Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 6th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-06-06 19:30:49

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: June 6th, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Gio Gonzalez, WAS (v. NYM) – Gonzalez has quietly been pitching extremely well since the beginning of May. He went into the month with a pair of 5 ER starts in his last three closing April with a 5.34 ERA. Since then he’s pitched to a 2.27 ERA in 40 innings with a 1.03 WHIP. Oddly enough the Mets were his opponent in one of those 5 ER outings (Apr 20th), but I expect a much different result this evening. The Mets finished April in the middle of the pack against lefties (no doubt due in large part to the thrashing of Gio), but they now rate as the third-worst team in MLB with a 643 OPS.

Pay close attention to the weather.

Derek Holland, TEX (at BOS) – Holland gets another crack at the Red Sox, who he dominated at home back on May 3rd throwing eight shutout innings allowing six hits and just one walk with nine strikeouts. I’m sure I told y’all to avoid him that day. These Sox have a potent offense, but it is built on the destruction of righties against whom they have the best OPS in the majors. They fall to the middle (15th exactly) against southpaws as their strikeout rate climbs four percentage points to 24% and the power drops nearly 100 points from 478 SLG to 391.

Holland’s slider has been the key to his success and will be again today. The Sox have a 432 OPS against lefty sliders (league average is 577) while striking out 40% of the time and Holland contributed nicely to that when he fanned them six times with his slider in that first matchup. They weren’t able to register so much as a hit against the pitch. In Holland’s last four – which includes two of his roughest outings (4 ER v. OAK and DET) – batters are just 5-for-30 against the slide piece with 18 strikeouts.

Shelby Miller, STL (v. ARI) – This will be one of Miller’s biggest challenges of the year. The D’Backs have a solid lineup and they place top 12 in overall OPS against righties, OPS against righty fastballs, and OPS against righty curveballs. Those last two are important because those are the two pitches in Miller’s arsenal. One aspect working in his favor is that two of the best hitters on their club against righties won’t be playing as both Eric Chavez and Aaron Hill are on the disabled list.

His primary focus should be to ensure that Paul Goldschmidt doesn’t beat him. He can do the most damage. How he handles Gerardo Parra and (probably) Didi Gregorious will then be very important as they bat ahead of Goldy. Gregorious usually bats second recently, but it was Willie Bloomquist against a righty yesterday so we shall see. There is no discount built in for Miller despite his facing a tough opponent today.

Jon Lester, BOS (v. TEX) – He managed a baseline quality start (6 IP, 3 ER) in his May 5th outing against the Rangers with Nelson Cruz and Mitch Moreland leaving the yard on him. He’s been allowing some big run counts of late with four earned or more in each of his last three starts, though two were against the Yankees and Indians (the third was against the White Sox, though!). He’s had some early inning struggles in those outings before eventually settling down. Perhaps this team is his remedy as the Rangers have a hilariously lame 296 OPS against lefties in the first inning compared to a 687 league average. This isn’t a great spot for Lester, though his price is depressed a bit with the recent struggles which does give him some intrigue.

BEST OF THE REST:

Dan Straily, OAK (at CWS) – Straily dominated these White Sox just five days ago allowing one run in six innings on just six hits with eight strikeouts. He gets them on the heels of a crazy 16-inning marathon game yesterday against the Mariners, though it was a day game so it’s not like it was some 2 AM game. The White Sox are baseball’s fourth-worst team against righties in AVG and OPS. They are actually the worst in OBP with an embarrassing .289 mark. Most sites are hot to Straily’s recent success and Chicago’s ineptitude so his price isn’t commensurate with a 4.60 ERA, but he’s still a strong option.

Shaun Marcum, NYM (at WAS) – Despite a hideous 5.71 ERA, Marcum has actually been pitching much better of late with a 4.10 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 26% K rate. In fact, with the latter two stats you would expect a far better ERA to go with them. The Nats came into the season as an ironclad lock to steamroll the NL en route to the World Series and yet that’s why they don’t play the games on paper. The Nats have been anemic offensively even if you give them some leeway for their injuries.

They are 24th in OPS against right-handers with 688 OPS including a horrific 525 in their last six. They’ve made Dillon Gee and Jeremy Hefner look like stars in the first two games of this series and Marcum has been pitching the best of the three lately giving him a chance to keep the momentum going. This could be the tightest pitcher’s duel of the day with two good arms and several weak hitters.

Pay close attention to the weather.

USE CAUTION:

Tim Hudson, ATL (at LAD) – The Dodgers might actually be a bigger disappointment than the Nationals given their money spent, though they have also had far more injuries as well. Either way, they don’t present a very vigorous challenge at the dish these days giving Hudson a chance to string a pair of quality starts together for the first time since early May. He actually dominated the aforementioned Nats in his previous outing and now he gets the Dodgers who are actually worse from an OPS standpoint at 679.

