Dodgers vs. Phillies Odds, Picks, & Prediction for Tuesday, August 10th

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2021-08-10 14:51:49

Dodgers vs. Phillies Odds

Tonight, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies will begin a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park. The Dodgers are only 11-10 since the All-Star break and have fallen to four games behind the San Francisco Giants in the National League West division. The Phillies are the hottest team in the Majors right now—entering play on an eight game winning streak. Still, oddsmakers have dubbed Los Angeles heavy MLB betting favorites in this game. The starting pitching matchup in the series opener will feature Max Scherzer for the Dodgers against Aaron Nola.

Philadelphia Phillies

Scherzer was dominant against the Houston Astros in his Los Angeles debut. He lasted seven innings, allowing only two earned runs on five hits, while striking out 10 batters and only walking one. Yet, bettors should be aware that over his last seven starts, he owns a 3.76 ERA and a 4.45 FIP. During that stretch, he still possesses an elite 31.9 strikeout-percentage, but his 8.4 percent walk-rate is much higher than we are used to seeing from the star pitcher. He has also allowed an alarmingly-high 13.7 percent barrel-rate since June 22, which makes his .230 BABIP in that span even more lucky.

The Phillies offense has been relentless as of late. They rank third in OPS and fourth in ISO over the last 14 days. Over the last two weeks, they have also struck-out at an incredibly-low 16.8 percent rate, which is by far the best in the league. Bryce Harper has emerged as a legitimate Most Valuable Player candidate, seeing his odds jump from +3000 to +270 in the last five days. Across his last 17 games, Harper has posted a .404 batting average, .462 ISO, and a 1.416 OPS. Scherzer is unquestionably one of the most talented pitchers in the game, but his recent struggles paired with the red-hot, Harper-led Phillies offense is not being fully reflected in the odds for this matchup.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Nola owns a disappointing 4.49 ERA on the season, but his 3.64 xERA and 3.55 FIP indicate that he has pitched much better than his outcome-stats reveal. Nola ranks in the 70th percentile in strikeout-percentage, 90th percentile in walk-rate, and the 81st percentile in chase-rate. He grades as above league average in exit-velocity, hard-hit percentage, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, barrel-rate, and whiff-percentage. Yet, his underlying metrics have not managed to manifest in consistently strong performances on the mound. In his last seven trips to the mound, he owns a solid 3.34 FIP, but an unimpressive 5.05 ERA.

The Dodgers lineup is often thought of as a terrible matchup for opposing pitchers, but Los Angeles has been rather mediocre at the plate recently. Over the last two weeks, they rank only 12th in OPS and 17th in ISO. Nola has been much better at home compared to the road in 2021—posting a 2.62 FIP with a 32.9 strikeout-percentage and a miniscule 3.5 percent walk-rate at Citizens Bank Park. He is capable of delivering a very strong outing this evening.

Picks: Phillies Moneyline & Under

The Dodgers are heavy favorites in this one, but that likely has far more to do with public perception than robust data analysis by sports bettors. All of the underlying metrics indicate that this game should be much closer to a pick’em. If choosing to play the side in this game, make a small wager on the undervalued Phillies.

Pick: Phillies ML (+144)

The Dodgers are heavy favorites in this one, but that likely has far more to do with public perception than robust data analysis by sports bettors. All of the underlying metrics indicate that this game should be much closer to a pick’em. If choosing to play the side in this game, make a small wager on the undervalued Phillies.

Thus far in 2021, Citizens Bank Park has produced the 18th-most offense of any venue in Major League Baseball in night games. Tonight, two of the most talented pitchers in baseball will oppose one another under the lights. Sportsbooks are over-valuing both the Dodgers and the Phillies lineup in this one. Los Angeles has been very mediocre in recent weeks and draws a very difficult matchup against Nola, who has been superb when pitching at home. The Phillies offense has been one of the hottest in the league over the last month, but they were held to only one run on three hits by Max Scherzer on July 29. There is some concern for scoring in the late innings in this one with two bullpens that rank 14th or worse in FIP over the last two weeks, but bettors should nonetheless expect a low-scoring affair. Both the under 4.5 in the first five innings and the under 8.5 for the full game are strong plays here.

Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-110), Full game Under 8.5 (-110)

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