Daily Pitcher Breakdown: September 3rd
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buchanan | PHI | ATL | 89.1 | 4.03 | 4.07 | 1.29 | 20.0% | 14.7% | 5.8% | 1.01 | 1.69 |
| Santana | ATL | PHI | 168.1 | 3.53 | 3.51 | 1.27 | 38.9% | 22.4% | 7.5% | 0.70 | 1.46 |
| Volquez | PIT | STL | 159.1 | 3.45 | 4.31 | 1.28 | 50.0% | 16.1% | 8.6% | 0.90 | 1.55 |
| Miller | STL | PIT | 152.2 | 4.19 | 4.85 | 1.36 | 21.1% | 15.6% | 10.5% | 1.18 | 0.99 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | LAD | 165.2 | 2.93 | 3.21 | 1.14 | 52.6% | 22.0% | 3.7% | 0.60 | 1.22 |
| Frias | LAD | WAS | 14.1 | 5.65 | 3.24 | 1.05 | 17.2% | 3.5% | 1.26 | 1.44 | |
| Vogelsong | SFG | COL | 157 | 3.73 | 3.90 | 1.24 | 52.6% | 19.5% | 6.7% | 0.75 | 0.98 |
| Bergman | COL | SFG | 26.2 | 5.74 | 4.97 | 1.61 | 33.3% | 13.1% | 7.4% | 1.69 | 0.70 |
| Hernandez | SEA | OAK | 198 | 2.23 | 2.48 | 0.91 | 81.0% | 26.9% | 4.6% | 0.59 | 2.12 |
| Lester | OAK | SEA | 183.2 | 2.55 | 3.06 | 1.11 | 65.0% | 25.0% | 5.4% | 0.59 | 1.18 |
| Ranaudo | BOS | NYY | 18 | 4.50 | 6.05 | 1.39 | 9.0% | 10.3% | 2.00 | 0.61 | |
| Kuroda | NYY | BOS | 167 | 3.88 | 3.94 | 1.18 | 45.0% | 16.1% | 5.0% | 0.86 | 1.43 |
| Verlander | DET | CLE | 171.1 | 4.68 | 4.28 | 1.45 | 35.0% | 17.6% | 8.0% | 0.84 | 0.99 |
| Salazar | CLE | DET | 78.2 | 4.23 | 3.56 | 1.40 | 12.5% | 24.3% | 8.2% | 1.14 | 0.78 |
| Axelrod | CIN | BAL | 11 | 1.64 | 2.64 | 1.18 | 33.3% | 8.9% | 1.64 | 0.80 | |
| Gonzalez | BAL | CIN | 127 | 3.61 | 4.44 | 1.35 | 40.0% | 16.4% | 7.7% | 1.56 | 0.89 |
| Degrom | NYM | MIA | 113.1 | 2.94 | 3.53 | 1.20 | 50.0% | 22.9% | 8.0% | 0.56 | 1.40 |
| Koehler | MIA | NYM | 161.1 | 3.79 | 4.18 | 1.25 | 52.6% | 18.6% | 8.6% | 0.78 | 1.11 |
| Stroman | TOR | TBR | 99.2 | 3.88 | 3.38 | 1.21 | 66.7% | 20.5% | 6.0% | 0.54 | 1.78 |
| Archer | TBR | TOR | 161.1 | 3.40 | 3.72 | 1.33 | 55.0% | 21.7% | 9.0% | 0.39 | 1.63 |
| Garza | MIL | CHC | 145.2 | 3.58 | 4.14 | 1.13 | 35.0% | 17.4% | 7.2% | 0.62 | 1.19 |
| Hendricks | CHC | MIL | 56.2 | 1.91 | 4.04 | 1.01 | 15.3% | 5.4% | 0.48 | 1.51 | |
| Weaver | LAA | HOU | 181.1 | 3.57 | 4.35 | 1.22 | 52.4% | 18.1% | 7.5% | 1.09 | 0.66 |
| McHugh | HOU | LAA | 126.1 | 2.99 | 3.26 | 1.12 | 42.9% | 25.5% | 7.7% | 0.78 | 1.23 |
| Tepesch | TEX | KCR | 97.1 | 4.44 | 5.04 | 1.36 | 27.3% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 1.11 | 1.19 |
| Vargas | KCR | TEX | 162.1 | 3.27 | 4.16 | 1.24 | 68.4% | 15.8% | 5.0% | 0.83 | 1.03 |
| Danks | CWS | MIN | 164 | 4.88 | 4.68 | 1.47 | 50.0% | 15.0% | 8.6% | 1.32 | 1.05 |
| May | MIN | CWS | 19 | 10.42 | 5.39 | 2.32 | 15.3% | 14.3% | 0.95 | 0.96 | |
| Collmenter | ARI | SDP | 144 | 3.94 | 4.11 | 1.21 | 29.4% | 17.0% | 5.8% | 1.06 | 0.92 |
| Cashner | SDP | ARI | 87.1 | 2.37 | 3.66 | 1.21 | 75.0% | 18.5% | 6.5% | 0.31 | 1.89 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
