DraftKings NFL Expert Survey: Week 14

Want to know who Notorious is definitely paying up for in NFL DFS this week? Wondering which value play STLCardinals84 is eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy sports experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup building decisions for this week’s main slate contests.

— Click here for FanDuel Expert Survey —

Week 14 – Main Slate

Who is your favorite player for cash games?

Notorious: Jaylen Samuels
STLCardinals84: Keenan Allen
MrTuttle: Keenan Allen
meansy53: Keenan Allen
Stevietpfl: Ezekiel Elliott
Davis Mattek: Christian McCaffrey

Who is your favorite player for tournaments?

Notorious: Davante Adams
STLCardinals84: DeAndre Hopkins
MrTuttle: JuJu Smith-Schuster
meansy53: Tyreek Hill
Stevietpfl: Travis Kelce
Davis Mattek: Tyreek Hill

Who is your favorite salary saver on the board?

Notorious: Jaylen Samuels and Jeff Wilson
STLCardinals84: Jaylen Samuels and Jeff Wilson
MrTuttle: Chris Godwin
meansy53: Jeff Wilson & Jaylen Samuels
Stevietpfl: Jaylen Samuels and Jeff Wilson
Davis Mattek: Jaylen Samuels & Jeff Wilson

Which high-priced player will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?

Notorious: Patrick Mahomes
STLCardinals84: Saquon Barkley
MrTuttle: Ezekiel Elliott
meansy53: Julian Edelman
Stevietpfl: Nick Chubb
Davis Mattek: Aaron Jones

Who’s your top contrarian play on the board?

Notorious: Amari Cooper
STLCardinals84: Spencer Ware
MrTuttle: Austin Ekeler
meansy53: Tyreek Hill
Stevietpfl: Davante Adams
Davis Mattek: Tyreek Hill

Which low-priced chalk player are you most likely to have little to no exposure to?

Notorious: Bruce Ellington
STLCardinals84: Josh Adams
MrTuttle: Golden Tate
meansy53: Bruce Ellington
Stevietpfl: Josh Adams
Davis Mattek: Bruce Ellington

Which low-priced chalk player are you most likely to have heavy exposure to?

Notorious: Jaylen Samuels, Jeff Wilson, and Courtland Sutton
STLCardinals84: Jaylen Samuels
MrTuttle: Chris Godwin
meansy53: Courtland Sutton
Stevietpfl: Jeff Wilson
Davis Mattek: Jeff Wilson

Which player are you most afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?

Notorious: Travis Kelce
STLCardinals84: Tyreek Hill
MrTuttle: Michael Thomas
meansy53: Saquon Barkley
Stevietpfl: Phillip Lindsay
Davis Mattek: Saquon Barkley

Which skill position players (if any) are you targeting versus an elite defense?

Notorious: Jeff Wilson
STLCardinals84: Spencer Ware
MrTuttle: Jeff Wilson
meansy53: Jeff Wilson, Chiefs
Stevietpfl: Jeff Wilson
Davis Mattek: Tyreek Hill, T.Y. Hilton, Ezekiel Elliott

Which NFL team are you targeting players from the most?

Notorious: PIT
STLCardinals84: GB
MrTuttle: LAC/PIT
meansy53: LAC
Stevietpfl: PIT
Davis Mattek: PIT

Which NFL team are you looking to avoid most?

Notorious: CIN
STLCardinals84: CIN
MrTuttle: CIN
meansy53: NYJ
Stevietpfl: NYJ
Davis Mattek: NYJ

What’s the best position to spend up on this week?

Notorious: WR
STLCardinals84: WR
MrTuttle: WR
meansy53: WR
Stevietpfl: RB #1
Davis Mattek: RB

What’s the best position to save salary on this week?

Notorious: RB
STLCardinals84: RB
MrTuttle: RB
meansy53: RB
Stevietpfl: RB #2
Davis Mattek: RB

Which game has sneaky shootout potential this week?

Notorious: IND/HOU
STLCardinals84: ATL/GB
MrTuttle: IND/HOU
meansy53: IND/HOU
Stevietpfl: CAR/CLE
Davis Mattek: HOU/IND

Which position will you have the most exposure to in FLEX?

Notorious: RB
STLCardinals84: RB
MrTuttle: RB
meansy53: RB
Stevietpfl: RB
Davis Mattek: RB

Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?

