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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: September 12th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-09-12 20:35:45

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: September 12th, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Ross SDP 103.1 2.79 3.53 1.16 50.0% 23.3% 9.1% 0.52 1.65
Halladay PHI 51.1 7.19 4.64 1.42 50.0% 18.6% 11.3% 1.93 1.11
Rusin CHC 53.0 2.89 4.85 1.38 40.0% 13.3% 9.3% 0.85 1.61
Locke PIT 153.1 3.23 4.58 1.38 40.7% 17.5% 11.9% 0.53 2.07
Hughes NYY 137.1 5.11 4.24 1.43 38.5% 19.0% 6.8% 1.51 0.66
Chen BAL 115.1 3.82 4.42 1.24 36.8% 17.2% 7.2% 1.01 0.81
Richards LAA 122.1 3.90 3.59 1.30 38.5% 17.1% 7.4% 0.66 2.65
Happ TOR 69.0 5.09 4.87 1.51 14.3% 17.6% 11.5% 0.91 0.87
Peavy BOS 125.2 4.01 3.85 1.10 55.0% 20.6% 5.1% 1.29 0.69
Hellickson TBR 159.0 5.04 4.18 1.35 32.1% 17.9% 6.6% 1.13 0.98
Kluber CLE 127.0 3.54 3.16 1.20 35.0% 23.4% 5.2% 0.85 1.69
Danks CWS 127.1 4.45 4.13 1.25 30.0% 16.1% 4.5% 1.84 1.11
Thornburg MIL 47.2 2.08 4.88 1.30 100.0% 15.0% 10.5% 0.19 0.91
Kelly STL 101.2 2.74 4.32 1.41 58.3% 15.5% 8.9% 0.80 1.79
Cain SFG 162.2 4.37 3.90 1.17 51.9% 21.3% 7.6% 1.16 0.92
Greinke LAD 154.2 2.79 3.73 1.15 62.5% 20.4% 6.7% 0.64 1.52

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

TOP EIGHT:

Zack Greinke, LAD (v. SF) – Greinke was his usual self in the first half of the season: plenty of good starts, but the occasional blow up that dented his ERA enough to keep him in the mid-to-high 3.00s. It’s been a much different story since the All-Star break. He’s posted a 1.94 ERA in 10 starts allowing more than 2 ER just once (4 ER on July 25th). He has five starts of 0 or 1 ER, too. He’s been excellent, the ace-level arm the Dodgers were hoping for when they paid him this winter. He’s been a tremendous complement to ace Clayton Kershaw. Oddly enough, he hasn’t faced the division rival Giants yet this year.

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Tyson Ross, SD (at PHI) – Only 3-7, Ross has been MUCH better than his record indicates, especially since the break. He has a 2.16 ERA in nine starts since the break with 63 strikeouts in 58.3 IP of work. Yet he’s just 3-3 because he’s stuck on the Padres. Consider the fact that he’s allowed just 1 ER in 12 IP over his last two starts and yet he’s still 0-0.

Corey Kluber, CLE (at CWS) – Kluber returned from the DL with a solid outing 5 IP/2 ER, though he was just short of a gem. He did pull a win and five strikeouts, though. He gets a White Sox team that he’s faced just once this year and had an OK outing against: 8.7 IP/4 ER with 6 Ks in a no-decision. I love his strikeout potential and even his win potential as the Indians rip lefties. John Danks has been a home run machine this year allowing 26 in 20 starts.

Joe Kelly, STL (v. MIL) – Since joining the rotation in early July, Kelly has a 2.10 ERA and 8-0 record in 11 starts. He’s gone at least six innings in eight of the 11. He’s not much of a strikeout guy so you’re kind of banking on that extra win potential to make up for the lack of Ks, but he’s been undeniably great for the Cards this year. The Brewers have been horrible offensively since the break with a .296 wOBA against righties and even worse lately with a .276 the last two weeks.

Matt Cain, SF (at LAD) – Cain’s season ERA of 4.37 hides his second-half excellence as he’s rallied to shave the horrid 5.00 ERA he took in the All-Star break. He has a 2.84 in eight starts including a 6.3 IP/2 ER effort in his first start back from a minimum stay DL stint. He beat up on the crappy Dodgers early in the season, but he was smashed by them on July 5th with a 2.3 IP/8 ER outing. He’s pitching much better these days so I expect something quite a bit better.

Jake Peavy, BOS (at TB) – Peavy’s Ks have abandoned him as a Red Sock, but everything else has improved as he has a 3.55 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 3-1 record in 7 starts. He did face the Rays as a White Sock and had a 6.7 IP/3 ER outing that he won. He struck out six in that outing back in April, but he’s topped five just once with the Red Sox.

roy-halladay-300x200

Roy Halladay, PHI (v. SD) – Halladay has two gems and one dud since returning from the DL, so what are we getting today? I think we’ve got a great shot at a gem as he’s facing a poor Padres offense. They aren’t too bad against lefties, but they are among baseball’s worst against righties. Their .267 wOBA against righties the last two weeks is the third-worst in baseball.

Tyler Thornburg, MIL (at STL) – Thornburg has started sporadically over the season and has four gems in his four starts, but the component skills are very weak with a near 1:1 K/BB ratio. Plus he’s had a pretty favorable schedule facing the Cubs, Giants, Rangers, and Pirates. The Cardinals are far better than all of those teams. I wouldn’t use him as more than a secondary option.

BOTTOM FOUR:

ADVANCED METRICS: September 12th, 2013

VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS OPP vs L/R OTHER ADVANCED STATS
PITCHER wOBA L ERA L wOBA R ERA R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Ross 0.322 3.54 0.257 2.03 0.254 0.702 0.279 3.14 0.219 53.71 61.7%
Halladay 0.382 8.22 0.333 6.43 0.244 0.677 0.252 6.14 0.239 89.60 58.8%
Rusin 0.272 2.92 0.346 2.93 0.260 0.740 0.281 4.44 0.257 82.60 60.5%
Locke 0.369 4.45 0.298 2.99 0.230 0.689 0.277 3.95 0.233 92.56 58.9%
Hughes 0.365 4.94 0.348 5.40 0.271 0.777 0.319 4.57 0.282 88.63 66.8%
Chen 0.276 2.90 0.332 4.20 0.249 0.681 0.281 4.04 0.250 95.00 65.5%
Richards 0.323 3.82 0.290 4.23 0.255 0.748 0.295 3.52 0.254 46.09 62.0%
Happ 0.344 4.79 0.328 5.03 0.243 0.714 0.286 4.42 0.247 93.71 62.3%
Peavy 0.318 4.18 0.279 3.94 0.253 0.739 0.263 3.90 0.234 101.85 66.9%
Hellickson 0.336 5.07 0.335 5.07 0.282 0.807 0.311 4.08 0.273 93.82 64.4%
Kluber 0.321 3.56 0.300 3.57 0.253 0.691 0.319 3.10 0.257 88.73 65.2%
Danks 0.360 4.96 0.330 4.31 0.263 0.751 0.277 5.01 0.267 100.70 66.2%
Thornburg 0.272 2.25 0.318 1.99 0.284 0.766 0.274 3.51 0.232 52.20 60.7%
Kelly 0.302 3.02 0.341 2.50 0.251 0.713 0.299 4.13 0.263 49.48 61.2%
Cain 0.304 4.13 0.306 4.63 0.271 0.728 0.260 3.98 0.225 97.19 64.0%
Greinke 0.347 3.88 0.243 2.00 0.261 0.701 0.283 3.27 0.234 101.58 62.4%

Starting Pitcher Salaries: September 12th, 2013

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.