FanDuel NFL Expert Survey: Week 14
Want to know who Notorious is definitely paying up for in NFL DFS this week? Wondering which value play STLCardinals84 is eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy sports experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup building decisions for this week’s main slate contests.
Week 14 – Main Slate
Who is your favorite player for cash games?
Who is your favorite player for tournaments?
Who is your favorite salary saver on the board?
Which high-priced player will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?
Who’s your top contrarian play on the board?
Which low-priced chalk player are you most likely to have little to no exposure to?
Which low-priced chalk player are you most likely to have heavy exposure to?
Which player are you most afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?
Which skill position players (if any) are you targeting versus an elite defense?
Which NFL team are you targeting players from the most?
Davis Mattek: PIT
Which NFL team are you looking to avoid most?
Davis Mattek: NYJ
What’s the best position to spend up on this week?
meansy53: RB #1
Stevietpfl: RB #1
Davis Mattek: RB
What’s the best position to save salary on this week?
meansy53: RB #2
Stevietpfl: RB #2
Davis Mattek: RB
Which game has sneaky shootout potential this week?
Davis Mattek: HOU/IND
Which position will you have the most exposure to in FLEX?
Davis Mattek: RB
Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?
Notorious: The stars and scrubs approach is awfully enticing this week. We have Jaylen Samuels (starting for James Conner), Jeff Wilson (starting for Matt Breida), and Courtland Sutton (increased target share with Emmanuel Sanders out) all looking like core targets. Rather than focusing on a contrarian lineup build, I will instead focus on contrarian studs to differentiate my lineups.
STLCardinals84: Their defense gets basically no recognition, but the Bills are allowing just 294 total yards per game for the season and 236 total yards per game over the last three weeks. Both of those figures rank second in the league to Baltimore. Don’t sleep on their defense as an intriguing target in a matchup against the Jets.
meansy53: Keenan Allen went ‘squeaky wheel’ after the Week 7 game in London against Tennessee, complaining about targets. The Chargers then had their bye in Week 8. Since Week 9, no player has more targets than Allen’s 57.
Stevietpfl: The Jets only have three offensive touchdowns in the last five games. They’ve scored the third fewest passing touchdowns, and the seventh fewest rushing touchdowns.
Davis Mattek: Jeff Wilson seems as if he might be overlooked for Jaylen Samuels this week, but that is a mistake. Samuels was a WR in high school and received only 108 carries his final season as a high schooler. He was a hybrid h-back/tight end in college and never topped 80 carries at North Carolina State. His usage as a Steeler thus far has been primarily as a receiver. While I do think Samuels is a fine play, Wilson is more of a prototypical runner in the NFL and should almost double up Samuels in touches, assuming Mike Tomlin is telling the truth about Stevan Ridley.
What’s your hot take of the week?
STLCardinals84: The Atlanta/Green Bay game goes over 65 total points
MrTuttle: Both JuJu and Antonio Brown catch two touchdowns and top 100 yards.
meansy53: Eric Ebron has his second three-touchdown game of the season.
Stevietpfl: Jeff Wilson has 100+ total yards and scores at least one TD
Davis Mattek: Andrew Luck and the Colts offense bounces back from scoring 0 points last week, and we see another #BigTY game with over 100 yards and a score.
What is your favorite correlation of the week and why?
Notorious: Jameis Winston + two pass catchers + Alvin Kamara + Michael Thomas — This is obviously one of the top games to target this week and the fact that there is rain in the forecast could help lower ownership. I see Winston and Brees as comparable plays, so I’ll give the edge to Winston and get my Brees’ exposure through Kamara and Thomas. As far as the pass catchers to pair with Winston, Chris Godwin and Cameron Brate are my favorites.
STLCardinals84: Drew Brees to Michael Thomas – The New Orleans offense got a rude awakening last week against Dallas, and this is the perfect spot for a bounce-back game against a porous Tampa Bay defense. Thomas ranks third in the league in receptions and is capable of a big game at any time, and there is immense upside here in Week 14.
