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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: September 11th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-09-11 21:41:03

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: September 11th, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Stults SDP 179.1 4.07 4.37 1.28 44.8% 15.0% 4.9% 0.75 1.00
Lee PHI 191.2 3.01 3.14 1.04 51.9% 23.5% 4.1% 0.89 1.34
Pettitte NYY 156.1 4.03 4.17 1.39 42.3% 16.2% 6.2% 0.86 1.44
Feldman BAL 160.1 3.54 4.03 1.15 50.0% 17.3% 6.8% 0.79 1.59
Wilson LAA 184.0 3.42 4.09 1.38 48.3% 20.2% 9.2% 0.68 1.37
Dickey TOR 197.0 4.29 4.26 1.27 43.3% 18.4% 7.8% 1.37 1.00
Dempster BOS 157.2 4.79 4.21 1.45 33.3% 20.7% 9.9% 1.43 1.08
Cobb TBR 114.1 2.99 3.42 1.19 44.4% 22.3% 7.9% 1.02 2.27
Haren WAS 144.2 5.23 3.66 1.31 38.5% 20.7% 4.2% 1.62 0.80
Wheeler NYM 88.0 3.38 4.33 1.34 46.7% 19.8% 10.3% 0.92 1.21
Minor ATL 179.2 3.06 3.54 1.05 60.7% 22.8% 5.5% 0.90 0.79
Fernandez MIA 165.2 2.23 3.15 0.97 63.0% 27.9% 8.4% 0.49 1.42
Sanchez DET 158.1 2.61 3.21 1.14 64.0% 25.9% 7.1% 0.45 1.34
Quintana CWS 172.2 3.70 3.91 1.23 31.0% 19.8% 6.8% 1.04 1.14
Gray OAK 43.0 2.51 2.96 1.00 83.3% 25.7% 6.4% 0.42 1.85
Pelfrey MIN 139.1 4.97 4.69 1.50 15.4% 14.4% 7.8% 0.78 1.21
Estrada MIL 100.1 4.49 3.57 1.21 35.3% 22.0% 5.3% 1.61 0.91
Lynn STL 177.0 4.37 3.88 1.35 44.8% 22.2% 9.1% 0.71 1.31
Peacock HOU 65.2 5.62 4.39 1.45 27.3% 20.9% 11.0% 1.78 0.75
Maurer SEA 69.2 6.85 4.35 1.65 30.0% 15.8% 7.3% 1.81 1.16
Corbin ARI 190.2 2.97 3.53 1.08 67.9% 21.4% 6.1% 0.71 1.51
Ryu LAD 167.0 3.02 3.66 1.22 57.7% 20.3% 6.7% 0.70 1.66

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

TOP ELEVEN:

anibal-sanchez-300x200

Anibal Sanchez, DET (at CWS) – Do you realize that Sanchez is leading the American League in ERA at 2.61? He’s also leading the AL in HR/9 at just 0.5. He’s been tremendous since the All-Star break with a 2.17 ERA in 66.3 IP over 10 starts with six wins and 57 Ks.

Jose Fernandez, MIA (v. ATL) – This is Fernandez’s finale so you might be sentimental and want to use him. I wouldn’t recommend that being the reason you choose, but lucky for you he’s a great option either way. He’s leading baseball in H/9 rate at a meager 5.8 allowed and he’s leading the NL with 9.9 K/9. It’s been nothing short of a perfect season for the rookie hurler. The Marlins are handling him brilliantly, too.

Cliff Lee, PHI (v. SD) – He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs since August 1st posting a 2.87 ERA in his last seven starts and he was particularly excellent in his last outing going 8 IP/1 ER with 10 Ks against the Braves for his 12th win. The Padres have just a .282 wOBA (22nd-ranked) against lefties on the road in the last month.

Mike Minor, ATL (at MIA) – Minor has actually been a bit uneven against the Marlins this year. In his five starts against them he has allowed 4 ER in three of them and then just 1 ER combined in the other two. He has a 2-1 record against them, but considering how horrible they are it should probably be better. Minor does have a 1.13 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, and 3.6 K/BB ratio against them so I’m certainly not suggesting he’s been terrible.

Sonny Gray, OAK (at MIN) – Gray has been very impressive in his MLB debut with excellent work in seven of his eight appearances so far. A shellacking in Baltimore at the hands of the O’s is his only blemish (6 ER in 3.3 IP). Beyond that, he’s limited runs, suppressed hits, not allowed walks and missed bats. He has a 5.40 ERA on the road because of that Baltimore outing, but without it he has a 1.80 ERA on the road.

c.j.-wilson-300x200

C.J. Wilson, LAA (at TOR) – Wilson has had a nice season. In fact, he’s won seven straight decisions posting a 3.31 ERA in the 11 starts. He faced the Jays back on August 4th going 7.3 IP and allowing four runs, three of them earned. He also fanned seven and didn’t walk anyone. The Blue Jays have been horrid against lefties since the break and quite a bit worse in last month with an MLB-worst .259 wOBA.