Notorious: The stars and scrubs approach is awfully enticing this week. We have Jaylen Samuels (starting for James Conner), Jeff Wilson (starting for Matt Breida), and Courtland Sutton (increased target share with Emmanuel Sanders out) all looking like core targets. Rather than focusing on a contrarian lineup build, I will instead focus on contrarian studs to differentiate my lineups.

STLCardinals84: Their defense gets basically no recognition, but the Bills are allowing just 294 total yards per game for the season and 236 total yards per game over the last three weeks. Both of those figures rank second in the league to Baltimore. Don’t sleep on their defense as an intriguing target in a matchup against the Jets.

MrTuttle: Via ESPN.com, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Antonio Brown rank first and second respectively among all WR’s in yards after catch.

meansy53: Keenan Allen went ‘squeaky wheel’ after the Week 7 game in London against Tennessee, complaining about targets. The Chargers then had their bye in Week 8. Since Week 9, no player has more targets than Allen’s 57.

Stevietpfl: The Jets only have three offensive touchdowns in the last five games. They’ve scored the third fewest passing touchdowns, and the seventh fewest rushing touchdowns.

Davis Mattek: Jeff Wilson seems as if he might be overlooked for Jaylen Samuels this week, but that is a mistake. Samuels was a WR in high school and received only 108 carries his final season as a high schooler. He was a hybrid h-back/tight end in college and never topped 80 carries at North Carolina State. His usage as a Steeler thus far has been primarily as a receiver. While I do think Samuels is a fine play, Wilson is more of a prototypical runner in the NFL and should almost double up Samuels in touches, assuming Mike Tomlin is telling the truth about Stevan Ridley.

What’s your hot take of the week?

Notorious: Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson combine for over 600 yards and seven touchdowns.

STLCardinals84: The Atlanta/Green Bay game goes over 65 total points

MrTuttle: Both JuJu and Antonio Brown catch two touchdowns and top 100 yards.

meansy53: Eric Ebron has his second three-touchdown game of the season.

Stevietpfl: Jeff Wilson has 100+ total yards and scores at least one TD

Davis Mattek: Andrew Luck and the Colts offense bounces back from scoring 0 points last week, and we see another #BigTY game with over 100 yards and a score.

What is your favorite correlation of the week and why?

Notorious: Jameis Winston + two pass catchers + Alvin Kamara + Michael Thomas — This is obviously one of the top games to target this week and the fact that there is rain in the forecast could help lower ownership. I see Winston and Brees as comparable plays, so I’ll give the edge to Winston and get my Brees’ exposure through Kamara and Thomas. As far as the pass catchers to pair with Winston, Chris Godwin and Cameron Brate are my favorites.

STLCardinals84: Drew Brees to Michael Thomas – The New Orleans offense got a rude awakening last week against Dallas, and this is the perfect spot for a bounce-back game against a porous Tampa Bay defense. Thomas ranks third in the league in receptions and is capable of a big game at any time, and there is immense upside here in Week 14.

MrTuttle: Ben Roethlisberger + JuJu Smith-Schuster + Antonio Brown – This is about as expensive as you can get but I love the Steelers passing game in an away game against the Raiders. While most people will flock to Jaylen Samuels in James Conner absence, I’m more interested in leveraging the Steelers passing game in GPPs as it’s reasonable to think they use both JuJu and AB84 as an extension of the run game. I expect both guys to see double-digit targets which could translate into plenty of fantasy goodness with how good both are after the catch.

meansy53: Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen – I noted above the absurd amount of targets Allen has gotten in the past five weeks, which has ultimately accounted for approximately 35% of the team’s target share during that span. If we combine that with a matchup against a Cincinnati defense that ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA (and the likely absence of Melvin Gordon again), then the targets should be voluminous once again for Allen despite the Chargers being two-touchdown favorites in this one.

Stevietpfl: Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams – Atlanta is allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. They’ve allowed at least three passing touchdowns in seven of 12 games this season. Adams draws an excellent matchup on the outside this weekend and is in line to have a monster game. I expect the Packers to put up a big game this weekend and I really like the Rodgers/Adams combo.

