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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 9th

by PSporer Last Updated 2014-06-09 18:28:47

The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher TM OPP IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Jackson CHC PIT 68.2 4.59 3.91 1.47 18.2% 21.8% 9.7% 0.66 1.33
Morton PIT CHC 73.1 3.31 4.08 1.29 36.4% 16.9% 9.1% 0.49 2.37
Peavy BOS BAL 74.1 4.72 4.50 1.46 45.5% 17.1% 9.3% 1.21 1.05
Norris BAL BOS 67.1 4.41 4.43 1.22 20.0% 16.1% 7.9% 1.20 1.09
Nolasco MIN TOR 73.1 5.65 4.28 1.53 18.2% 15.7% 6.3% 1.35 1.13
Dickey TOR MIN 78.1 4.25 4.38 1.42 50.0% 18.7% 10.3% 0.92 1.22
Haren LAD CIN 74.2 3.50 3.73 1.25 45.5% 16.6% 3.8% 1.21 1.51
Cingrani CIN LAD 55 4.09 4.25 1.47 33.3% 22.2% 11.7% 1.64 0.83
House CLE TEX 19 3.79 3.44 1.42 50.0% 16.3% 6.3% 1.42 3.18
Martinez TEX CLE 44.2 3.22 5.57 1.61 20.0% 10.7% 10.2% 1.21 0.71
Porcello DET CWS 70.2 3.69 4.06 1.21 60.0% 15.9% 5.6% 1.02 1.43
Noesi CWS DET 47.2 5.29 4.28 1.53 16.7% 18.5% 9.0% 1.13 0.89
Nuno NYY KCR 52.1 5.33 4.14 1.46 25.0% 18.5% 7.9% 1.72 0.97
Vargas KCR NYY 85 3.28 4.13 1.25 75.0% 17.5% 6.5% 1.16 0.98
Floyd ATL COL 35.1 2.80 3.49 1.48 40.0% 19.8% 5.7% 0.76 1.80
Bergman COL ATL
Cosart HOU ARI 67 4.16 4.37 1.37 36.4% 16.7% 10.8% 0.67 2.07
Collmenter ARI HOU 67 3.63 4.42 1.16 33.3% 14.7% 5.9% 1.21 0.90
Chavez OAK LAA 74 3.04 3.42 1.20 54.5% 22.3% 6.5% 1.09 1.39
Richards LAA OAK 74.2 3.25 3.49 1.16 45.5% 23.9% 8.9% 0.24 1.56
Strasburg WAS SFG 81.1 3.10 2.54 1.26 58.3% 29.3% 5.5% 0.66 1.62
Vogelsong SFG WAS 69 3.39 3.91 1.28 54.5% 20.7% 7.9% 0.91 0.95

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.

BEST BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.

Stephen Strasburg WAS (at SF) – Strasburg is absolutely rolling right now. Over his last nine starts he has a 2.09 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 68 Ks in 60.3 IP of work going 7+ IP in six of the nine. He walked nine in his first four starts, but then just 10 in these last nine starts.

ryan-vogelsong-300x200

Ryan Vogelsong SF (v. WAS) – After getting trounced in Coors, Vogey has turned it around and become the 2011-2012 version over his last eight starts with a 2.05 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 49 Ks in 52.7 IP going at least six innings in all eight starts. He’s also fanned at least five in seven of the eight starts including nine against the Reds his last time out.

Jesse Chavez OAK (at LAA) – Every time it looks like the wheels are coming off a bit for Chavez, he bounces back with a strong start or two and even his struggles haven’t really been bad with no more than 4 ER allowed in a single outing this year. His cutter has fueled the surge, but his secondary stuff has also been fantastic with the curve and changeup yielding a .557 OPS with a 29% strikeout rate in 96 PA. The Angels aren’t an easy matchup with the ninth-best wOBA against righties this year at .317, but they have just a .231 against righty curves and changeups so look for Chavez to lean on the cutter a little less and work the soft stuff more tonight in Anaheim.

Rick Porcello DET (at CWS) – Porcello rebounded nicely from his 6 BB fiasco in Oakland with a 7 IP/3 ER effort against the hot-hitting Blue Jays that saw walk just one. The White Sox offense got off to a great start this year, but has slid back to league average over the last month with a .310 wOBA. Porcello hasn’t had the elite groundball rate of previous seasons, but he’s still toting a 1.4 GB/FB rate making a trip to US Cellular a little less scary than it would be for neutral or flyball pitcher.

Charlie Morton PIT (v. CHC) – Morton has a strong 3.31 ERA on the season, but he’s failed to go six in any of his last three outings with 11 BB in the 16 IP – an uncharacteristic issue for his more control-oriented approach. He’s escaped with just 5 ER in those same three starts and he gets a horrid Cubs offense to stay hot against tonight. Their .280 wOBA against righties is the second-worst in baseball and they strikeout 23% of the time – fourth-most in the league.

dan-haren-300x200

Dan Haren LAD (at CIN) – I’m keeping a close eye on Haren as his last five starts haven’t been great and with 8 homers allowed in the 31 IP, I’m a little worried that his back issues might be cropping up a bit. He’d allowed just 2 homers in his first seven starts before this run. Homers are often the first indicator of his back issues, or at least they were in the past. The terrible Reds offense definitely helps here.

