Dolphins vs. Chiefs Player Props: Top NFL Picks for Tagovailoa and Mahomes
What kind of performances can we expect during the Wild Card round from Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for today – Saturday, January 13, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more football props, at ScoresandOdds.
Saturday’s 2-game NFL postseason slate will conclude with a highly-anticipated matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs. The Dolphins limped into the playoffs, losing three of their final five games after injuries ravaged their roster. The Chiefs struggled after their bye week as well, going 3-4 prior to sitting their starters in Week 18.
Ahead of kickoff in this Wild Card matchup, the Chiefs are favored by 5 points on the spread. The over/under is set at 43.5 points.
If looking to wager on the player prop market instead of a side or total today, we have three prop leans for today’s matchup between the Chiefs and Dolphins!
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Dolphins vs. Chiefs NFL Player Props – Wild Card Round
- Tua Tagovailoa OVER 20.5 Completions
- Patrick Mahomes UNDER 244.5 Passing Yards
- Patrick Mahomes UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Tua Tagovailoa OVER 20.5 Completions (-120), bet365
Everyone is well aware of how cold it will be on Saturday night in Kansas City, but this market number is still too low for a player who has at least 21 completions in 15 of his 17 games this season. Since Mike McDaniel took over as the head coach in Miami, the team’s aerial attack has prioritized the quick, short passing game more than almost any other team in the league. Since Thanksgiving, 5 of 7 starting quarterbacks to face the Chiefs have completed at least 23 passes, with the two exceptions being Aidan O’Connell and Jake Browning. There is proof of concept that this number is attainable in these weather conditions, with Eli Manning completing 21 passes at Lambeau Field in 2008. We will live with the results here.
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 243.5 Passing Yards (-110), bet365
In the two most recent “Ice Bowls” in NFL history, only one quarterback has thrown for more than 236 passing yards – Eli Manning in an overtime affair at Lambeau in 2008. Brett Favre had 236 passing yards in that contest. In 2016, Russell Wilson and Teddy Bridgewater both had fewer than 150 passing yards playing the frozen tundra that was Huntington Bank Stadium. If we assume that the Chiefs will be playing from out in front in this game, there will be a lot of incentive for the Kansas City offense to grind the clock with the running game against a Miami defense that will be without LB Jerome Baker, EDGE Bradley Chubb, and LB Jaelen Phillips.
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+100), BetMGM
In the two most recent “Ice Bowls,” the four starting quarterbacks in those games have combined for a total of 3 passing touchdowns – two of which were thrown by Brett Favre. Even in more normal weather conditions, Mahomes has been far from automatic through the air in recent weeks, throwing fewer than 2 passing touchdowns in four or his final five games during the regular season. Ball security is going to be of the utmost importance around the goal line in a game like this, where possessions and points are likely to be at a premium. At even money, this is a worthwhile risk.
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