detroit his last time out, but went 7 IP/2 ER with six strikeouts. He’s got some duds on his record this year, but when he’s on, he’s excellent. He can drop a huge score and while volatility can be a pain in the butt, the ups are so worth it.
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (v. BOS) – Iwakuma isn’t a big bat-misser, but his strikeout have been on the rise of late. After fanning just three in two of his first four starts, he’s fanned at least five in his last six yielding a 7.6 K/9. Now that is still well below the super-studs, but with his WHIP and ability to go deep into games (avg’ing just over 7 IP/start) makes up for the lower strikeout rate to propel him into that stud tier. Additionally, the Red Sox just aren’t the scary offense they were in 2013.
Garrett Richards LAA (v. MIN) – Richards is having a helluva breakout season with several huge games. He has three 5 ER outings, but his other 12 have seen him allow 3 ER or fewer including just 2 ER in all of June (0.67 ERA in 27 IP). He’s always had fierce stuff, but he’s finally making it work for him with missed bats galore yielding 94 strikeouts in his 93.7 IP of work. The Twins offense is solid, but they aren’t world-beaters and I think Richards is deserving of trust regardless of matchup.
Collin McHugh HOU (v. ATL) – McHugh hasn’t been awesome in June with just one outing over 5 IP, but he isn’t exactly getting bombed either and a pair of scoreless outings (well one of them was 2 R, but 0 ER) has helped him turn out a 2.66 ERA in 20.3 June IP. He’s only allowed 3 ER apiece in his other two outings, but they were just 4.3 and 5 IP. Meanwhile, he has continued to keep the strikeouts up with six in each of his last three and 22 in all. He gets a strikeout-prone Braves team to feast on, too. I still don’t buy the ERA as-is, I see him as more of a mid-3.00s guy at best, but the strikeouts keep him plenty viable in the daily game.
A.J. Burnett PHI (v. MIA) – Is Burnett back? I’m willing to bet that he may well be with three big outings in a row. We haven’t seen the same strikeouts we’re used to from him, but a 2.22 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his last three is excellent and he’s gone deeper in each passing outing with 7.3, 8, and 9 IP. Burnett has some wretched games under his belt this year, but even in his three worst during which he allowed 8, 6, and 5 ER, he still went at least 6 IP which can salvage those extra points and keep you alive in a 50-50 if everything else went well that evening. Meanwhile, he also has seven gems (6+ IP/2 or fewer ER).
Alex Wood ATL (at HOU) – Wood started off brilliantly this year before eventually losing his rotation spot and eventually jumping down to Triple-A to stay on regular work. The injury to Gavin Floyd has brought him back in the rotation and while I’m a bit skeptical of his 3.00 ERA, he misses plenty of bats and I think he can still be a high-3.00s, low-4.00s ERA guy. Houston, meanwhile, is no longer a walkover – especially against lefties. They are 9th in wOBA (.324) for the year and 7th for the month (.328).
Mat Latos CIN (at CHC) – At sites where his price is still up near the elite (DraftKings, for example), I’d pass on Latos, but some sites (DraftDay, for example) have responded to his early woes with a price drop and I’m willing to take a shot on that discount as I believe he will come out it sooner than later, especially with a matchup like this.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Henderson Alvarez MIA (at PHI) – A lot outlets still haven’t caught up to Alvarez yet. Sure, his price is up from where it started the season, but it’s not commensurate with his performance at multiple outlets creating a strong buying opportunity. I generally have a strong preference for someone who will miss bats, but Alvarez does well to succeed despite very few strikeouts.
Chase Anderson ARI (v. CLE) – While Cleveland has pummeled righties this year, I think there is a potential buying opportunity here. Anderson has a reverse platoon split with a .930 OPS against righties and .448 OPS against lefties. Cleveland often runs out eight left-handed or switch-hitting batters with Yan Gomes being the lone exception.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
James Shields KC (v. LAD) / Dan Haren LAD (at KC) – I’m avoiding both as they both work through bouts of gopheritis. I’m a little less worried about Shields, but I’m passing until he gets through this lull. Haren, meanwhile, usually has big home run issues as a precursor to his injuries so I’m quite concerned about him.
- Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (v. CWS)
- Hiroki Kuroda NYY (at TOR)
- Drew Hutchison TOR (v. NYY)
- Hector Noesi CWS (at BAL)
- Joe Saunders TEX (v. DET)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morton | 0.333 | 4.22 | 0.282 | 2.45 | 0.247 | 0.692 | 1.240 | 3.09 | 0.094 | 99.86 | 63.5% |
| Price | 0.263 | 3.42 | 0.307 | 3.65 | 0.278 | 0.754 | 1.110 | 3.93 | 0.25 | 109.60 | 70.0% |
| Strasburg | 0.282 | 3.22 | 0.277 | 2.92 | 0.264 | 0.732 | 1.210 | 3.06 | 0.237 | 97.13 | 67.5% |
| Estrada | 0.293 | 3.87 | 0.338 | 4.65 | 0.235 | 0.673 | 1.240 | 4.82 | 0.135 | 101.36 | 63.9% |
| Gonzales | 0.295 | 0.829 | |||||||||
| Flande | 0.233 | 0.650 | |||||||||
| Kennedy | 0.340 | 4.97 | 0.324 | 4.19 | 0.253 | 0.708 | 1.170 | 3.72 | 0.196 | 103.27 | 65.2% |
| Lincecum | 0.327 | 4.61 | 0.325 | 4.46 | 0.218 | 0.616 | 1.490 | 4.81 | 0.125 | 97.29 | 61.7% |
| Alvarez | 0.315 | 3.49 | 0.273 | 2.77 | 0.234 | 0.653 | 1.280 | 2.56 | 0.104 | 86.93 | 66.1% |
| Burnett | 0.354 | 4.97 | 0.256 | 2.55 | 0.256 | 0.722 | 1.400 | 4.17 | 0.075 | 103.07 | 60.0% |
| Latos | 0.309 | 3.17 | 0.282 | 3.05 | 0.223 | 0.640 | 0.330 | 0.00 | 0.2 | 87.00 | 69.0% |
| Jackson | 0.368 | 5.92 | 0.327 | 4.43 | 0.248 | 0.687 | 1.500 | 5.11 | 0.121 | 96.93 | 62.7% |
| Noesi | 0.371 | 5.32 | 0.400 | 6.57 | 0.263 | 0.723 | 1.560 | 5.37 | 0.106 | 67.27 | 64.0% |
| Jimenez | 0.309 | 3.86 | 0.317 | 3.75 | 0.261 | 0.733 | 1.510 | 4.86 | 0.069 | 101.43 | 60.5% |
| Kuroda | 0.327 | 4.07 | 0.276 | 3.10 | 0.263 | 0.766 | 1.250 | 4.32 | 0.114 | 95.36 | 62.4% |
| Hutchison | 0.318 | 3.68 | 0.305 | 3.62 | 0.247 | 0.684 | 1.200 | 3.62 | 0.138 | 94.36 | 64.5% |
| Mills | 0.252 | 0.674 | |||||||||
| Wheeler | 0.352 | 5.09 | 0.285 | 2.96 | 0.256 | 0.754 | 1.420 | 4.38 | 0.134 | 100.29 | 61.3% |
| Sanchez | 0.277 | 3.07 | 0.250 | 1.92 | 0.257 | 0.689 | 0.940 | 2.44 | 0.165 | 95.55 | 64.5% |
| Saunders | 0.263 | 2.89 | 0.410 | 5.83 | 0.274 | 0.762 | 1.770 | 3.46 | 0.041 | 94.80 | 59.5% |
| Haren | 0.309 | 4.89 | 0.349 | 3.82 | 0.268 | 0.695 | 1.250 | 3.54 | 0.115 | 100.57 | 64.6% |
| Shields | 0.295 | 3.14 | 0.326 | 3.47 | 0.270 | 0.760 | 1.290 | 3.50 | 0.142 | 106.20 | 64.0% |
| Wood | 0.305 | 2.93 | 0.310 | 3.47 | 0.268 | 0.739 | 1.290 | 3.43 | 0.192 | 53.28 | 66.0% |
| McHugh | 0.335 | 4.75 | 0.321 | 5.61 | 0.238 | 0.659 | 1.080 | 3.03 | 0.181 | 99.30 | 64.4% |
| Kluber | 0.328 | 4.16 | 0.297 | 3.13 | 0.257 | 0.706 | 1.260 | 3.35 | 0.201 | 98.73 | 67.0% |
| Anderson | 0.201 | 2.76 | 0.438 | 3.63 | 0.264 | 0.753 | 1.220 | 3.21 | 0.108 | 92.67 | 62.8% |
| Pino | 0.257 | 0.731 | |||||||||
| Richards | 0.304 | 3.76 | 0.272 | 3.71 | 0.246 | 0.705 | 1.110 | 2.87 | 0.16 | 98.71 | 61.9% |
| Buchholz | 0.298 | 3.19 | 0.313 | 3.80 | 0.234 | 0.678 | 1.980 | 7.02 | 0.061 | 92.60 | 62.7% |
| Iwakuma | 0.271 | 2.27 | 0.279 | 3.11 | 0.244 | 0.686 | 0.94 | 2.59 | 0.167 | 96.89 | 68.1% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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