PLATINUM BUYS:
These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.
Felix Hernandez SEA (at OAK)
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (at LAD)
Jon Lester OAK (v. SEA)
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Ervin Santana ATL (v. PHI) – Despite back-to-back 1 ER outings his last two times out, Santana is just 0-1 thanks to meager run support. He’s got a 2.85 ERA in his last 11 starts with 69 Ks in 72.7 IP. Santana has handled the Phillies in four starts already this year with a 3.28 ERA and 22 Ks in 24.7 IP. Santana carries reliability, but also has big upside with three 10+ K games that includes one against the Phillies back on April 14th.
Jacob deGrom NYM (at MIA) – He had a couple of rough innings in his return from the DL (6 IP/5 ER), but followed it up with seven strong against Philly (7 IP/1 UnER). He is still missing plenty of bats (12 in 13 IP over his last two) with a clean 1.00 WHIP. deGrom has smoked Miami in a pair of starts against them this year including a 7 IP/1 ER start with 8 Ks back on July 13th. The Marlins have essentially been a 1-man show since August (Stanton had a .998 OPS with 8 HRs in Aug) and deGrom has held him to a 1-for-4 in six plate appearances (two walks) this year.
Andrew Cashner SD (v. ARI) – Cashner was great in his second start back from the DL with a big effort against LAD (6 IP/1ER, 8 Ks) and while I’m still not sure we are going to see him go over 100 pitches in any of his remaining outings, he can still deliver big value in the 85-95 pitch range as we saw his last time out (89 pitches). It’s only been 14 starts on the season, but he’s really leveraged Petco this year with a 1.40 ERA in eight starts (51.3 IP) with stronger component numbers than on the road. Arizona doesn’t worry me as an opponent, especially without Paul Goldschmidt (3.26 runs per game without him) or on the road (27th-best OPS).
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Matt Garza MIL (at CHC) – Garza is back after a missed month so even with the juicy matchup, he needs to be dropped down a tier into the Silver category. After that ugly 0.3 IP/5 ER nightmare in Washington, he had gotten on a mini-roll before the injury with a 0.86 ERA and 0.52 WHIP in three starts, although with just 10 Ks in 21 IP. He has a pair of strong 7 IP/7 K outings against his former mates this year.
Marcus Stroman TOR (at TB) and Chris Archer TB (v. TOR) – I’m really starting to see these guys similarly. Their upside is substantial, but they will throw in that disaster outing every once in a while. I have to give Archer the slight edge over Stroman in a one-on-one because he has so much more experience, but Stroman has developed quickly and become a real force. They both have risk, but neither is priced so high that the risk isn’t worth taking.
