Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 24th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-05-24 19:40:01

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: May 24th, 2013

_____________________________________________________________________________________

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Jordan Zimmermann, WAS (v. PHI) – It’s ABC analysis with Zimm. He’s amazing and he’s someone to consider against anyone, but when he gets to face a poor offense like the Phillies he shoots up to the top of the heap. The Phillies are 28th in the league in OPS against righties with a 668 mark. As long as righties don’t let Chase Utley beat them, this lineup just doesn’t offer much of a challenge.

Anibal Sanchez, DET (v. MIN) – Sanchez has a career-best 11.9% swinging strike rate supporting his career-best 30% strikeout rate as he quietly emerges into a semi-ace for the Tigers. The Twins are usually known for being a contact-heavy team, but they are striking out a bit more against right-handers than usual at 22% on the year, eighth-worst in baseball. His changeup has been a driving force this year yielding a 510 OPS with a 32% strikeout rate and the Twins’ 515 OPS against righty changeups is fourth-worst in baseball. Look for Anibal to have a sharp bounce back from his disastrous outing in Arlington from last week.

A.J. Burnett, PIT (at MIL) – Burnett is absolutely dominating righties this year with a .168/.202/.252 line that includes a 37% strikeout rate. Lefties have better luck with a .243/.372/.318 line, but the Brewers have only one lefty regular in Norichika Aoki making this is a perfect matchup for Burnett. He went seven innings and allowed four runs (three earned) against these Brewers just 11 days ago and guess who had a huge game? Yep, Aoki. He went 3-for-5 with a pair of doubles and three RBIs. The rest of the team went 6-for-30. Avoid Aoki and Burnett should be able to impose his will upon the Brew Crew.

Lance Lynn, STL (at LAD) – The Dodgers, despite their $80 billion dollar team, are the second-worst team by OPS against righties (665). Only the Marlins (594) are worse and they at least have an excuse. Lynn leans on his fastball variations (77%), but he nets plenty of strikeouts with his breaking pitches as well with a 24-25% strikeout rate on each of his pitches. Lynn snapped a streak of five straight starts where he went exactly seven innings during his last outing, but he has a nice chance to start a new such streak.

BEST THE REST:

Justin Masterson, CLE (at BOS) – Unlike his sharp 2011, Masterson’s 2013 success is being driven by improvements against left-handers making him a really intriguing option. He was shutting lefties down during his first three starts (417 OPS), but reverted back to his old form in his next four with a 926 OPS against southpaws only to show the good side again in his last three with a 410 OPS. While those may be selective endpoints, it coincides with his successes and struggles overall, too. The net is that he has a 621 OPS against lefties, far and away a career-best. Boston can stack up to six lefties against him so he will have his work cut out for him and he’s trying to rebound from a lefty-fest against them just over month ago where they got him for four runs on 11 hits.

Brandon McCarthy, ARI (v. SD) – McCarthy’s season has started to turn around with a trio of quality starts including 17 shutout innings over his last two. The competition hasn’t been terrible fierce with trips to the Dodgers and Marlins sandwiching a home start against the Phillies, but McCarthy couldn’t you and me out earlier this year so I’m not going to discount his success entirely. He’s made a mechanical change and the improvements are obvious.

Kyle Kendrick, PHI (at WAS) – We could see quite a pitching matchup with Zimm and Kendrick as the Nationals aren’t exactly tearing the cover off of the ball against righties, either. Their 686 OPS is well short of expectations and checks in at the 22nd-worst mark in the league. Their 22% strikeout rate is fifth-worst and opens up a chance for Kendrick to get his strikeouts back on track after just six in his last two outings. His approach is more of a groundball/command-focused one, though, so I expect a lot of weak contact out of the National bats tonight. Both Kendrick and McCarthy line up as bargain options to go for in lieu of the Zimmermanns and Sanchezes of the world.

