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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: September 17th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-09-17 19:34:04

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: September 17th, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Maurer SEA 72.2 7.18 4.27 1.68 27.3% 16.0% 6.9% 1.73 1.22
Sanchez DET 165.2 2.50 3.20 1.15 65.4% 26.3% 7.4% 0.43 1.40
Garcia ATL 66.2 4.86 4.56 1.26 45.5% 11.9% 5.1% 2.30 1.36
Roark WAS 34.2 1.30 3.45 0.92 100.0% 20.2% 6.2% 0.00 1.52
Stults SDP 185.1 4.03 4.33 1.27 46.7% 15.2% 4.8% 0.83 1.00
Locke PIT 160.1 3.14 4.52 1.34 42.9% 17.6% 11.7% 0.51 2.08
Flynn MIA 8.0 10.13 6.77 2.63 0.0% 14.0% 20.9% 3.38 1.33
Halladay PHI 55.2 7.28 4.70 1.47 45.5% 19.3% 12.2% 1.94 1.07
Pettitte NYY 162.2 4.04 4.18 1.40 40.7% 16.0% 6.1% 0.83 1.44
Dickey TOR 202.1 4.36 4.29 1.28 41.9% 18.1% 7.8% 1.38 1.02
Feldman BAL 168.0 3.54 4.00 1.13 48.1% 17.5% 6.8% 0.86 1.63
Dempster BOS 162.2 4.70 4.22 1.46 32.1% 21.0% 10.3% 1.38 1.10
Petit SFG 32.0 2.53 2.60 1.00 75.0% 29.6% 4.8% 0.28 0.94
Wheeler NYM 95.0 3.22 4.24 1.34 50.0% 19.9% 9.8% 0.95 1.29
Ogando TEX 84.2 3.30 4.75 1.25 26.7% 16.5% 9.4% 1.06 0.82
Hellickson TBR 164.1 5.04 4.15 1.34 31.0% 18.3% 6.8% 1.20 0.97
Samardzija CHC 194.2 4.44 3.62 1.36 43.3% 23.4% 8.6% 1.06 1.52
Estrada MIL 107.0 4.29 3.59 1.18 38.9% 22.2% 5.7% 1.51 0.92
Leake CIN 182.2 3.35 4.18 1.24 51.7% 15.0% 6.1% 0.99 1.66
Lyles HOU 135.1 4.92 4.34 1.43 34.8% 15.1% 7.1% 1.06 1.60
Kluber CLE 132.0 3.55 3.24 1.20 33.3% 22.8% 5.2% 0.89 1.59
Ventura KCR Debut
Pelfrey MIN 142.1 5.31 4.70 1.53 14.8% 14.3% 7.8% 0.82 1.20
Quintana CWS 179.2 3.56 3.91 1.22 33.3% 19.9% 6.8% 1.00 1.15
Kelly STL 106.2 2.87 4.28 1.42 53.8% 15.6% 8.7% 0.84 1.80
Nicasio COL 147.1 4.58 4.48 1.41 28.6% 16.8% 9.0% 1.04 1.32
Greinke LAD 160.2 2.74 3.74 1.15 64.0% 20.4% 6.7% 0.67 1.50
Corbin ARI 197.0 2.92 3.59 1.09 69.0% 20.9% 6.1% 0.73 1.53
Richards LAA 129.0 3.91 3.59 1.31 35.7% 16.9% 7.2% 0.70 2.63
Gray OAK 48.0 2.63 2.99 1.04 71.4% 26.6% 7.3% 0.38 1.83

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

TOP 14:

Anibal Sanchez, DET (v. SEA) – Sanchez, the AL’s ERA leader, continues to dominate. He’s gone 6.7 IP or more in seven of his last eight starts yielding a 5-0 record, 2.30 ERA, and 1.08 WHIP in 54.7 IP. He has 58 Ks during the run and 15 Ks in his last two starts over 14.3 IP.

zack-greinke-300x200

Zack Greinke, LAD (at ARI) – Greinke has a pair of 7 IP gems against the D’Backs this year, but he hasn’t faced them since July 8th. He hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any of his last nine starts posting a 1.58 ERA in the 62.7 IP with 58 Ks and a 6-0 record. In fact, he deserved a better fate in his last two outings getting stuck with a pair of no-decisions despite going 6 IP/2 ER at CIN and 6 IP/1 ER v. SF. The Dodgers will have to figure out a way to score against Greinke’s counterpart, though…

Patrick Corbin, ARI (v. LAD) – After a pair of duds (13 ER in 10.3 IP), Corbin has rebounded allowing 4 ER in 14.3 IP including 6.3 IP/1 ER against these Dodgers his last time out. We could see something similar to what happened two starts ago when Corbin went 8 IP/3 ER in San Francisco on the wrong end of a near-perfect game. I’m not saying Greinke will be near-perfect, just that we could see a great outing from Corbin in a losing effort in what should be a pitcher’s duel all night.

