Dolphins vs. Packers Same Game Parlay Picks for Today
Let loosen that top button for some Thanksgiving Night Football! Fight off the food coma. Pour the extra cup of coffee. The NFL features two playoff hopefuls on Thursday night.
The Packers rank amongst the best teams in the NFC and will welcome the surging Dolphins to Lambeau Field. The Dolphins continue to fight for the last wild card berth in the AFC but will face their toughest test in some time on Turkey Day. Tua Tagovailoa is lighting it up since his return. Can he take apart the Packers defense?
Check out our Same Game Parlay Guide before we break down tonight’s game and build a same game parlay for Thanksgiving night.
Dolphins vs. Packers Same Game Parlay Preview
As of Wednesday afternoon, the Packers are 3-point home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The implied game total is 48 points — the highest mark across sports betting sites as of this writing. The betting spread is telling us that these teams would be a pick’em on a neutral field. Are we sure?
ScoresAndOdds reports that the sports betting sites might make some money on Thursday night. 56% of tickets were bet on the Green Bay side of the betting spread. The line has not budged much off of the field goal. A greater percentage of money was bet on Green Bay (61%), so maybe we glean that the sharper side is the Packers. The game total has moved a full point up since opening with a majority of the action on the over.
The Packers are on a tear — winning 6 of their last 7 games. Green Bay only lost to Detroit — arguably the best team in the NFC. Otherwise, they continue to chalk up wins despite average play from Jordan Love. Love was a popular breakout candidate after strong performances in the playoffs last season. This season, Love completes just over 60% of his passes and has a solid TD-INT ratio. The Packers are loaded on offense though.
The Dolphins continue to ascend after welcoming back Tua. He lost his first two starts after his return from another serious concussion. Since then, the Dolphins have won 3 straight games in dominant fashion. Tua has completed more than 72% of his passes and has 8 touchdowns to only 1 interception. The main engineer to this offense is back, and the Dolphins will need his precision and anticipation against the Packers in Green Bay.
The home team has a couple of key injuries to monitor as of Wednesday afternoon. Jaire Alexander did not participate in Tuesday’s walkthrough and is unlikely to play. Similarly, Romeo Doubs remains in the league’s concussion protocol. Doubs did not participate in the walkthrough and is doubtful for Thanksgiving. The visiting Dolphins seem mostly healthy heading into Thursday night. Terron Armstead, Tyreek Hill, and Jalen Ramsey missed practice but seem likely to play. The Dolphins need all hands on deck as they cling to playoff hopes. Veteran LG Isaiah Wynn was activated from the PUP list and could resume his starting role.
Green Bay ranks in the top third of most defensive categories but is clearly better against the run than the pass. The Packers are a vulturous defense though, and are tied for first in the NFL in takeaways (2.0 per game). The Packers capitalize on the mistakes made by opposing offenses with the 8th-ranked scoring offense in the NFL. Green Bay averages 4.8 yards per rush attempt this season and runs the ball at the 4th-highest clip. As the weather gets colder, Green Bay will look to grind opponents down.
The Dolphins continue to be a better offense at home than on the road. Last season, the prolific Dolphins scored 7 more points per game at home than they did on the road. This season, the Dolphins average a paltry 15.6 PPG away from Miami. The knock on Tua and company is play in the cold weather where the offense has sputtered. The actual temperature projected for this game as of Wednesday is below freezing. The Dolphins will need to find a way to improve outdoors in the cold to beat the Packers.
With plenty of explosive offensive options, let’s comb through the props on DraftKings and build a Thanksgiving same game parlay.
Same Game Parlay Picks for Dolphins vs. Packers
- Green Bay -3
- De’Von Achane 25+ Receiving Yards
- Tucker Kraft Over 31.5 Receiving Yards
Green Bay -3
Let’s just lay the cards on the table. I think the Packers will steamroll the Dolphins. The Dolphins ran off three consecutive victories, yes. Who have they beaten?
The greater issue is the location and the weather. The Dolphins are not the same team on the road, especially when they are playing in colder weather. With temperatures below freezing, will Tua be able to continue his streak of elite play? He is 0-7 when playing in temperatures 40 degrees or lower.
Green Bay rolls. The benefit of starting with the betting spread pick is that any over on a Dolphins player should come with a boost.
De’Von Achane 25+ Receiving Yards
Let’s just take care of that Dolphin player now. While Jaylen Waddle went off last weekend, the Dolphins offense begins and ends with Achane. While Hill continues to nurse his wrist injury, the second-year star continues to represent the most explosive option on the Miami side of the football.
I do believe the Dolphins will be trailing in this game. Achane saw 4, 4, and 5 targets in big wins. When the Dolphins lost to the Bills and Cardinals, Achane was targeted 8 times and notched 50+ receiving yards.
The Dolphins need to get the ball in their best player’s hands. The Packers allow 8.8 yards per catch to running backs. A few catches, and we are home.
Tucker Kraft Over 31.5 Receiving Yards
Finally, we attack a more glaring weakness for the Dolphins. The Dolphins allowed the 4th-most receptions to the tight end position through 11 games. The top two teams played 12 games.
With Doubs probably out, Kraft could see more work. The Packers might look to take advantage of the matchup in Doubs’ absence. Doubs typically sees 4-5 targets. Given the inefficiency against the position for the Miami defense, the Packers might look to send some of those looks Kraft’s way.
We finish with a leg that fits our script. The Packers offense needs to score to cover. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!
Dolphins vs. Packers Parlay Odds
- Green Bay -3
- De’Von Achane 25+ Receiving Yards
- Tucker Kraft Over 31.5 Receiving Yards
DraftKings Sportsbook offers the following odds:
DRAFTKINGSParlay Odds: +400
Risk: 0.5 units to win 2 units
Good luck with all of your wagers for this game. Share your parlays with me on X.
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