Broncos vs. Raiders Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Broncos vs. Raiders Odds
| Broncos Odds | +2.5 |
| Raiders Odds | -2.5 |
| Over/Under | 46 |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 2 |
| Time | 4:25 p.m. |
| TV | CBS |
On Sunday, the Denver Broncos will travel to Allegiant Stadium to for an AFC West battle with the winless Las Vegas Raiders. Following a narrow Week 1 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, Denver defeated the Houston Texans in Week 2, and emerged victorious against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football in Week 3. After losing to the Tennessee Titans last weekend, newly-hired Raiders Head Coach Josh McDaniels and owner Mark Davis had a closed-door meeting. Oddsmakers are expecting a bounce-back performance from Las Vegas in Week 4, pricing them as 2.5-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Denver Broncos
In Week 1, the Broncos ended up on the losing end of the scoreboard against the Seattle Seahawks, but Denver defeated themselves in that contest. The Broncos out-gained the Seahawks 433-253, in addition to dominating the time of possession battle. However, multiple fumbles at the goal line, poor coaching decisions at the end of the game, and a blown defensive coverage in the first half all contributed to the loss. In Week 2, Denver scored only 16 points, but the defense was once again sensational, and the offense dominated the time of possession for the second consecutive week. Last Sunday, the Broncos scored only 11 points, but dominated the time of possession for the third week in a row, and committed a season-low five penalties in a winning effort against the San Francisco 49ers.
Heading into Week 4, the Broncos offense could struggle again due to the continued absence of Billy Turner on the offensive line. Turner has yet to play a single snap thus far in 2022, which has been a large source of the problems for Denver on the offensive side of the ball. Dalton Risner, Lloyd Cushenberry III, and Graham Glasgow have struggled mightily as run blockers on the interior portion of this offensive line through three weeks, which has limited the ceiling of this group.
Defensively, Denver has been one of the best teams in the NFL this fall – ranking 5th in EPA/play. On Sunday, the Broncos will be without linebacker Jonathon Cooper and defensive tackle D.J. Jones, but the integral pieces of this defensive core are all healthy and available. Through three games, only the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys have allowed fewer yards-per-attempt through the air. Ejiro Evero’s defense has an opportunity to have another strong day on Sunday against a Las Vegas offense that has been unimpressive thus far in 2022.
Las Vegas Raiders
In our preseason preview of the Raiders we mentioned that “In 2021, the Raiders were only the fourth team in NFL history to make the postseason with a point differential of -65 or worse. A disappointing 6-7 beginning to the year turned for the better when they beat a beleaguered Cleveland Browns’ Nick Mullens led roster on a last second field goal in Week 15. In Week 16, they beat Drew Lock by only four points after trailing by six points in the second half. In Week 17, despite trailing entering the fourth quarter, they beat the Indianapolis Colts on a week in which Wentz did not practice for COVID-related reasons. In Week 18, they emerged victorious in an overtime back-and-forth affair against the Los Angeles Chargers, in a game that the Chargers seemingly did not want to win. All of this is to say that Las Vegas was extremely lucky to win 10 games last season.
Through three weeks, Las Vegas has regressed sharply on both sides of the ball. Derek Carr has already thrown four interceptions, which ranks 26th in the NFL. Prized offseason addition Davante Adams has only seven catches for 48 receiving yards across the last two weeks, despite not playing a strong secondary unit either week. The Raiders also rank 20th in rush EPA/play so far in 2022, running behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Facing an elite Denver defense in Week 4, it would be surprising to see this offense improve upon these numbers on Sunday.
On the defensive side of the ball, only five teams have been worse than the Raiders in terms of EPA/play during the early portion of the campaign. Maxx Crosby has been elite as a run defender and more than serviceable as a pass-rusher, but the rest of the defensive line has struggled mightily. Nate Hobbs has been excellent in coverage, but the rest of the secondary unit has left much to be desired. Denver’s offense has been far from outstanding, but Las Vegas is not particularly well-equipped to make life difficult on any opponent with their current personnel.
Broncos vs. Raiders Picks & Predictions
Broncos’ games have totaled 33 points, 25 points, and 21 in the first three weeks, respectively. Denver has been able to assert their brand of football with their ability to dominate the time of possession battle. Expect the Broncos to struggle offensively again in this spot, but for their elite defense and ball-control style of play to result in another under cashing for bettors.
PICK: Under 47 (-145, DraftKings)
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