Dolphins vs. Packers Player Props: Three Predictions for Thursday Night Football
What can we expect on Thursday from Josh Jacobs, Tua Tagovailoa, and Tyreek Hill? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for Thursday, November 28, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more football props, at ScoresAndOdds.
The NFL’s 3-game Thanksgiving slate will conclude with a highly anticipated matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers from Lambeau Field. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.
If looking to wager on the player prop market for Dolphins vs. Packers, we have 3 prop leans to consider for Thursday!
Dolphins vs. Packers – NFL Player Props
- Josh Jacobs Over/Under 17.5 Rush Attempts
- Tua Tagovailoa Over/Under 34.5 Yards Longest Completion
- Tyreek Hill Over/Under 4.5 Receptions
Josh Jacobs UNDER 17.5 Rush Attempts (-115, DraftKings)
Since the team’s Week 6 bye, Miami’s defense has ranked in the top half of the NFL across the board in most major categories. Notably, they rank 9th in rush EPA/play and 13th in rush success rate during that stretch. They haven’t allowed a single player to post more than 62 rushing yards in a game since Rhamondre Stevenson all the way back in Week 5. Josh Jacobs carried the ball 26 times this past Sunday against the 49ers in a blowout victory, but he will have had only 3 days to recover from that matchup when these teams meet on Thanksgiving. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Emanuel Wilson be slightly more involved in Green Bay’s ground attack, which could limit the overall workload for Jacobs on a short week.
Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 34.5 Yards Longest Completion (-115, DraftKings)
Green Bay has been one of the best defenses in the league when it comes to limiting big plays this fall, with only 1 passing play allowed for 40+ yards, which came all the way back in Week 1 when the Packers met the Eagles in Sao Paulo. Green Bay deploys a fair amount of 2-high safety looks, which helps in this area, but the real reason they have excelled at limiting the big play is because they have arguably the best safety in the entire NFL. Safety Xavier McKinney enters Week 13 ranked 2nd out of 90 players at his position in coverage grade, per PFF. Even against a potent Miami offense, Green Bay’s defense should be able to keep Tua Tagovailoa under this market number.
Tyreek Hill OVER 4.5 Receptions (-160, FanDuel)
Green Bay’s secondary unit has done a good job limiting explosive plays of late, but they have been less formidable on a down-to-down basis in recent weeks. Since Week 7, the Packers’ pass defense ranks 6th in EPA/play but only 17th in success rate. Tyreek Hill has eclipsed this market number in 4 of 6 full games that he has played with Tua Tagovailoa this season and 15 of his last 17 games with Tagovailoa overall. This is a very palatable number for a player of his caliber, even in a somewhat difficult matchup.
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