Lions vs. Packers Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Lions vs. Packers Odds
| Lions Odds | +5 |
| Packers Odds | -5 |
| Over/Under | 49.5 |
| Date | Sun, Jan. 8 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
The final regular season installment of Sunday Night Football this year will feature an NFC North battle between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. As of this writing, both the Lions and Packers have their playoff hopes dependent on the outcome of this intra-division battle, with both teams entering play at 8-8. If the Seattle Seahawks win this afternoon, Detroit would be eliminated from the postseason. Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have Green Bay priced as 5-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Detroit Lions
No motor outside of the Motor City
Though the Lions have three wins on the road this season, it has not been because of their quarterback. In 16 games this year, Jared Goff ranks sixth in passing yards, fourth in touchdown passes, and seventh in both interceptions and QBR among qualified signal callers. However, he has some of the most stark home-and-away splits in the entire league – posting a 23-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 109.3 quarterback rating at home, but only a 6-to-4 touchdown to interception ratio with an 87.6 quarterback rating on the road. Facing an emerging Green Bay secondary unit, Goff is likely to struggle tonight in difficult playing conditions.
Defense remains a liability
Detroit won over the hearts of bettors last year with an impressive ATS record, and has followed that up with a respectable 8-8 record in the standings that actually matter this fall. However, they have won eight games with little assistance from their defense. On the season, Detroit ranks 31st overall in defensive EPA, ranking 28th or worse in EPA against the pass and against opposing ground attacks.
Green Bay Packers
Rodgers rolling into Week 18
This season, Aaron Rodgers has thrown 11 interceptions, which is more than he threw in 2020 and 2021 combined. However, he has played much better of late, with a 4-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio during Green Bay’s four-game winning streak. Since Week 14, the Packers rank seventh in the NFL in offensive EPA, using a balanced approach through the air and on the ground to keep opposing defenses guessing.
Defense peaking at the right time
Since linebacker De’Vondre Campbell returned to the field in Week 13, Green Bay ranks 10th in the NFL in defensive EPA overall, including fifth in dropback EPA. The main vulnerability for this unit remains on the ground, where they rank 23rd in rush EPA during that time period. If the Packers can find a way to avoid too much damage being done by Jamaal Williams, this unit could put together an extremely strong performance this evening.
Lions vs. Packers – Picks & Predictions
In Detroit’s road games this season, the game totals have reached 52, 29, 30, 61, 49, 37, and 60 points. Yet, two of the games that went over 50 points came against the defensively challenged Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears. Tonight, bettors should expect the running game to be emphasized by both teams, and for both defenses to be locked in for the regular season finale. The under has good value in this spot, especially considering Jared Goff’s struggles away from home.
PICK: Under 49.5 (-110, MGM)