Zack Wheeler, NYM (v. SF) – Wheeler is closing the season brilliantly with a 2.44 ERA in his last seven starts. He’s gone at least six innings in six of them netting 40 Ks, but only a 3-3 record thanks to the supporting cast on the Mets. He had a 7 IP/1 ER outing against the Giants back in July and he’s pitching even better now.

Mike Leake, CIN (at HOU) – Leake had a terrible August (6.44 ERA) which melted into September with a trip to Coors Field giving him a 7.22 ERA in six starts. He’s been sharp in his last two, though, posting a 1.35 ERA in 13.3 IP against the Dodgers and Cubs with 11 strikeouts and two wins. Now he gets a two-pack against the Astros and Pirates this week so he should get a lot of burn in daily leagues throughout the week. It’s not exactly the same team, but Leake had a 2.92 ERA against the Astros over 24.7 IP last year.

marco-estrada-300x200

Marco Estrada, MIL (v. CHC) – Even with two 4 ER outings in his six outings since coming back from the DL, Estrada still has a 2.39 ERA in 37.7 IP because he’s allowed exactly 2 ER in the other four starts. Despite posting a 5.32 ERA in his first 12 starts, two of his best came against the Cubs (7 IP/2 ER, 6 IP/3 ER) and I’m liking him for a third tonight.

Corey Kluber, CLE (at KC) – Kluber has a pair of 5 IP/2 ER starts since returning from the DL earning wins in both and being extended to 87 pitches in the second. Hopefully they are just slowly bringing back his pitch totals and they push him into the upper-90s, lower-100s this week which should afford him at least six innings, if not more. He has a 2.70 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 20 IP across three starts against the Royals this year.

tanner-roark-300x200

Tanner Roark, WAS (v. ATL) – Roark’s been a godsend for the Nats in their last ditch effort to somehow make the playoffs. He’s 6-0 with a 1.30 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 34.7 IP split between starting and relieving. He’s got a pair of gems in his two starts shutting out the Marlins for six the first time and going 6 IP/2 ER against the Mets his last time out. The Braves haven’t been all that much better than those two teams in the month of September with a .297 wOBA compared to the .267 and .257 of NYM and MIA.

Jose Quintana, CWS (v. MIN) – Quintana’s allowed more than 3 ER just once in his last 14 posting a 3.12 ERA in 86.7 IP and he’s particularly hot of late with a 2.97 ERA in his last six starts spanning 36.3 IP including a pair of 7 IP outings against BAL and DET his last two times out. He’s just 7-6 this year which tells you plenty about his supporting cast both at the dish and in the bullpen.

Sonny Gray, OAK (v. LAA) – Gray has just one bad start since joining the rotation. He has a 2.86 ERA in his seven starts with the 3.3 IP/6 ER dud in Baltimore being the only poor outing. He was a little shaky against Minnesota going only five as they ran up his pitch count to 91 in that time. He still managed 7 Ks and a win, though. The Angels can go off as Jarrod Parker learned yesterday which is why Gray is lower than you might think he should be based on his numbers.

yusmeiro-petit-300x200

Yusmeiro Petit, SF (at NYM) – Petit wasn’t too bad in his follow up to the near-perfect game with a 5.7 IP/3 ER outing and 7 Ks against the Rockies. He’s living off of his command as he usually hits the zone too much with modest stuff, but he’s finally placing it well. The Mets are 24th in home runs against righties so he has a bit more margin for error even if his command isn’t perfect tonight, too. I still prefer him as a secondary option only, but coming into the season I’d have never thought he could become even that.

Garrett Richards, LAA (at OAK) – Richards is having a great September so far with a 2.41 ERA in 18.7 IP over three starts yielding a 3-0 record, but the A’s are rolling, too. They have baseball’s third-best wOBA against righties this month at .369, though it’s just .348 at home. I really like Richards’s pure stuff, but he’s still learning how to best use it so he can get hit around every once in a while. His worst start of the year, oddly enough, came against the Astros when he allowed 12 hits and 5 ER in 6 IP of work. I wouldn’t use him as my #1 SP today, but he’s OK as a low-dollar #2 or #3 pitcher.

Joe Kelly, STL (at COL) – I’m a little nervous with Kelly in Coors Field. Working in his favor is that fact that he does have a 51 percent groundball rate, but going against him is of course just Coors as a whole and also the fact that he doesn’t miss many bats. He has just a 16 percent strikeout rate. It’s just about home runs in Coors Field, but the fact that their expansive outfield allows a ton of base hits so Kelly’s allowance of lots of contact puts him in danger. I wouldn’t use him as anything more than a secondary option here.

