DraftKings Tips: Late Swap
A little while ago, I created a video tutorial on how to get the most out of DraftKings’ late-swap feature—a feature that allows you to remove any player from your lineup whose game has not yet begun for any other player who also hasn’t yet played (assuming you stay under the salary cap).
Most people use the late-swap feature to remove injured players from their lineup, but I think there’s a big potential edge to be had by using the late-swap feature more strategically. Here’s a look at some tactics I use.
To recap, here are three ways I think you can gain an advantage by using the late-swap feature strategically.
1. Your flex should be the player with the latest game, whenever possible.
You should fill out your lineup as you’d like—don’t pick players based on the late-swap feature—but then rearrange the players you’ve chosen to give yourself as many options as possible. If you have three running backs with one in the flex, use the running back with the latest game time as your flex play. If you have four receivers, use the receiver with the latest game.
By starting the player with the latest game, you’re giving yourself more ‘outs’ if you want to make a switch. After the 1pm games, for example, you have more information about your lineup and how it compares to your opponents, so you can make changes if necessary to increase your win probability. With the flex spot open, you have more options for subbing players in and out.
2. Reassess how much risk you want to assume after each game slate.
The biggest thing to consider when making late swaps is “How much risk do I want to take on? Let’s say that you’re in a head-to-head matchup and crushing your opponent after the 1pm games, but you have a wide receiver in the flex. Knowing that running backs are safer options and that you want to avoid variance at all costs as a heavy favorite, it could make sense to switch your flex to a running back. That’s true even if you have the running back as the worse value; his narrower range of outcomes will improve your chances of winning since the only way you can lose is if your remaining players tank.
3. Remove/add stacks when necessary.
This is related to the last point, but you can use smart player combinations to help you increase or decrease risk/reward as you see fit. Maybe you’re in a five-man league and you consider yourself a pretty big underdog after the early games. You need as much volatility (and upside) as possible, so it could make sense to late-swap to a QB/WR pair. That will increase the ceiling and decrease the floor of your lineup. Since you’re an underdog, the decreased floor won’t really hurt you, so swapping to a stack will only improve your chances of winning.