Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Odds, Preview, Picks and Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2021-11-17 22:38:24

Mavericks vs. Suns Odds Preview

On Wednesday evening, the Dallas Mavericks and the Phoenix Suns will battle at the Footprint Center. The Mavericks enter play having won five of their last six contests, but they will be without Luka Doncic tonight as they look to continue their recent hot streak. Phoenix enters this matchup on an NBA-best nine-game winning streak, but will be playing their third game in three different cities in four nights in this one. Oddsmakers anticipate a relatively easy win for the Suns in this affair, pricing Phoenix as 8.5-point home favorites on the spread.

Let’s take a closer look at Mavericks vs. Suns odds and NBA betting tips for tonight’s matchup on ESPN.

Dallas Mavericks (+8.5)

Dallas has won nine of their first 13 games this fall, but their record is slightly misleading to the casual sports bettor. Excluding garbage time, Dallas ranks only 20th in effective field goal percentage, and only 16th in defensive efficiency, per Cleaning the Glass. Life is likely to be even more difficult for the Mavericks this evening without their best player, Doncic in the lineup.

Doncic is leading Dallas in scoring, rebounding, and passing—averaging 24.9 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 7.9 assists per night. In his absence, Kristaps Porzingis, Jalen Brunson, and Tim Hardaway Jr. are going to be expected to take on the extra load. Porzingis has played in only eight games this season, but has been sharp, posting season averages of 19.3 points and 7.9 rebounds when he has been on the floor. Brunson has been phenomenal, contributing 15.1 points off of the bench this year. However, Brunson’s 50.7 shooting percentage could take a hit in this one if he is forced to play more minutes against the opposing team’s starting unit.

When Porzingis, Brunson, and Hardaway have been on the floor together this season, Dallas has struggled to generate much offensive success inside the three-point line—shooting only 38.5 percent on mid-range shots, and only 56.0 percent at the rim, which ranks in the seventh percentile in the league. The Suns rank only 17th in the NBA defending the perimeter so far this season, but Phoenix held their opponents to a stifling 35.4 percent shooting from beyond the arc in a larger sample size last year. It could be difficult for Dallas to score points tonight in the desert.

Phoenix Suns (-8.5)

Phoenix’s most common starting lineup, featuring Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, and Deandre Ayton, is arguably the best starting five in the entire NBA. This is hardly a bold take after this group emerged as Western Conference Champions in last year’s postseason. Still, there were more than a few pundits that remained skeptical of this team’s ability to perform at a high-level again during the 2021-2022 campaign.

Through the first month of the regular season, Phoenix is one of only five teams in the league with 10 or more wins. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Suns rank seventh in effective field goal percentage on the offensive end of the floor. They also own the fourth-best defensive efficiency in the NBA. Part of what makes this team so dangerous is that they do not rely exclusively on one or two players to win games on a nightly basis.

Booker has been solid to start the year, averaging 22.9 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.5 assists. Yet, he has not played to his expectations, as he is only shooting 43.1 percent from the floor and 36.3 percent from beyond the arc. Ayton is averaging a double-double, but has only played seven games due to injury. Paul is leading the NBA in assists per night (10.2), but lacks the ability to single-handedly put away an opponent with his shot. Instead, this team has 10 different players, who are averaging at least 7.2 points per game and playing 16.9 minutes or more. An abundance of depth and impressive team chemistry is what makes Phoenix extremely difficult to beat on a nightly basis. Even having this be their third game in four nights, this is a team capable of putting together a dominant showing on national television.

Mavericks vs. Suns Picks & Prediction

There is a lot of public money on this play tonight, due to the fact that Doncic will be on the sidelines for this matchup. Though there is always an added risk when siding with the public on a play, sometimes it is warranted. Dallas is better defensively without Doncic on the court, but they are not good enough to make up for the offensive loss of their leading scorer. Other than a potential fatigue issue from a difficult travel schedule, there is little reason for bettors to show hesitation in trusting Phoenix to deliver a convincing win this evening.

PICK: Suns -8.5 (-110)

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