Collin McHugh HOU (v. LAA) – I started to buy-in on McHugh after he handled himself quite well against the Angels in twice in a three start stretch (starts six and eight on the season). I watched both and I was really impressed with that breaking ball of his. He’s gotten 59 of his 131 strikeouts (45%) with the pitch while holding batters to a .142 AVG in 113 AB. It’s a tough matchup, but we are 21 starts into his 2.99 ERA.
Tom Koehler MIA (v. NYM) – Koehler had a 3.18 ERA through May, but with just a 1.6 K:BB ratio, it was hard to really believe it would hold. The ERA has in fact regressed, but the skills have gotten markedly better. He has a 4.24 ERA in 16 starts since June 1st, but also a 2.7 K:BB ratio with 81 Ks in 93.3 IP. Shifting the focus to his more recent work shows that those enhanced skills are paying off in the form of a 3.44 ERA over his last nine starts while mostly holding that K:BB ratio jump with a 2.5 mark in that stretch. The Mets got to him in April (5 IP/4 ER), but he’s handled them in three starts since (2.11 ERA in 21.3 IP).
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
David Buchanan PHI (at ATL) – Buchanan has continued his streak of starts with three or fewer earned runs with an 11th his last time out. He now has a 3.29 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 2.2 K:BB ratio during the streak. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats and an underwhelming fastball mitigates his ceiling, but he has some solid secondary stuff to keep hitters off balance and pile up outs. We didn’t need the combined no-hitter to see how susceptible the Braves are to a clinker as they have been very hit-or-miss this season.
Miguel Gonzalez BAL (v. CIN) – If Gonzalez hadn’t gotten smashed by Detroit in his season opener (3.3 IP/7 ER), I think he’d be more prominent on the radar. He has allowed more than 3 ER just twice in 123.7 IP since then (both were 4 ER outings) and he’s been on fire since July with a 2.33 ERA in 54 IP over eight starts. He is like a right-handed Wei-Yin Chen. You can get a really nice outing at a very good price.
Kyle Hendricks CHC (v. MIL) – Only rain could slow Hendricks in August. He managed only two innings before the rain on August 23rd, but he still wound up with a 1.69 ERA in six August starts. He only fanned 20 in 37.3 IP, but still managed a sharp 3.3 K:BB ratio. His best outing to date came against the Brewers when he threw 7.3 shutout innings. He usually won’t make your day with some breakout performance, but for his cost, he delivers big value.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Shelby Miller STL (v. PIT)
- Ryan Vogelsong SF (at COL)
- Christian Bergman COL (v. SF)
- Trevor May MIN (v. CWS)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buchanan | 0.259 | 2.27 | 0.366 | 5.44 | 0.241 | 0.666 | 0.289 | 4.23 | 0.263 | 92.33 | 14.7% |