Huddy struggles most against righties, but the Dodgers don’t really have any premium right-handed bats outside of maybe Yasiel Puig (we need more than three games to definitively say whether or not he’s a premium bat). If he can hold Adrian Gonzalez in check, this could be a great outing for him. Of course, that won’t be easy. Gonzalez is 8-for-17 with a pair of homers off of Hudson.

Ian Kennedy, ARI (at STL) – The frustrating thing about Kennedy is that you really never know when he’s going throw a gem. He’s only been really bad in one outing so you can pretty much put six innings and three or four runs allowed with about five strikeouts in the bank. He has the talent to be much better – he showed it in his season debut against these Cardinals when he allowed just two runs in seven innings fanning eight – but he’s been more workhorse than ace the last two years. His prices are down a bit making him an option to at least consider, but this offense is fierce against righties of late. After a 689 OPS in April, they’ve hit righties at an 800 clip since May 1st. If you can stomach the risk there is upside, but be careful.

Zack Greinke, LAD (v. ATL) – DraftStreet and DailyJoust are offering some upside with Greinke because of his depressed price, but everywhere else he’s essentially a stay-away for me. He’s still working out the kinks, mostly with his command, and you can’t miss to these Braves. They will strikeout plenty, but they turn mistakes into instant runs with 60 home runs against righties on the season – tied for third-best in baseball. They’ve really started to heat up overall the last few weeks, too. Their 770 OPS is sixth-best in baseball and their 22% strikeout is just seventh-highest (a marked improvement). I might actually prefer this next guy to Greinke because of the matchup and Greinke’s recent struggles. Might.

Aaron Harang, SEA (v. NYY) – He’s been a mini-Joe Saunders and though his splits aren’t quite as wide, he’s clearly a home-only guy. He has a 3.91 ERA in Safeco and 7.97 on the road. Where he differs from Saunders is that his skills are sharp home and away with a 4.0 K/BB at home and 4.8 on the road. The Yankees were baseball’s best team against righties in April at 845, but they have come allllll the way back down to earth since then with a 648, good for 26th in the majors.

I realize the idea of using Harang is barf-worthy, but consider that even with a 7 ER/3.7 IP outing mixed in, he has a 3.52 ERA in his last five starts spanning 30.7 innings. He’s been excellent in the other four outings going six or more including a shutout of the Padres. Before you poo-poo it because it was against the Padres consider that: it was Aaron freaking Harang so the competition really doesn’t matter and also the Padres have better track record against righties since that May 1st mark I discussed earlier. Their 692 OPS easily eclipses the Yankees.

As with Quintana, if he doesn’t do most of the work on his own, there could be trouble netting a win once it hits the bullpen as they were taxed in the 16-innning affair.

Jose Quintana (v. OAK) – Even if I wasn’t worried about Oakland’s work against lefties (784 OPS is good for third in the league; 10 H v. Quintana his last time out), I would be concerned with Quintana as a pick because his win probability starts low when his team is at full strength, but dips dramatically when you consider how gassed the bullpen is from the 16-inning affair yesterday afternoon.

Andrew Cashner, SD (at COL) – The raw talent is immense and he shows signs of how good he can be in almost every start, but his biggest issue since joining the rotation on April 20th has been homers and this isn’t the park for a home run issue. He’s allowed 1.3 HR/9 including a 2.1 rate in his last four.

Tyler Cloyd, PHI (at MIL) – This is a rematch series as well. Cloyd was solid against the Brewers his last time out giving up two in seven innings, but they hit him hard with four doubles and a triple among their eight hits. Cloyd shied away from his best secondary pitch (by results again) – a curveball – and it was likely because the Brewers crush righty curves to the tune of a 784 OPS. If he can’t mix that curve in to garner a few outs, I question his ability to repeat the 2 ER performance from five days ago.

Jhoulys Chacin, COL (v. SD) – Despite a very modest 2.0 K/BB, Chacin hasn’t been too bad this year thanks in part to an improved groundball rate that has jumped from 39% a year ago to 49% this year. Right now he is a spot starter for the road only. He has a 5.26 ERA at home with just a 10% K rate and 1.5 K/BB while those numbers move to 2.66, 24%, and 2.6 on the road. Pass.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

Phil Hughes, NYY (at SEA) – Don’t bother. First off, do you remember what happened last time he faced the M’s? How about seven earned in just 2/3rds of an inning. Secondly, what has he done to earn your trust even against a modest offense?

• Wily Peralta, MIL
• Mike Pelfrey, MIN
• Wade Davis, KC

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PARK FACTORS: June 6th, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: June 6th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.