Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 28th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-05-28 19:17:39

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: May 28th, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Chris Sale, CWS (v. CHC) – Just missed Sale v. Samardzija by a day! That would’ve been awesome. Sale has been just as ace-like in 2013 as he was a season ago, except with even better results. I think the same injury fears loom overhead and cause him not be valued at quite the peak he should be, but in daily fantasy those fears are muted since we are only investing for a start.

One of the keys to Sale’s success has been an increase in first-pitch strikes, going up from 57% to 61%. The Cubs are actually one of three teams with better than a 1000 OPS on 0-1 counts, so that second pitch will be key for Sale as he will have to watch out for their aggressive approach. Overall, the Cubs rank 24th against lefties on the season by OPS and I wouldn’t be surprised if Sale does something similar to what Samardzija did last night (two-hit shutout, eight strikeouts). Of course, it’ll cost you with Sale – he’s the most expensive arm at every site today so you better have some bargain bats ready if you want to invest.

Matt Harvey, NYM (v. NYY) – The only real downside with Harvey is that he’s facing Kuroda which puts the likelihood of a win in more peril than normal. I mean he’s only 5-0 despite his 1.93 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 28% K rate, and six percent walk rate. He has a 2.67 ERA in his five no decisions while the Mets have scored just 16 runs in those games. And even that is deceiving because in one of them they scored five of the runs in the ninth and extra innings. The Yankees have tumbled against righties in May posting the 27th-ranked OPS. They have the third-worst batting average (.222) and absolute worst on-base percentage (.272). His Mets aren’t that much better, which you’ll see shortly…

Cliff Lee, PHI (at BOS) – For all the discussion of improved strikeout rates all over the league, Lee is someone succeeding with a significantly lowered rate as he dipped from 24.4% last year to 19.2% this year. He still refuses to walk batters and though his rate has climbed from 3.3% to 4.6%, he’s still elite. By runs alone, the Red Sox are ranked in baseball with 261, but they have a distinct lefty-righty split ranking first in the league against righties, but just 17th in OPS against southpaws. It’s even more troublesome at home where their 649 OPS ranks just 23rd in the league. Their everyday lineup features five lefties (or switch-hitters) and of course they are prone to struggles against their same-handed pitching counterparts.

BEST THE REST:

Hiroki Kuroda, NYY (at NYM) – The Mets weren’t particularly sharp at the dish against righties in April, but they’ve been even worse in May ranking 25th in OPS, 25th in batting average, and 27th in on-base percentage. We could see a stalemate offensively if Kuroda gets back on track. In his last outing he went just two innings, allowing five runs on eight hits including a pair of home runs before leaving with a bruised right calf. He entered that outing with a 1.99 ERA in 59 innings as he has quietly emerged as one of the best arms in the game.

Whether it’s the calf or the fact that he’s facing Harvey (which decreases his win probability significantly), Kuroda is heavily discounted at several outlets today. There is upside to be found here, but if your favored outlet heavily rewards pitcher wins, you have to prepare for the fact that Kuroda could throw a gem and leave with a no-decision. I bumped him down a group to “Best” because of the ankle, his latest outing, and facing Harvey.

Mat Latos, CIN (v. CLE) – I wasn’t exactly screaming from the rooftops to pick him, but as cautious as I’ve been with the Indians this year, I thought Mike Leake matched up well against them and he ended up throwing a helluva game despite the no-decision. Latos prominently features his slider and curveball as well also giving him a stronger chance to shut down this potent lineup. They are the second-worst in the league against those two pitches with 480 OPS and 37% strikeout rate and Latos has allowed 496 OPS with his curve and slider throwing them 36% of the time. DraftStreet, StarStreet, and FantasyFued are all offering Latos at a depressed price and I think there is a buying opportunity despite the tough opponent.

Ryan Dempster, BOS (v. PHI) – Dempster has been terrible in his last three outings with a 10.66 ERA in 12.7 innings, but he has a great bounce back opportunity as faces off against Phillies. They have a punchless lineup against lefties with a .364 SLG that ranks as the third-lowest. They’ve been even worse in May posting a .331 SLG and league-worst 610 OPS. Despite the issues, Dempster still has a 27% strikeout rate on the season which almost makes his 11% percent walk palatable. The biggest downside with Dempster isn’t so much anything with him, but rather the fact that his team’s lineup has to face Lee.

USE CAUTION:

Ervin Santana, KC (v. STL) – Santana’s biggest issue is well known: he gives up far too many homers. He’s given up 13 of his 22 earned runs and nine of his 10 home runs in three starts. He still has a 3.14 ERA on the season because of how awesome he has been in the other six starts. As potent as the Cards can be at the dish, they have just 28 homers against right-handers which puts 27th in the league. That said, I still don’t love this matchup for Santana as the Cards have the fourth-best OPS against righty sliders – Santana’s best pitch.