| Santana | 0.335 | 3.59 | 0.290 | 3.47 | 0.243 | 0.661 | 0.317 | 3.29 | 0.254 | 97.50 | 22.4% |
| Volquez | 0.326 | 3.90 | 0.299 | 3.12 | 0.254 | 0.686 | 0.269 | 4.36 | 0.24 | 92.96 | 16.1% |
| Miller | 0.328 | 4.71 | 0.323 | 3.73 | 0.260 | 0.743 | 0.260 | 4.88 | 0.24 | 89.81 | 15.6% |
| Zimmermann | 0.306 | 3.19 | 0.275 | 2.67 | 0.265 | 0.728 | 0.316 | 2.73 | 0.255 | 90.15 | 22.0% |
| Frias | 0.245 | 0.704 | 0.250 | 3.96 | 0.232 | 24.00 | 17.2% | ||||
| Vogelsong | 0.340 | 4.09 | 0.296 | 3.42 | 0.274 | 0.756 | 0.296 | 3.58 | 0.248 | 95.37 | 19.5% |
| Bergman | 0.275 | 1.42 | 0.494 | 9.64 | 0.249 | 0.689 | 0.315 | 5.38 | 0.301 | 89.00 | 13.1% |
| Hernandez | 0.229 | 1.06 | 0.266 | 3.68 | 0.250 | 0.721 | 0.261 | 2.51 | 0.201 | 102.68 | 26.9% |
| Lester | 0.290 | 1.93 | 0.277 | 2.73 | 0.246 | 0.646 | 0.301 | 2.67 | 0.233 | 109.04 | 25.0% |
| Ranaudo | 0.244 | 0.685 | 0.220 | 6.57 | 0.243 | 93.67 | 9.0% | ||||
| Kuroda | 0.303 | 3.86 | 0.297 | 3.91 | 0.242 | 0.677 | 0.278 | 3.77 | 0.248 | 98.00 | 16.1% |
| Verlander | 0.305 | 3.23 | 0.387 | 6.85 | 0.258 | 0.737 | 0.319 | 3.92 | 0.273 | 106.44 | 17.6% |
| Salazar | 0.289 | 3.15 | 0.366 | 5.08 | 0.271 | 0.741 | 0.330 | 3.85 | 0.264 | 91.93 | 24.3% |
| Axelrod | 0.258 | 0.727 | 0.292 | 3.85 | 0.22 | 101.50 | 33.3% | ||||
| Gonzalez | 0.346 | 2.96 | 0.344 | 4.50 | 0.240 | 0.664 | 0.279 | 5.16 | 0.261 | 93.50 | 16.4% |
| Degrom | 0.310 | 2.42 | 0.271 | 3.32 | 0.247 | 0.696 | 0.296 | 3.06 | 0.233 | 101.33 | 22.9% |
| Koehler | 0.275 | 2.93 | 0.329 | 4.71 | 0.234 | 0.664 | 0.276 | 3.90 | 0.236 | 91.41 | 18.6% |
| Stroman | 0.295 | 3.46 | 0.288 | 4.34 | 0.248 | 0.688 | 0.304 | 3.04 | 0.248 | 78.86 | 20.5% |
| Archer | 0.284 | 2.82 | 0.310 | 4.13 | 0.266 | 0.759 | 0.312 | 3.11 | 0.244 | 98.52 | 21.7% |
| Garza | 0.283 | 3.43 | 0.275 | 3.71 | 0.231 | 0.666 | 0.255 | 3.52 | 0.221 | 96.74 | 17.4% |
| Hendricks | 0.256 | 1.40 | 0.255 | 2.32 | 0.257 | 0.723 | 0.246 | 3.41 | 0.216 | 90.11 | 15.3% |
| Weaver | 0.318 | 3.61 | 0.282 | 3.52 | 0.230 | 0.673 | 0.265 | 4.23 | 0.236 | 98.41 | 18.1% |
| McHugh | 0.288 | 2.79 | 0.277 | 3.25 | 0.254 | 0.712 | 0.277 | 3.26 | 0.217 | 100.67 | 25.5% |
| Tepesch | 0.329 | 4.84 | 0.357 | 3.86 | 0.261 | 0.684 | 0.273 | 4.96 | 0.262 | 86.83 | 11.4% |
| Vargas | 0.303 | 2.34 | 0.311 | 3.60 | 0.269 | 0.745 | 0.297 | 3.73 | 0.263 | 102.56 | 15.8% |
| Danks | 0.325 | 3.40 | 0.365 | 5.40 | 0.251 | 0.689 | 0.294 | 5.02 | 0.271 | 104.11 | 15.0% |
| May | 0.428 | 12.00 | 0.256 | 0.722 | 0.431 | 5.44 | 0.366 | 0.00 | 15.3% | ||
| Collmenter | 0.347 | 3.63 | 0.282 | 4.21 | 0.229 | 0.639 | 0.281 | 4.00 | 0.253 | 79.89 | 17.0% |
| Cashner | 0.303 | 3.23 | 0.261 | 1.68 | 0.250 | 0.689 | 0.292 | 2.87 | 0.24 | 94.21 | 18.5% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window