Cowboys vs. Jaguars Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Cowboys vs. Jaguars Odds
| Cowboys Odds | -4 | | Jaguars Odds | +4 | | Over/Under | 48 | | Date | Sun, Dec. 18 | | Time | 1:00 p.m. | | TV | FOX
In Week 15, the Dallas Cowboys will travel to Florida to play the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field. Entering play, Dallas is tied for the second best record in the NFC, but they remain two games behind the Philadelphia Eagles for first place in the NFC East division standings. Jacksonville is 5-8 after winning three of their last five contests, but their playoff hopes are quickly dwindling in a highly-competitive AFC. On Sunday, oddsmakers are expecting Dallas to come away with a victory, pricing the Cowboys as 4-point road favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Dallas Cowboys
Since Dak Prescott returned to the field in Week 7, the Cowboys are 6-1 overall, with their lone loss during that stretch coming on the road at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers – a game in which Dallas led by as many as 14 points in the fourth quarter. However, this group will be dealing with a new offensive line in Week 15 after losing starting right tackle Terence Steele to injured reserve after he suffered an injury last weekend against the Houston Texans. Per Pro Football Focus, Steele graded as the 5th-best run blocker at his position this season, production which will not be easy for this organization to replace. On a more positive note, offensive lineman Tyron Smith is poised to play in his first game of the season this Sunday in Jacksonville. Since being drafted in 2011, Smith has been elite as both a run- and pass-blocker. Head Coach Mike McCarththy said that Smith will assume responsibilities at right tackle going forward, but that he will be on a pitch count this weekend in his first live game action of 2022. There is no shortage of talent at the skill positions for this offense, but any lack of cohesion at the line of scrimmage could disrupt timing and cause issues that do not show up in recent game data. This is a high variance group in this matchup.
Dallas should be able to dominate the line of scrimmage in this contest against a Jacksonville offensive line that ranks 30th in the NFL in run-blocking grade this fall. Entering play, the Cowboys rank 3rd among all teams in defensive EPA/play through the first 14 weeks of the season. Since Prescott returned from injury in Week 7, this group has been even better – ranking 2nd in defensive EPA/play across their last seven games. Defensive tackle Dorance Armstrong is considered questionable to play in this one after leaving last week’s game with an ankle injury, but his absence would not have a tremendous impact on the production from this unit.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Heading into the weekend, Trevor Lawrence and right guard Brandon Scherff are both listed as questionable, though beat writer John Shipley believes both players are likely to suit-up after each logged a limited practice session on Friday. Across his last five games, Lawrence has been outstanding, with a 10-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and two 300-yard passing performances. However, he has taken 11 sacks in his last four games due primarily to poor play from his offensive line. This weekend, the Jaguars will have the difficult task of playing a Dallas defense that leads the NFL in sacks per pass attempt this fall – which makes it even more important that Scherff, one of Jacksonville’s better pass-blocking offensive lineman, is able to take the field. Per Pro Football Focus, Lawrence ranks 58th among all quarterbacks this season in passing grade when under pressure, in addition to having the 8th-highest turnover-worthy-play rate. If Jacksonville is unable to protect Lawrence in this spot, it could be a difficult day for this offense.
Defensively, Jacksonville has listed cornerback Darious Williams, safety Andrew Wingard, and linebackers Travon Walker and Chad Muma as questionable on the final injury report of the week. Each of the aforementioned players were able to log a limited practice on Friday, with the exception of Walker who seems to be trending towards being inactive for this contest. If Walker is unable to play, Jacksonville will be missing a key member of their defense, who had played at least 45 snaps in every game in 2022 prior to leaving last week’s game early due to injury. On the season, the Jaguars rank 22nd overall in defensive EPA/play, but they have regressed as the season has progressed. Since Week 9, Jacksonville has been particularly vulnerable in the secondary, ranking 31st in Dropback EPA/play.
Cowboys vs. Jaguars – Picks & Predictions
Since Week 7, Dallas ranks 4th in the NFL in offensive EPA/play, with Jacksonville not far behind, ranking 10th. In that same stretch, the Jaguars defense has been extremely poor – ranking 30th in defensive EPA/play. On the surface, these numbers might be enough to entice a number of bettors into a wager on the over in this spot. However, the new pieces present on the Dallas offensive line, coupled with the fact that Trevor Lawrence has struggled mightily when under duress this year could lead to a lower-scoring affair – at least out of the gate. Take the first half under in this one.
PICK: Under 23.5 first half (-115, DraftKings)
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