Davis Mattek: The chalk answer is Drew Brees and Michael Thomas. That is definitely a good combination, but will be an aggressively-owned one. For tournaments, I will be looking at taking Patrick Mahomes in combination with Tyreek Hill. Hill played his worst game of the season last year, with 128 Air Yards turned into only one catch for 13 yards. Overrating the Ravens defense will be problematic for those without exposure to the Hill/Mahomes Stack.

Who is your top overall play (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

Notorious: Jaylen Samuels – He may not see 20 carries (his career high in college was 12), but he should see a bunch of targets and will likely get the goal line work. The Steelers have one of the highest implied totals of the slate and we get to target the starting running back at a huge discount. This is a spot where we shouldn’t overthink it. Not all chalk is created equal.

STLCardinals84: Jaylen Samuels – With Bell out of the picture and Conner hurt, Samuels is becoming the trendy pick of the week in a hurry. At this point, we know that the Pittsburgh system is conducive to running back production, no matter who the lead back is. Samuels showed well in relief of Conner last week, and there’s no reason to avoid him at a dirt cheap price tag. Even though he will be chalky, I can’t fade him in any format. I’m not buying the chatter that Ridley will be just as involved in a committee approach.

MrTuttle: Keenan Allen – I have a lot of uncertainty surrounding the value running back options on this slate as I’m not overly confident in projecting their workload. That uncertainty has me paying up a bit for safety with Keenan Allen as my top overall play on the slate. Allen is averaging nearly 13 targets per game over the last three contests and saw his volume spike to 19 targets in Week 13’s win against the Steelers where the Chargers used Allen as an extension of the run game in Melvin Gordon absence. Allen should be locked in for another double-digit target game in a favorable matchup and is simply still underpriced for his new found role in this Chargers offense.

meansy53: Jaylen Samuels – The salary relief on Samuels really comes in handy for Week 14. I know Samuels is more of a pass-catching back, but that should fit in perfectly with what the Steelers have been doing anyways. On the season, they are essentially tied for first (with the Vikings) for the highest pass play percentage (67%). Over the last three weeks, that number has skyrocketed up to almost 78%. The next closest team during that span is the Falcons at 71%. Sure, it’s possible that he doesn’t get goal line work in favor of Stevan Ridley, but he should be able to easily pay off this price tag due to his involvement in other facets of the game. And if he is able to get in the box, that is just icing on the cake.

Stevietpfl: Ezekiel Elliott – For some reason it seems like Elliott is flying under than radar this weekend, and he’s going to be one of my highest owned players. With some injuries to this Eagles defense, they have really struggled against the run in recent weeks. They’ve allowed at least 100-yards rushing and one touchdown in four straight games. Elliott rushed for 151-yards and a touchdown plus had six catches for 36-yards and a touchdown in the first meeting. Not only is he one of the safest options in this spot, but he has the upside to be the highest scoring player on this slate.

Davis Mattek: Christian McCaffrey – Without Gurley on the main slate, CMC is the clear answer. With Greg Olsen now out for the rest of the year and Devin Funchess trying to play his way back from injury, McCaffrey is the first, second and third option for Carolina. Last week, the Panthers were dunked on by a terrible team; Cam turned the ball over four times and CMC still had 100+ rushing yards and 10 targets. Now that he is being used near the goalline, there is absolutely nothing impeding his fantasy value.

Meet the Experts Content Posting Times

About the Author

Comments

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

New to DFS?

Be sure to click through our links and use our exclusive promo codes to receive the industry's best sign-up bonuses, including free access to our premium content.

New RotoGrinders Sports Betting Section!

Are you a DFS player who wants to get into sports betting? Head over to our sports betting resources area and get the full rundown on legal online sports betting in the US.

If you're lucky enough to reside in (or close to) states with legal online sports betting, like New Jersey, then check out our NJ online sportsbook bonuses page to see what free bets are available to you right now.

Also of interest to DFSers are our sportsbook reviews, so remember to check out our DraftKings Sportsbook review and our FanDuel Sportsbook review to see what the DFS giants are up to in the sports betting realm.

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week. Our goal is to help all of our members make more money playing daily fantasy sports!

Disclosures: All RotoGrinders content contributors are active DFS players. Contributor screen names can be found on their respective RotoGrinders profile pages. Contributors reserve the right to use players or strategies not discussed in their content on RotoGrinders.