Kris Medlen, ATL (at NYM) – Though the ERA is still strong at just 3.02, Medlen’s 1.32 WHIP tells the story of how much he has faltered this year compared to his insane run of 2012. Both the hits and walks are way up and he has rounded out into the solid middle level starter that you would expect given his talent. The heavy base runner count does mitigate his overall and the sharp plunge in strikeout rate has also further dropped his scoring output. He’s overvalued on name alone thanks to the 2012 surge, but facing the lowly Mets keeps him in the “Best” pool instead of dropping him to “Caution”. That said, don’t be afraid to look elsewhere at venues where the price hasn’t dropped to a more reasonable level.

USE CAUTION:

Justin Grimm, TEX (at SEA) – Grimm gets the M’s for the third time this year and looks to keep his 2.70 ERA against them intact (or improve it). He only went four in his season debut allowing a pair of runs, but followed it up with six strong in his very next outing 10 days later allowing just one run and fanning nine. Grimm faltered a bit in mid-May with back-to-back five earned run outings, but followed it up with a gem against the hard-hitting Detroit Tigers last weekend. Grimm offers all the facets of a great bargain play: solid strikeout potential, favorable opponent, favorable venue, low price, and high likelihood for a win. I love the potential bang for your buck here.

Scott Feldman, CHC (at CIN) – I expected some nice things out of the Cubs staff this year and so far that has panned out. But I’d be disingenuous if I said I saw it coming this way. I expected Jeff Samardzija, Edwin Jackson, and Matt Garza to form a foundation for them, but instead Feldman and Travis Wood have joined with Samardzija to form a dominant frontline trio. Feldman allowed four in his season debut and has gone on to allow just eight in seven starts since then.

The Reds offer a more than formidable challenge, especially in their home venue, but Feldman’s improved strikeout rate and return to a groundball-heavy approach bring legitimacy to his start. He is still being priced favorably considering the fact that he has a 2.19 ERA on the season which adds to his appeal as a risk/reward candidate. I’m not 100% bought in on him just yet, but if I was looking to construct a super-powered offense and needed to save on pitching, Feldman is a candidate to fill my starter’s role.

David Phelps, NYY (at TB) – When Phelps joined the rotation, I think a lot of daily leaguers used him in his initial start against the Astros because he was dirt cheap and well, they’re the Astros. He disappointed allowing four runs on eight hits and a walk in 5.7 innings, but he’s been incredible since then and against strong competition. He’s thrashed the Rockies in Coors, the Indians at the Jake, and the Blue Jays in Yankee Stadium. During that three-start stretch, he has a 1.83 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 25% strikeout rate. The Rays offense is ninth in baseball against righties which is likely better than most think, but Phelps’ price hasn’t really been adjusted to match his recent run making him a solid low-dollar option.

Jason Vargas, LAA (at KC) – Vargas had a miserable pair of starts in his second and third outings of the season, but he’s been excellent since then with a 2.47 ERA in 43.7 innings spanning six starts. His only blemish during the stretch came in Houston (more on that when we cover their opponent for today) where he allowed five in just 5.7 innings. The surge includes in a seven-inning gem against these Royals during which he allowed two runs on five hits and a walk while fanning seven.

The Royals destroy lefties on the road, but are one of the worst clubs against them at home so far this season with a 664 OPS (24th in MLB). Vargas has a sharp home/road split though, which is why he is still in the “Caution” pool. His 2.52 ERA at home is driving his success while he morphs into a hit machine on the road with a 5.16 ERA thanks to 33 hits allowed in 23 innings of work.

John Danks, CWS (v. MIA) – Hey, the obligatory “facing the Marlins” guy! Danks is making his season debut after missing time due to a shoulder injury. While there is risk associated with taking a guy in his season debut coming off of an injury, facing the Marlins cuts into that risk profile quite a bit. They are the second-worst team in baseball against lefties by OPS with a 609. Danks couldn’t have asked for a softer landing. Some outlets have priced his opponent in making him much higher than you would expect for someone in his situation while others haven’t making him a nice upside play if you can stomach the risk.

