Dolphins vs. Rams Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Dolphins vs. Rams Odds
| Dolphins Odds | +2.5 |
| Rams Odds | -2.5 |
| Over/Under | 48.5 |
| Date | Monday, November 11 |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Week 10 of the NFL regular season will wrap up with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Rams. Kickoff is set for 8:15 PM ET on ESPN from Sofi Stadium.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Rams as 2.5-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 48.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, Tua Tagovailoa is 3-9 ATS in his career in night games, including 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS as an underdog. Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay are 26-8 SU when listed as a pregame favorite.
Miami Dolphins Preview
Jackson ruled OUT
Miami will be without their starting right tackle, Austin Jackson, due to a knee injury. Typically, a team missing a starting tackle would be a more pressing concern. The Dolphins, however, are a rare outlier, due to how quickly they get the ball out of their quarterback’s hands.
Since returning from injured reserve in Week 8, Tagovailoa has the quickest average time to throw – and by a wide margin. As a result, he faces very little pressure from opposing defenses. In Week 8, Arizona’s defense generated the 4th-lowest pressure rate in the league in their matchup with Miami. In Week 9, the Bills had the lowest defensive pressure rate of any team in the NFL.
In short, Tagovailoa and company should be fine this evening, and maybe more than fine. Since Tagovailoa returned to the field, the Dolphins’ offense ranks 2nd in EPA/play and 1st in success rate. This is a high-powered unit that should continue to operate at a high level in Week 10.
Miami secondary unit potentially back at full strength
Cornerback Kader Kohou will be back on the field after logging a full practice on Friday. Kohou hasn’t played since Week 7 due to a neck issue but had played a starter’s workload, primarily in the slot, prior to that point. Kohou is tied with CB Jalen Ramsey for the team lead in passes defensed, despite playing 2 fewer games than Ramsey.
Safety Jevon Holland is officially listed as questionable but appears to be trending towards playing after logging back-to-back limited practices to end the week. Holland hasn’t played a full game since Week 5 but is one of the league’s premier safeties when healthy.
From Week 1 to Week 5, with Kohou and Holland healthy, Miami’s pass defense ranked a respectable 15th in EPA/play and 15th in success rate. From Week 6 to Week 9, they regressed to 24th in EPA/play and 24th in success rate. This unit will be happy to have them available for this key primetime matchup.
Los Angeles Rams Preview
What to expect from Stafford, Rams offense
The Rams have won each of their 3 games since their bye week, but it hasn’t exactly been pretty. Despite an extremely favorable schedule of opponents, Matthew Stafford and company rank only 17th in EPA/play and 11th in success rate during that stretch. The Rams had only 15 first downs and 259 yards of total offense against the Raiders in Week 7. Stafford threw 4 interceptions in Week 8, but the Vikings were missing star LB Blake Cashman and playing on short rest. Last weekend, the Rams were outgained by nearly 100 yards against the Seahawks and averaged a dreadful 2.8 yards per carry.
The good news for the Rams is that they will return a pair of interior offensive linemen, Jonah Jackson and Steve Avila, for their matchup against the Dolphins. Both players have been out since suffering injuries in the first two weeks of the season. Joe Noteboom is also expected to return for the first time since suffering an ankle injury in Week 1.
Though the Rams’ offensive line is receiving a huge upgrade in talent with the return of some key players, it’s also worth noting that these players haven’t played in a live game together in quite some time, so there could be some inefficiencies in this unit.
Curl, Rozeboom expected to play
Safety Kamren Curl and linebacker Christian Rozeboom were both listed as questionable on the team’s final injury report, but head coach Sean McVay said he expects both players to be on the field. Curl and Rozeboom both rank in the top 4 on the Rams’ defense in tackles and have played all 8 games for a unit that has otherwise been trying to find solutions in their first year of the post Aaron Donald era.
Since the team’s Week 6 bye, Los Angeles’ defense ranks 2nd in EPA/play and 4th in success rate. However, it’s worth noting that they have faced Gardner Minshew, Sam Darnold, and Geno Smith during that stretch. They will have a much tougher test against Tua Tagovailoa.
Dolphins vs. Rams Prediction
On the surface, this seems to be a battle between two teams trending in opposite directions, with the Dolphins being 0-3 since their bye and the Rams being 3-0 since their bye. However, the Dolphins didn’t have Tua for 1 of those losses, and their other 2 games were a 1-point loss to the surging Cardinals and a 3-point loss to the 1st-place Bills – both games that ended on a last-second field goal. Meanwhile, the Rams have defeated the Raiders, Vikings, and Seahawks – three teams who are experiencing significant struggles in one regard or another of late.
Miami is more than capable of keeping this contest competitive on Monday Night Football. It wouldn’t be surprising in the slightest to see them win outright.
PICK: Dolphins +3 (-120, DraftKings)
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