DraftKings Week 10 Salary Analysis and Picks: Daily Fantasy RSI
An Introduction to Fantasy RSI
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a commonly used financial technical indicator that measures the average gain during times when a company’s stock is trading up and compares it with the average loss when a company’s stock is trading down.
While the RSI is not predictive, an RSI above 50 is considered to mean that a stock is overvalued, while an RSI below 50 is considered to mean that a stock is undervalued.
This same indicator could be applied to DFS to help visualize salary momentum, and better yet, to help determine undervalued/overvalued players in relation to their salary.
Let’s run through our 2020 salary data to see where the value is in Week 10 of NFL DFS on DraftKings.
DraftKings Most Overvalued Players Based on Fantasy RSI
J.D. McKissic – $4900
Unbelievably, McKissic ranked 2nd among Week 9 RBs in expected fantasy points, forcing Antonio Gibson truthers to question their entire process. McKissic has 2 things going for him, he’s locked into a strong receiving role (his 46 targets rank t-3rd among RBs) and he’s a significantly better pass blocker than Antonio Gibson (82.9 PFF pass-blocking grade compared to 19.2 for Gibson). Since Washington has found themselves losing in quite a few games this year, McKissic has stolen precious pass game work from Gibson, a trend fantasy players should get used to as we enter the 2nd-half of the season. For DFS purposes, McKissic can realistically only be used as a ‘run it back’ option in game stacks, as his playing time is entirely dependent on game script, he does not see goal-line work, and he’s been out-carried by Gibson 90-35 this year.
Melvin Gordon – $5200
Gordon saw a 60.3% snap share and 43% of Denver’s RB carries in a high scoring affair against Atlanta on Sunday, frustrating his fantasy owners for another week. Even at $5200, Gordon can’t be relied upon while splitting carries with Phillip Linsay in the league’s 6th lowest-scoring offense. Gordon has especially struggled this year when the Broncos are underdogs by more than a field goal, averaging just 10.5 DraftKings points in his 2020 matchups with Atlanta, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh. With Denver listed as 5-point underdogs against Las Vegas in Week 10, now is certainly not the time to roster the veteran RB.
Ronald Jones – $5300
Jones has unfortunately entered the land of forgotten fantasy RBs after his 18.3 touches per game in Weeks 1-7 was sliced by more than 50% to just 8.5 touches per game in Weeks 8+9. Even more painful for Jones’ owners, he’s been out-snapped by Leonard “Fat Lenny” Fournette 84 to 33 over the last 2 games. It’s certainly possible Jones can reenter fantasy relevance soon given that his playing time woes resulted from a 2nd-quarter fumble in Week 8. Even so, it’s more than safe to say he’s not playable until we see he’s back in Bruce Arians’ good graces.
Mike Gesicki – $4300
Despite being the 8th-most expensive TE on the Week 10 main slate, Gesicki ranks 23rd in expected fantasy points per game, 17th in targets, and 19th in yards after the catch among TEs. These numbers certainly spell concern, but Gesicki does have the highest average depth of target of any starting TE this season, making him a low-volume, high-ceiling play at $4300. With only 6 total targets in Tua’s first two starts, it doesn’t appear Gesicki will see the 6-8 targets per game he needs to warrant his current price tag. As the only TE over $4,000 with three games of 2.5 DraftKings’ points or less, Gesicki simply presents too much risk relative to other, similarly priced, TEs.
DraftKings Most Undervalued Players Based on Fantasy RSI
Emmanuel Sanders – $4800
Tied for the cheapest he’s been all season, Sanders should go under-owned ahead of a matchup against his former team: San Francisco. While the return of Michael Thomas to the Saints’ lineup limits Sanders’ to a WR2 role, his 6.7 targets per game in the NFL’s 4th-highest scoring offense can’t be ignored. With the 49ers allowing the 7th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, New Orleans will likely be forced to turn to a passing attack led by Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. The 18.4 DraftKings points Sanders’ has averaged in games with a total higher than 50 should force him into tournament consideration for any DFS player looking to stack this week’s 49ers v Saints game.
Evan Engram – $4500
Based on expected vs actual fantasy points, Evan Engram has been the 3rd-most unlucky fantasy TE this season. Engram is certainly talented enough to turn his touches into big plays, but the anemic nature of the Giants’ offense has harmed his overall efficiency. With a cushy matchup against an Eagles defense that’s allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing TEs, Engram has a fantastic opportunity to better capitalize on the 9.3 targets he’s seen over the last 3 games, assuming Daniel Jones can fire accurate passes his way.
Darren Waller – $5900
At this point, it’s safe to say Waller has gained admission to the elite fantasy TE club, joining George Kittle and Travis Kelce. With a 29% target share and nearly double the number of targets as the Raiders’ #2 option, Waller is the engine that makes this offense go. George Kittle being pushed to IR makes Waller the slate’s most expensive TE, and he has every path to success available in a matchup against Denver with a 52.5 over/under. Scoring single-digit fantasy points just twice this season, Waller is inarguably the TE with the highest ceiling and floor in week 10.
Tom Brady – $6300
Coming off a pitiful loss and his worst fantasy performance of the season, Brady is the 9th-most expensive QB in Week 10. It’s incredibly difficult to imagine PFF’s 3rd highest-graded QB posting back-to-back games with under 10 fantasy points, especially since his Week 10 opponent is Carolina, a team that’s given up 28.3 points per game the last 3 weeks. Excluding Brady’s disastrous week 9, the 23.1 DraftKings points he’s averaged rank 7th among healthy QBs (sorry Dak) and he’s been responsible for 2 of the 12 best fantasy games by a QB this year. With plenty of great options at QB this week I expect Brady to go overlooked in Week 10, making it the perfect ‘buy low’ opportunity.