DraftKings Week 1 Salary Analysis and Picks: Daily Fantasy RSI
An Introduction to Fantasy RSI
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a commonly used financial technical indicator that measures the average gain during times when a company’s stock is trading up and compares it with the average loss when a company’s stock is trading down.
While the RSI is not predictive, an RSI above 50 is considered to mean that a stock is overvalued, while an RSI below 50 is considered to mean that a stock is undervalued.
This same indicator could be applied to DFS to help visualize salary momentum, and better yet, to assist in determining undervalued/overvalued players in relation to their salary.
Heading into Week 1, we will need to focus primarily on players whose role is largely unchanged from the end of the previous season, as those are the players who will have their salary-based value most accurately reflected by the RSI. As we progress throughout the year, the RSI can be more broadly applied to the player pool, as we will have more continuity in our salary data and more defined player and team situations.
DraftKings Most Overvalued Week 1 Players Based on Fantasy RSI
Ian Thomas – $3400
Week one’s most overvalued player based on Fantasy RSI is Panthers TE Ian Thomas. Thomas never exceeded a $3100 price tag during the 2019 season and is currently recovering from a toe injury, which makes him a risky week one play. While his role in new OC Joe Brady’s offense remains to be seen, Thomas will, in all likelihood, be the 5th pass-catching option in Carolina, making him a desirable fade at his current salary.
Christian McCaffrey – $10000
CMC hasn’t been below 10k on DraftKings since week 8 of 2019, and he is week one’s most expensive player on DK, surprising nobody. Despite the concerning RSI, McCaffrey has historically exceeded his salary-based expectations as much as any player, and I would not recommend a fade of the 4th-year rusher against a sub-par Oakland defense. The only limiting factor for McCaffrey would be a change in his overall usage, but until we see that happen on game day, we can expect a continuation of the 30.95 DK points he averaged in 2019.
David Montgomery – $5900
After suffering a groin strain in training camp, the sophomore rusher is truly questionable facing Detroit in a game with a 44 over/under. Montgomery never eclipsed the $5700 salary mark in 2019, and he has averaged a concerning 6.7 DraftKings points in games with a total of 42 or more. Fantasy players would be wise to avoid Montgomery in week one.
George Kittle – $7200
The 49ers TE kicks off the season with a career-high DraftKings salary, making him one of the weeks most overvalued players according to Fantasy RSI. The good news for Kittle is San Francisco’s injury-riddled receiving corps, with prospective starting WRs Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel both listed as questionable for the 49ers opener vs Arizona. Kittle should be peppered with targets on Sunday, which bodes well given the 14.9 DK points he has averaged when given a greater than 20% target share. I would only recommend a fade of Kittle if Deebo and Aiyuk are expected to play.
Jordan Howard – $5100
Howard sets up as a solid fade candidate with Miami currently listed a touchdown underdog against New England. With just 30 receptions over the last two seasons, Howard won’t see the field much if Miami ends up playing from behind. Minimal ownership could convince some he’s worth a tournament flier, but game script concerns and the high Fantasy RSI suggest we ought to search elsewhere for RB value.
DraftKings most undervalued Week 1 players based on Fantasy RSI
Jakobi Meyers – $3500
With Mohamed Sanu recently cut, Meyers figures to take over a good portion of Sanu’s 67% snap share as the #3 WR. Jakobi’s 4.7 YAC per reception led the Patriots last season, but a slow start may be in the cards after he recently missed six consecutive practices with a shoulder injury. Meyers has since returned to practice, so we can safely assume he will get a decent complement of snaps in the Pats opener. Available for a modest $3500 salary, Meyers is a strong tournament flier at the WR position this week.
Chris Thompson – $4000
With Leonard Fournette’s surprise cut and Ryquell Armstead out for week one, the stars have aligned for Chris Thompson in Jacksonville. Thompson has never been trusted as a bell-cow rusher, but his pass-game prowess places him in an ideal game-script situation with the Jags as eight-point underdogs. Thompson ranked 16th among RBs last season in YAC, showcasing his elusiveness with the ball in his hands. Thompson profiles as a great salary-saving tournament play in week one.
Matt Breida – $5000
With Miami likely playing catch-up as a 6.5-point underdog against New England, Breida has a great chance to lead the team in touches. Previously playing in a crowded SF backfield limits the sample of data we have on the fourth-year rusher, but he has posted a respectable 10.9 DK points/game over the last two regular-seasons when given a 35% snap share or higher. A major receiving role in Miami is Breida’s to lose, making him a strong DraftKings play given their PPR scoring.
Baker Mayfield – $5700
The Browns are expected to air the ball out against the defending AFC North champions, so Baker Mayfield should see the passing volume needed for a strong fantasy performance against Baltimore. High total games have been friendly to Baker in the past, as he has averaged 19.1 DraftKings points in contests with a closing total of 48.5 or more, and 19.8 DK points in divisional games. With an over/under of 48.5 this week, Baker is cheap and will be low-owned in tournaments, setting him up nicely on DraftKings, especially when paired with fellow Fantasy RSI value: Odell Beckham.
Alvin Kamara – $7200
Saints RB Alvin Kamara has only been cheaper than $7200 two times in his last 29 regular-season games. The exceptional 22.5 DK points he has averaged in games with a total greater than 49 reflects what we can anticipate in the Saints’ week one matchup with Tampa Bay, which currently has an over/under of 49. With New Orleans targeting RBs at the third-highest rate in 2019, Kamara should see plenty of work as both a rusher and receiver.