Dodgers vs. Padres Odds, Picks & Prediction — Thursday, August 26th
Dodgers vs Padres Odds
| Dodgers Odds | -140 |
| Padres Odds | +130 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Thursday, Aug. 26 |
| Time | 9:10 pm ET |
| TV | SNLA |
| Odds accurate as of Thursday at Caesars | |
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On Thursday evening, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres will play the series finale of a three-game set at Petco Park. Yesterday, the Dodgers emerged victorious in a wild, 16-inning affair. Entering play, Los Angeles has won 15 of their last 17 games. San Diego has lost 11 of their last 13 matchups. Tonight, Max Scherzer will get the nod for the Dodgers as he looks to continue his dominance since being acquired at the trade deadline. He will be opposed by Yu Darvish, who will be making his first start off of the injured list. Oddsmakers have the Dodgers once again listed as heavy favorites at -140 on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Since being acquired from the Washington Nationals at the trade deadline, Scherzer has been nearly unhittable with a 2.11 ERA and a 2.18 FIP. During that stretch, he owns an elite 34.8 strikeout-percentage against a 4.5 percent walk-rate. His success can be partly attributed to the fact that he has been getting ahead in the count more with the Dodgers compared to earlier in the year. In each of his four outings with Los Angeles, he has thrown at least 63.0 percent of first-pitches for strikes, which enables him to be more aggressive with his pitch sequencing throughout the rest of the at-bat. Bettors should expect Scherzer to turn in a great performance tonight against a San Diego offense that ranks 30th in OPS and 27th in ISO over the last seven days.
The Dodgers have managed to win 15 of their last 17 games without even really showing up at the plate. Over the last two weeks, this ballclub ranks only 20th in OPS and ninth in ISO. In that span, they have the 10th-best walk rate, but have struck-out more than almost anyone with a 24.4 strikeout-percentage. Darvish has pitched well against the Dodgers in 2021, but this will be the fourth time that this lineup will get to see him, which offers Los Angeles fans some hope for a better offensive showing in this one.
Over the last 30 days, the Dodgers rank third in bullpen FIP. However, they are likely to be without Kenley Jansen, Blake Treinen, Corey Knebel, Phil Brickford, and Alex Vesia tonight, who have all appeared in back-to-back games to start this series. Even the arms that will be available will be making their second appearance in a row after the entire bullpen was used in yesterday’s extra-inning contest.
San Diego Padres
Darvish has respectable season-long numbers with a 3.70 ERA, 3.12 xERA, and a 3.71 FIP. However, he has struggled tremendously since the beginning of July—posting a 7.13 ERA and a 5.46 FIP in seven trips to the mound. Still, he is a better pitcher than those numbers indicate and positive regression is surely on the way. Even during his rough patch, he owned an elite 28.3 strikeout-percentage against a 4.6 percent walk-rate. It is not ideal for him to be making his first start off of the injured list against the Dodgers, but in three starts against the division rivals in 2021, he has been outstanding, allowing only three earned runs in 20.0 innings of work.
On Tuesday, the Padres went with a bullpen day, not anticipating that they would need to cover an additional 8.1 innings in yesterday’s 16-inning marathon. Pierce Johnson and Emilio Pagan are the only two relief arms that did not appear in last night’s loss. Daniel Camarena, Austin Adams, Nabil Crismatt, Tim Hill, and Daniel Hudson have each appeared two nights in a row. The late innings could be problematic for San Diego in this one, especially if Darvish fails to get deep into the game.
Pick
Los Angeles is the hottest team in baseball and will get to play behind Scherzer in this one. Any fatigue-related concerns in the bullpen are more than cancelled out by San Diego’s heavily-taxed relief unit. The Dodgers once again have the starting pitching advantage and a better offense, making them a must-wager in this spot at a friendly money line price.
The starting pitching matchup will certainly induce a lot of casual bettors to wager on the under, but the line does not seem to reflect the possibility of three-plus innings of at-bats against two exhausted bullpens. The late innings could be chaotic with unfamiliar faces potentially appearing in high-leverage situations. The over is our best bet of the night on this game.
Pick: Dodgers ML (-140), Over 7.5 (-110)
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