MrTuttle: Ben Roethlisberger + JuJu Smith-Schuster + Antonio Brown – This is about as expensive as you can get but I love the Steelers passing game in an away game against the Raiders. While most people will flock to Jaylen Samuels in James Conner absence, I’m more interested in leveraging the Steelers passing game in GPPs as it’s reasonable to think they use both JuJu and AB84 as an extension of the run game. I expect both guys to see double-digit targets which could translate into plenty of fantasy goodness with how good both are after the catch.
meansy53: Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen – I noted above the absurd amount of targets Allen has gotten in the past five weeks, which has ultimately accounted for approximately 35% of the team’s target share during that span. If we combine that with a matchup against a Cincinnati defense that ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA (and the likely absence of Melvin Gordon again), then the targets should be voluminous once again for Allen despite the Chargers being two-touchdown favorites in this one.
Stevietpfl: Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams – Atlanta is allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. They’ve allowed at least three passing touchdowns in seven of 12 games this season. Adams draws an excellent matchup on the outside this weekend and is in line to have a monster game. I expect the Packers to put up a big game this weekend and I really like the Rodgers/Adams combo.
Davis Mattek: The chalk answer is Drew Brees and Michael Thomas. That is definitely a good combination, but will be an aggressively-owned one. For tournaments, I will be looking at taking Patrick Mahomes in combination with Tyreek Hill. Hill played his worst game of the season last year, with 128 Air Yards turned into only one catch for 13 yards. Overrating the Ravens defense will be problematic for those without exposure to the Hill/Mahomes Stack.
Who is your top overall play (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
Notorious: Jaylen Samuels – He may not see 20 carries (his career high in college was 12), but he should see a bunch of targets and will likely get the goal line work. The Steelers have one of the highest implied totals of the slate and we get to target the starting running back at a huge discount. This is a spot where we shouldn’t overthink it. Not all chalk is created equal.
STLCardinals84: Jaylen Samuels – With Bell out of the picture and Conner hurt, Samuels is becoming the trendy pick of the week in a hurry. At this point, we know that the Pittsburgh system is conducive to running back production, no matter who the lead back is. Samuels showed well in relief of Conner last week, and there’s no reason to avoid him at a dirt cheap price tag. Even though he will be chalky, I can’t fade him in any format. I’m not buying the chatter that Ridley will be just as involved in a committee approach.
MrTuttle: Keenan Allen – I have a lot of uncertainty surrounding the value running back options on this slate as I’m not overly confident in projecting their workload. That uncertainty has me paying up a bit for safety with Keenan Allen as my top overall play on the slate. Allen is averaging nearly 13 targets per game over the last three contests and saw his volume spike to 19 targets in Week 13’s win against the Steelers where the Chargers used Allen as an extension of the run game in Melvin Gordon absence. Allen should be locked in for another double-digit target game in a favorable matchup and is simply still underpriced for his new found role in this Chargers offense.
meansy53: Jaylen Samuels – The salary relief on Samuels really comes in handy for Week 14. I know Samuels is more of a pass-catching back, but that should fit in perfectly with what the Steelers have been doing anyways. On the season, they are essentially tied for first (with the Vikings) for the highest pass play percentage (67%). Over the last three weeks, that number has skyrocketed up to almost 78%. The next closest team during that span is the Falcons at 71%. Sure, it’s possible that he doesn’t get goal line work in favor of Stevan Ridley, but he should be able to easily pay off this price tag due to his involvement in other facets of the game. And if he is able to get in the box, that is just icing on the cake.
Stevietpfl: Ezekiel Elliott – For some reason it seems like Elliott is flying under than radar this weekend, and he’s going to be one of my highest owned players. With some injuries to this Eagles defense, they have really struggled against the run in recent weeks. They’ve allowed at least 100-yards rushing and one touchdown in four straight games. Elliott rushed for 151-yards and a touchdown plus had six catches for 36-yards and a touchdown in the first meeting. Not only is he one of the safest options in this spot, but he has the upside to be the highest scoring player on this slate.
Davis Mattek: Christian McCaffrey – Without Gurley on the main slate, CMC is the clear answer. With Greg Olsen now out for the rest of the year and Devin Funchess trying to play his way back from injury, McCaffrey is the first, second and third option for Carolina. Last week, the Panthers were dunked on by a terrible team; Cam turned the ball over four times and CMC still had 100+ rushing yards and 10 targets. Now that he is being used near the goalline, there is absolutely nothing impeding his fantasy value.
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