Jeremy Hellickson, TB (v. MIA) – He’s been all messed up this year, but facing the Marlins earns you attention by default. Hellickson’s fastball is getting destroyed this year as his command of the pitch has been particularly awful (eight homers allowed on it). Of course this weak Marlins lineup doesn’t usually take advantage of these sorts of things. Hellickson was solid in his latest outing against the Blue Jays and this matchup gives him an opportunity to string together back-to-back nice outings for the first time since mid-April. The downside is that neither sites nor your opponents are blind to the fact that pitchers get fat facing the Marlins so outlets bump the prices up while your competitors often select the pitcher facing Miami by default.

Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD (v. LAA) – Ryu has remained effective throughout May with a 3.24 ERA despite a sharp drop in strikeout rate. In fact, he struck out 12 Rockies in his final April outing, but has only fanned 14 total batters in four May starts. Meanwhile he has walked 12 and given up 24 hits in 25 innings. Is it a blip or a true talent level coming through? We won’t know for a while unfortunately, but don’t let his season-long 23% strikeout rate fool you as that’s just not the guy he has been in May. The Angels are league average against southpaws, though they do flail against lefty changeups which has remained an incredible pitch for him in May. I wouldn’t dive in headfirst here.

Zach McAllister, CLE (at CIN) – Despite a regression of skills, McAllister has improved results-wise posting a 2.89 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in his first nine starts. This isn’t a great spot for McAllister. The Reds aren’t world beaters against righties (ranking 14th in OPS), but I worry about McAllister’s penchant for allowing both base runners and home runs, especially in that ballpark. There are better options.

Jarrod Parker, OAK (v. SF) – We’ve gotten three straight quality starts from Parker now and he appears to have finally figured some things out. The Giants club righties at home (814 OPS), but they fall to a league average 700 OPS on the road. They especially struggle against right-handed changeups with an OBP (.195) lower than their batting average (.198) combined with a .247 SLG that gives them the second-worst OPS (442). A side benefit here is that the Giants are throwing a guy making his MLB debut. Horrible composite numbers keep Parker’s prices low, but if he continues this streak too much longer then the sites will have to raise it up. If you want to go low-dollar arm, this is a spot for some big upside.

Edwin Jackson, CHC (at CWS) – He’s deserved better than his 6.11 ERA, but plenty of it is his own doing as he has just been brutal from the stretch. His OPS against is at 825 with men on and he’s only stranded 56% of the base runners he is allowing. That has to improve drastically if he is going to get the most out of his strong strikeout and walk rates. Facing the White Sox is a nice treat as they have not hit well at all this year and they are especially poor against E-Jax’s best pitch (slider). They have a 496 OPS against the pitch, ranking 25th in baseball. We could see a pitcher’s duel if the right Jackson shows up, but Sale is just too good to bet against so while there is some upside potential here, I can’t envision too many scenarios where I would pounce on it.

Kevin Slowey, MIA (at TB) – Slowey bounced back after a pair of poor outings and thwarted the Phils for five strong innings. Of course he was dealt the loss because even a single run was just too much for the Marlins to overcome. The fact that he went through his first seven starts with a 1.81 ERA backed up by strong component stats and yet was just 1-2 tells you all you need to know about backing a Marlins starter. In fact, if your preferred outlet heavily rewards pitcher wins, you simply can’t in good conscious take a Marlin starter. It’s a waste of your buy-in money.

Kevin Gausman, BAL (at WAS) – While it wasn’t a particularly sharp outing for our purposes in the daily fantasy realm, Gausman showed a lot in his MLB debut and I think we will see plenty of strong outings from him this season. His changeup is downright filthy and the polish of this youngster was apparent, too. The Nats haven’t been the juggernaut that everyone expected this year and their starter, Nate Karns, is making his MLB debut today without nearly the fanfare of Gausman. He’s not a blue-chip prospect and there is severe implosion potential with him adding to Gausman’s win probability if he can improve upon that debut outing. I think there are too many better options to be messing with Gausman here, but if you are just obsessed with several high-dollar bats that you think are set to explode today then this low-dollar option is someone to look at as your starter.

Rick Porcello, DET (v. PIT) – Good luck figuring out Porcello. He looked great in outings against Cleveland and Texas only to get trounced by the Twins in his latest outing. He is far too inconsistent to instill even a modicum of confidence, but I still ranked him because the Pirates aren’t exactly clubbing the ball around and he has the support of the Tigers lineup and bullpen (which has been fantastic in May) behind him. The Pirates are hitting a meager .168 against righty changeups, Porcello’s best pitch, so look for that to be his key to success today.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

• Tyler Lyons, STL
• Scott Diamond, MIN
• Brandon Maurer, SEA
• Jeanmar Gomez, PIT
• Joe Blanton, LAA
• Edinson Volquez, SD
• Nate Karns, WAS
• Alfredo Figaro, MIL
• Mike Kickham, SF

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PARK FACTORS: May 28th, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: May 28th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.