Roy Halladay, PHI (v. MIA) – I never thought I’d be saying that Halladay is a secondary option at best, but that’s all he is right now and that’s only because he’s facing the Marlins. He just has zero command these days and that’s what made him a superstar so you know something is off. Don’t just get wide-eyed because he’s facing Miami, consider everything here and be very careful.

BOTTOM SIX:

ADVANCED METRICS: September 17th, 2013

VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS OPP vs L/R OTHER ADVANCED STATS
PITCHER wOBA L ERA L wOBA R ERA R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Maurer 0.406 7.32 0.402 7.39 0.293 0.796 0.360 5.29 0.327 66.16 60.5%
Sanchez 0.298 3.34 0.245 1.61 0.246 0.723 0.300 2.47 0.224 103.23 64.2%
Garcia 0.371 5.40 0.313 4.36 0.258 0.734 0.250 6.05 0.267 66.40 65.1%
Roark 0.276 2.45 0.180 0.45 0.252 0.735 0.253 2.24 0.198 42.09 67.0%
Stults 0.246 3.49 0.347 4.19 0.263 0.740 0.299 3.60 0.268 97.73 65.2%
Locke 0.352 4.13 0.295 2.95 0.254 0.727 0.273 3.87 0.229 92.82 59.0%
Flynn 0.716 27.00 0.495 9.00 0.235 0.680 0.360 9.80 0.353 88.50 55.9%
Halladay 0.384 8.53 0.339 6.30 0.230 0.613 0.255 6.25 0.238 90.64 58.6%
Pettitte 0.248 2.45 0.362 4.68 0.241 0.682 0.323 3.74 0.283 95.04 65.3%
Dickey 0.341 4.54 0.310 4.25 0.245 0.694 0.271 4.65 0.246 103.19 65.1%
Feldman 0.299 3.72 0.292 3.30 0.284 0.819 0.255 3.85 0.225 101.56 60.9%
Dempster 0.318 4.32 0.382 5.20 0.267 0.767 0.300 4.67 0.257 101.89 61.6%
Petit 0.187 2.08 0.275 2.84 0.238 0.679 0.309 1.70 0.218 94.60 70.0%
Wheeler 0.340 4.05 0.293 2.65 0.264 0.706 0.282 4.10 0.239 101.31 61.5%
Ogando 0.269 2.47 0.369 4.59 0.250 0.734 0.256 4.56 0.232 79.83 63.1%
Hellickson 0.342 5.24 0.327 4.86 0.261 0.731 0.308 4.17 0.271 94.17 64.3%
Samardzija 0.351 4.72 0.320 4.31 0.250 0.702 0.314 3.80 0.254 105.57 62.9%
Estrada 0.313 3.62 0.311 4.89 0.241 0.702 0.280 4.18 0.246 93.72 65.0%
Leake 0.306 2.87 0.321 3.79 0.239 0.679 0.279 4.06 0.254 94.90 63.3%
Lyles 0.337 4.81 0.376 5.14 0.254 0.730 0.304 4.44 0.274 91.72 60.7%
Kluber 0.324 3.54 0.301 3.59 0.261 0.696 0.318 3.19 0.258 88.65 65.2%
Ventura 0.245 0.717
Pelfrey 0.351 5.20 0.355 5.55 0.251 0.682 0.331 4.13 0.294 93.67 60.9%
Quintana 0.333 3.51 0.303 3.61 0.253 0.706 0.284 3.77 0.244 100.87 62.7%
Kelly 0.302 3.08 0.346 2.68 0.268 0.748 0.301 4.15 0.266 50.79 61.1%
Nicasio 0.321 5.17 0.356 4.08 0.277 0.747 0.290 4.35 0.256 93.96 61.9%
Greinke 0.341 3.69 0.245 2.05 0.258 0.717 0.280 3.32 0.233 101.80 62.5%
Corbin 0.227 2.18 0.302 3.17 0.256 0.708 0.268 3.29 0.224 98.97 65.9%
Richards 0.336 4.06 0.284 3.94 0.250 0.730 0.299 3.56 0.258 47.32 62.2%
Gray 0.267 3.29 0.241 1.77 0.270 0.753 0.272 2.34 0.202 80.44 63.0%

Starting Pitcher Salaries: September 17th, 2013

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

daily%20pitcher%20chart%202

NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window


Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: September 17th, 2013

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

BEST BUYS:

ADVANCED METRICS: September 17th, 2013

Starting Pitcher Salaries: September 17th, 2013

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

daily%20pitcher%20chart%202

NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window

About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.