VALUE PLAYS:

These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.

Tony Cingrani CIN (v. LAD) – I’ve been leery of Cingrani for a while now, but the Dodgers make average lefties look great so someone with Cingrani’s talent can really take advantage even though he’s struggled a bit this year. His walk and home run rates said that last year’s 2.92 ERA was unsustainable and both have gotten worse this year resulting in a 4.09 ERA while his strikeout and hit rates have also both worsened. And yet with those uninspiring totals taking down his price, he’s now a potential bargain in this matchup as the Dodgers are toting the third-worst wOBA against lefties at .278 for the year. They have a .229 mark against lefty sliders – Cingrani’s best secondary pitch.

Jason Vargas KC (v. NYY) – Vargas has two 7 ER meltdowns inflating his ERA as well as a 5 ER rough go against Toronto. He’s been incredible in his other 10 outings with 2 or fewer ER allowed. In fact, since his last 7 ER dud, he has a 1.77 ERA in three starts against the Angels, Jays, and Cardinals although the 1.43 WHIP suggests that the ERA might be a little bit of a mirage. He doesn’t need to post a 1.77 ERA to be worthwhile against the league average Yankees. His ERA is 4.73 at home, but his 3.4 K/BB ratio suggests he can be much better, especially since it’s a pitcher-friendly venue.

edwin-jackson-300x200

Edwin Jackson CHC (at PIT) – For some reason I just can’t quit E-Jax. He’s basically the only pitcher to make San Diego look good this year when he melted down for 8 ER in 4 IP out in Petco earlier this year, but he has a useful 3.76 ERA in his other 11 starts with the best strikeout rate of his career at 21.8%. All of his ERA indicators point to a figure substantially better than his 4.59 ERA which points to better days ahead.

STAYAWAYS:

These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.

Other Notes:

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher wOBA vs L ERA vs L wOBA vs R ERA vs R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Jackson 0.365 5.72 0.321 4.31 0.251 0.703 1.460 4.59 0.121 97.58 62.3%
Morton 0.338 4.30 0.283 2.56 0.219 0.633 1.280 3.31 0.078 100.67 62.9%
Peavy 0.319 4.47 0.320 4.36 0.270 0.734 1.450 4.72 0.078 103.33 63.5%
Norris 0.374 5.43 0.295 3.03 0.242 0.682 1.220 4.41 0.082 103.18 63.8%
Nolasco 0.342 4.43 0.310 4.09 0.269 0.792 1.530 5.65 0.094 98.83 63.1%
Dickey 0.329 4.33 0.313 4.16 0.247 0.707 1.420 4.25 0.083 104.08 63.4%
Haren 0.315 4.95 0.344 3.82 0.243 0.676 1.250 3.50 0.127 101.50 64.9%
Cingrani 0.260 3.07 0.328 3.49 0.207 0.615 1.470 4.09 0.105 95.00 59.8%
House 0.362 3.86 0.375 3.75 0.284 0.770 1.420 3.79 0.1 68.00 68.4%
Martinez 0.407 4.22 0.321 2.42 0.264 0.751 1.590 3.22 0.005 70.09 58.4%
Porcello 0.348 4.60 0.278 3.70 0.259 0.728 1.200 3.69 0.102 99.18 65.4%
Noesi 0.369 5.40 0.394 6.55 0.273 0.756 1.510 5.29 0.095 64.23 63.4%
Nuno 0.411 8.74 0.325 3.69 0.244 0.652 1.450 5.33 0.106 70.58 64.9%
Vargas 0.328 2.97 0.328 4.07 0.264 0.708 1.250 3.28 0.11 104.54 63.5%
Floyd 0.369 3.55 0.336 4.05 0.277 0.787 1.470 2.80 0.14 97.50 64.6%
Bergman 0.232 0.640
Cosart 0.270 2.49 0.339 4.17 0.255 0.698 1.370 4.16 0.059 96.33 61.5%
Collmenter 0.333 4.16 0.282 2.84 0.224 0.675 1.160 3.63 0.088 72.43 65.7%
Chavez 0.317 3.79 0.254 3.02 0.252 0.728 1.200 3.04 0.159 98.50 67.3%
Richards 0.311 3.98 0.274 3.84 0.255 0.762 1.150 3.25 0.151 97.33 61.5%
Strasburg 0.279 3.11 0.279 3.03 0.247 0.713 1.250 3.10 0.238 98.00 67.4%
Vogelsong 0.329 4.23 0.370 5.44 0.241 0.688 1.280 3.39 0.128 95.58 61.1%

Starting Pitcher Salaries

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.