Tim Lincecum, SF (v. COL) – The Rockies have reverted to their old ways of looking like a completely different offense on the road. Their 824 road OPS in April was tops in the NL and fourth-best in baseball, but that has fallen to 671 in May landing 21st on the list – although it has been a short seven game sample as they’ve spent the majority of the month at home. They ripped Lincecum for six runs in just five innings last Saturday at Coors Field, but he is a different pitcher at home this year so I don’t hate him as an option here.

Chris Capuano, LAD (v. STL) – For as dangerous as the Cardinals lineup can be on paper, they really haven’t been that imposing this year, especially against lefties with a 639 OPS that ranks as the third-worst in baseball. That said, they have faced the fewest lefties in the league, too, with just 370 plate appearances against them compared to a 514 league average. I’ve always liked Capuano when healthy and he’s looked strong lately with back-to-back gems. I don’t love the idea of challenging this Cardinals lineup, but the investment isn’t too steep and he does have strong component skills including a 19% strikeout rate and 3.0 K/BB ratio.

Tommy Milone, OAK (at HOU) – Milone still has his sharp home/road ERA splits with a 2.43 in Oakland and a 4.94 away from home and a trip to Houston isn’t guaranteed to bring the latter down at all. Not only do the Astros fare pretty well against lefties (764 OPS is fourth in baseball), but they trounce them at home with an MLB-best 867 OPS. They still fan 29% of the time, but let’s focus on the fact that the Astros are the best at something that is worth being best at this year! Milone’s propensity to pound the zone gets punished away from the spacious confines of the Oakland Coliseum resulting in far more extra base hits against him. Be careful.

Chris Tillman, BAL (at TOR) – Tillman’s first strong outing of the season came against these Blue Jays on April 22nd when he held them to just a run in 6.7 innings. From that start on he has a 2.27 ERA in 39.7 innings spanning six starts. There are some warning signs, though. He just hasn’t been as dominant this year with a meager 5.5% swinging strike percentage leading to a 17% strikeout rate during his six start run. His 1.34 HR/9 rate is worrisome against Toronto as they hit the most homers against righties in all of baseball with 48. His night could end up like “Brandon Morrow(player-profile)”:/players/Brandon_Morrow-11125’s from Thursday: 7 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 3 HR, but also a win.

Eric Stults, SD (at ARI) – After a disastrous April (5.67 ERA), Stults has rebounded for a big May posting a 2.39 ERA in 26.3 innings of work. He doesn’t strike out too many guys and he can be very hittable times. Not only that, but I’m not sure the Padres are going to do much against McCarthy which cuts into Stults’ win probability. When gambling on these middling talents, you really need those extra win points for it to pay off. You can’t predict wins, but certain situations set up better than others and I prefer several other guys to Stults here.

Bronson Arroyo, CIN (v. CHC) – I’ve never been much of an Arroyo fan, but he is running a 14.7 inning scoreless streak with 11 strikeouts and just three walks during that time. My biggest issue with him is how quickly it can turn. He can go from an unstoppable stud to a worthless dud in no time and that’s why he worries me. I am heartened by the fact that his HR/9 is at 0.9, the lowest it’s been since 2004. I personally don’t mess with him, but he isn’t a bad low-dollar option if you’re so inclined.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

• John Lackey, BOS – Don’t mess with Cleveland
• Roberto Hernandez, TB
• Tyler Chatwood, COL
• Jeremy Hefner, NYM
• Marco Estrada, MIL
• Tom Koehler, MIA
• Joe Saunders, SEA
• Luis Mendoza, KC
• Samuel Deduno, MIN
• Sean Nolin, TOR
• Erik Bedard, HOU

_____________________________________________________________________________________

PARK FACTORS: May 24th, 2013

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Starting Pitcher Salaries: May 24th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.