Patrick Corbin, ARI (at LAD) – Corbin has become matchup-proof these days so even a bout against the Dodgers isn’t automatically scary. Although, he’s actually had a pair of rough outings in his last three despite facing Philly and San Francisco – two poor teams. He rebounded against the Giants in his last outing though with an 8 IP/3 ER effort, but unfortunately he was on the other end of “Yusmeiro Petit(player-profile)”:/players/Yusmeiro_Petit-13843’s near-perfecto so he took the loss.

Zack Wheeler, NYM (v. WAS) – Wheeler’s only allowed more than 3 ER just once in nine starts since the All-Star break with a 3.25 ERA and 49 Ks in 55.3 IP. Two starts ago he faced the Nats and had a 6.7 IP/2 ER outing, good for his seventh win.

Alex Cobb, TB (v. BOS) – Cobb’s been great since returning from the DL with a 2.93 ERA in five starts with at least five strikeouts in each of them, too. The Red Sox are really tough and despite yesterday’s 2-0 game between the Rays-Sox, I’m still playing it cautiously with Cobb.

Andy Pettitte, NYY (at BAL) – After getting destroyed by the White Sox on August 5th, Pettitte has put up an excellent six-start stretch with a 1.75 ERA and 3-0 record all while facing Boston and Toronto twice apiece, Detroit, and Baltimore. That’s a beastly lineup of teams to be so good against. The Baltimore outing was two starts ago and he had a 6 IP/2 ER effort in a no-decision.

Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD (v. ARI) – I bumped Ryu down because he’s been out with a sore back since August 30th. Back problems have plagued Dan Haren (who also throws today) and we’ve seen the results so I’m leery of guys with back issues. He’s still a top 11 guy, but down several spots from where he would be if we could guarantee full health.

BOTTOM 5: (in reverse order)

ADVANCED METRICS: September 11th, 2013

VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS OPP vs L/R OTHER ADVANCED STATS
PITCHER wOBA L ERA L wOBA R ERA R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Stults 0.253 3.61 0.345 4.19 0.230 0.670 0.301 3.53 0.268 98.07 65.2%
Lee 0.272 2.91 0.290 3.04 0.254 0.734 0.285 3.03 0.233 104.85 70.5%
Pettitte 0.240 2.51 0.363 4.66 0.251 0.708 0.320 3.78 0.281 94.50 65.4%
Feldman 0.298 3.63 0.299 3.38 0.244 0.687 0.262 3.76 0.230 101.15 60.8%
Wilson 0.246 2.11 0.335 3.83 0.244 0.685 0.305 3.57 0.250 110.41 62.5%
Dickey 0.342 4.60 0.306 4.05 0.270 0.753 0.269 4.62 0.244 103.57 65.1%
Dempster 0.319 4.47 0.379 5.22 0.253 0.739 0.299 4.69 0.258 101.74 61.9%
Cobb 0.304 3.59 0.294 2.01 0.282 0.807 0.277 3.76 0.232 100.22 64.5%
Haren 0.328 5.48 0.360 5.03 0.237 0.679 0.315 4.28 0.276 88.63 65.2%
Wheeler 0.341 4.30 0.292 2.72 0.253 0.711 0.279 4.14 0.236 101.33 61.0%
Minor 0.264 2.57 0.290 3.27 0.226 0.634 0.269 3.21 0.224 97.75 66.5%
Fernandez 0.262 2.87 0.224 1.59 0.253 0.737 0.242 2.64 0.179 92.89 66.6%
Sanchez 0.296 3.36 0.249 1.76 0.253 0.691 0.300 2.49 0.225 102.72 64.5%
Quintana 0.333 3.61 0.304 3.77 0.273 0.782 0.285 3.82 0.246 100.41 62.6%
Gray 0.268 3.04 0.230 1.89 0.238 0.695 0.263 2.37 0.200 79.13 63.3%
Pelfrey 0.340 4.64 0.353 5.46 0.244 0.710 0.325 4.04 0.288 94.27 61.1%
Estrada 0.324 3.91 0.317 5.00 0.284 0.766 0.288 4.28 0.254 93.29 64.9%
Lynn 0.343 5.42 0.302 3.67 0.251 0.713 0.314 3.52 0.250 101.86 63.6%
Peacock 0.394 7.30 0.313 3.49 0.248 0.728 0.273 5.36 0.245 79.33 59.4%
Maurer 0.411 6.93 0.390 7.12 0.237 0.678 0.350 5.47 0.321 66.17 60.5%
Corbin 0.221 2.23 0.299 3.23 0.256 0.710 0.267 3.22 0.221 98.86 65.9%
Ryu 0.337 3.43 0.288 2.89 0.264 0.718 0.299 3.24 0.248 103.92 64.2%

Starting Pitcher Salaries: September 11th, 2013

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.