Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Game 7 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | +145 |
| Phillies Odds | -170 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Tue, Oct. 24 |
| Time | 8:07 p.m. |
| TV | TBS |
On Tuesday, MLB fans will be treated to their second League Championships Series Game 7 in as many days. Tonight, the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies will meet one last time at Citizens Bank Park, with the winner advancing to play the Texas Rangers in the World Series. The first pitch this evening is scheduled for 8:07 p.m. ET on TBS.
Ahead of the first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Phillies as -170 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Brandon Pfaadt on the bump for Arizona
Last week, Brandon Pfaadt pitched his best game as a professional, blanking the Phillies for 5.2 innings – allowing only two hits while striking out nine batters. Notably, Pfaadt had increased spin rates on each of five offerings in that contest, which led to a career-high nine strikeouts. His velocity was up across the board as well, on everything except his 4-seam fastball.
On Tuesday, Pfaadt has the difficult task of facing the same lineup for the second time in less than seven days. Hyper-proximity matchups are a significant advantage for the offense and a tremendous challenge for the pitcher. Expect him to have a short leash in Game 7, despite having thrown 10.0 consecutive scoreless frames across his last two outings.
Arizona’s offense is nowhere to be found
In six games to begin this year’s NLCS, the Diamondbacks rank last among remaining teams in runs scored, hits, extra-base hits, home runs, walks, strikeouts, on-base percentage, and OPS. Their five home runs are half as many as the next-worst team and only a third of the category-leading Texas Rangers. Arizona’s 17 runs scored are 11 less than Philadelphia’s in this series.
Simply, this has been one of baseball’s greatest Houdini acts, for Arizona to somehow force this series to a decisive Game 7. The fact remains that this is, by far, the worst offensive of any team that made it to the League Championship Series in 2023. They have the opportunity to defy the odds one more time, but talent is not on their side.
Arizona bullpen usage update
Yesterday, the Diamondbacks used each of their top four relief options to secure a Game 6 victory against the Phillies. Ryan Thompson, Andrew Saalfrank, Kevin Ginkel, and Paul Sewald each made their way into the game, which means that all of them will be pitching on zero days rest today, assuming Manager Tony Lovullo uses them once again with the team’s season hanging in the balance.
Sewald allowed five runs in 6.2 innings of work pitching on zero days of rest during the second-half of the regular season. Ginkel allowed six earned runs in 7.2 innings of work on zero days rest following the All-Star break. This unit is a major concern for Lovullo on Tuesday night.
Philadelphia Phillies
Ranger Suarez hoping to continue postseason dominance
Ranger Suarez owns a 0.64 ERA and has allowed only nine baserunners in 14.0 innings of work to begin these playoffs. His only mistake was a home run allowed against the Atlanta Braves on October 12. Suarez was masterful in his first start against the Diamondbacks during the NLCS, keeping them off of the scoreboard entirely for 5.1 innings while striking out seven hitters.
Suarez likely has a much shorter leash this time around, given the gravity that comes with a win-or-go-home atmosphere. Nevertheless, he has given bettors every indication that he is capable of limiting the damage done against him in the early portion of tonight’s game.
Phillies offense looking for bounce-back day
Prior to yesterday’s action, Philadelphia had four everyday starters in their lineup with a 1.010 OPS or better this postseason – Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos. Brandon Marsh and J.T. Realmuto had a .931 OPS and an .863 OPS , respectively.
Those six batters combined to go 3-for-21 at the plate in Game 6. Harper, Turner, Schwarber, and Castellanos went a combined 0-for-13 at the dish.
Suffice it to say, Philadelphia played about as poorly as they possibly could offensively yesterday. They scored only one run, had only one extra-base hit, and went 1-for-7 with runners-in-scoring position. The good news is that they have a more favorable matchup in Game 7 against Brandon Pfaadt and a less rested Arizona arm barn. This lineup should have little trouble making amends for what transpired last night.
Philadelphia bullpen is in good shape heading into Game 7
If there is a silver lining to Aaron Nola getting shelled yesterday, it is that Manager Rob Thompson never even flirted with the idea of using his high-leverage arms in Game 6. Michael Lorenzen, Orion Kerkering, Craig Kimbrel, and Gregory Soto covered the final 5.2 innings yesterday, giving all of the team’s more reliable high-leverage options the ability to be completely fresh for Game 7.
Ahead of first pitch this evening, Seranthony Dominguez, Jeff Hoffman, and Matt Strahm have each had two days of rest since their last appearance. Jose Alvarado has not thrown since last Friday. There is more than enough firepower and reliable talent for this unit to cover at least four frames on Tuesday to punch Philadelphia’s ticket to the World Series.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies – Picks & Predictions
The MLB Postseason can be notoriously chaotic, due to the volatility that can manifest in small sample sizes on a baseball field. Nevertheless, it would be one of the all-time great Houdini acts if Arizona somehow managed to earn a trip to the World Series tonight.
Philadelphia has the better lineup by a substantial margin in this matchup. The Phillies have all of their top high-leverage relievers available tonight, whereas the Diamondbacks used each of their top-four relievers yesterday. Arizona’s top two relief options allowed 11 runs (10 earned runs) in 14.1 innings of work pitching on zero days of work following the All-Star break during the regular season.
If Philadelphia loses tonight, it makes sense to go down with the ship. This is an extremely lopsided matchup in all aspects of the game. The Phillies simply need to execute, which they have proven themselves capable of doing each of the last two years in October.
PICK: Phillies Moneyline (-170, Fanatics Sportsbook)