Cowboys vs. 49ers Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Cowboys vs. 49ers Odds
| Cowboys Odds | +4 |
| 49ers Odds | -4 |
| Over/Under | 46.5 |
| Date | Sun, Jan. 22 |
| Time | 6:30 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
The NFL divisional round will conclude on Sunday evening with a matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers. Last weekend, Dallas handled the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-14, earning their first postseason victory since 2018. San Francisco trailed at the half in their wild-card contest against the Seattle Seahawks, but pulled away late for a commanding 41-23 victory. Tonight these two teams meet with a trip to the NFC championship game on the line. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair, pricing the 49ers as 4-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Dallas Cowboys
Prescott leading the charge
During the regular season, Dak Prescott threw 15 interceptions in 12 games played, leading many bettors and pundits to predict that Dallas would be one-and-done in this year’s postseason. Prescott proved his doubters wrong, at least for a week, with a spotless performance in the wild-card round against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Prescott finished the game 25 of 33 on pass attempts for 305 passing yards and five total touchdowns. On 33 dropbacks, he committed zero turnover-worthy-plays, Per Pro Football Focus.
On Sunday, he will face a San Francisco team that knocked him out of the playoffs last year. In that matchup, Prescott was 23 of 43 on pass attempts for 254 passing yards, throwing one touchdown and one interception in the loss.
Underrated defense
Since Prescott’s return from injury in Week 7, the Cowboys are 9-3, with two of their three losses coming on the road in overtime. From Week 7 to the end of the regular season, Dallas’ defense ranked fourth in EPA overall, ninth in dropback EPA, and third in rush EPA. If there is a team capable of eliminating the 49ers this January, it is the Cowboys – having the personnel to slow down both the ground game and the aerial attack.
San Francisco 49ers
Pressure on Purdy
Earlier this week, reports began to surface that San Francisco intends to make Brock Purdy their starting quarterback in 2023. However, that decision could be reversed in a hurry if Purdy fails to deliver a trip to the NFC championship game on Sunday. He has a difficult task in front of him against one of the league’s most talented defenses.
From a clean pocket this year, Purdy has an 11-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, with a 3.1% turnover-worthy-play rate. Against pressure, he has remained strong, with a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 2.6% turnover-worthy-play percentage. This will be Purdy’s most difficult challenge to date, but he is equipped to handle it well.
League’s best defense
In 17 regular season games, the 49ers allowed the fewest points per game, fewest yards per game, fewest rush yards per carry, and led the NFL in both EPA and DOVA on the defensive side of the ball. Per David Lombardi, edge defender Nick Bosa is expected to work primarily against rookie Dallas left tackle Tyler Smith this evening. As a rookie, Smith ranked 57th out of 81 tackles in pass blocking grade, per Pro Football Focus. This will be a matchup to watch throughout the game.
Cowboys vs. 49ers – Picks & Predictions
The winner of this contest is likely heading to Glendale, Arizona in a few weeks. From Week 7 to Week 17, Dallas and San Francisco were the only two teams in the NFL that ranked in the top-six in both offensive EPA and defensive EPA. Bettors should expect both teams to be well-prepared and ready for a competitive game script. It would not be surprising to see this contest go down to the final possession – take the Cowboys and the points in this one.
PICK: Cowboys +4 (-110, MGM)
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