Understanding NBA Projections & Advanced Stats

Chris Gimino (ChrisGimino)

Created 2 years ago, Last Updated 1 month ago (Premium)

Knowing the basics of NBA DFS is hard enough, and that goes for players of all skill levels. It is no surprise to me that many players talk about the various advanced aspects of a player projection as if it exists in a “vacuum.”

That is to say there is a lot to know and consider on a daily basis, and I forgive anyone who fails to consider how the stats they find in research relate to the bigger picture. I feel that projected player performance is often misunderstood, and this article is designed for our premium users to get a better grasp on how all this information fits together.

By the end of this article, you should be better prepared to understand what a player projection means, what goes into it, and how to make decisions based on a player’s full range of outcomes for the slate.

The Inspiration / Problem Inspiring this Article

You’ll hear references to NBA advanced stats such as team pace, usage rates, and Court IQ queries all the time in articles, shows, and podcasts. The problem is that they are always referenced individually and rarely discussed in the context of a player projection. They will often be referenced as a good or bad thing for the player’s outlook for the night, but almost never will you get the full explanation of why or specifically how much that player is affected by the situation. This leads to stats being taken out of context, and decisions being made based on information that is either already baked into a median projection or is better served as a reference to its effects on floor/ceiling. I will now help you understand those two important concepts and the underlying advanced statistics that shape them.

Understanding Player Projections