Christmas DvA Matchup Analysis: Yahoo Edition
Happy Holidays! If you aren’t too busy with the Holiday festivities to make a lineup on Christmas, check out these interesting matchups I’ve compiled based on our Defense vs. Archetype Matchup Tool.
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We’re searching for players who might have a chance to exceed their median projections with efficient performances, and deliver us enough upside to succeed in GPPs. Let’s have a look at the best DvA matchups for each team and determine if their projections will allow us to use these players in Yahoo tournaments.
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Milwaukee Bucks
Brook Lopez is not a name we often find ourselves getting excited about when he’s properly priced. He’s exceeded 32 minutes just 7 times on the season, and 32 fantasy points just 3 times. The thing is: he’s not priced right on Yahoo. His median projection of 24 is not far from a viable GPP score already. He’s reached that 28+ point FPTS mark 13 times this season, with another 5 times eclipsing his median value. He has a positive matchup slated against Enes Kanter, a -1.64 DRPM player that will have to leave the friendly confines of the rim to guard “splash mountain” on the perimeter. The Knicks have allowed versatile bigs a 23.56% increase in blocks over league average, which we saw in both matchups for Lopez against the Knicks this season. On 12/1 Lopez had 2 blocks and on 10/22 he had 3. He reached GPP viable value at his Yahoo price in both contests, and makes for a nice play in the Million Dollar Baller.
New York Knicks
At his price tag of $16, you’re likely to give your GPP lineup a shot if you can reach 32-33 Yahoo fpts. That’s not a value Knox hits with regularity, but at his recent level of playing time it’s way more likely. He’s reached it 4 times in his last 7 games, and in each game has played big time minutes. Rebounds are a place where Knox could get an extra boost in addition to his usual scoring role. Brook Lopez spends a lot of time on the perimeter, and in the last contest vs. MIL we did see Kanter limited in his rebound total with just 7. It could be one reason perimeter players see a boost in their rebounding totals against the Bucks, with Scoring Wings boosted by 5% and 3 and D wings boosted by a very nice 19% over average. Assists are also a place that wing scorers have seen a big boost this season, and that is not a big part of what Knox has done to date. He’s had more than 3 assists just twice this season since taking on his expanded role. One of those times, he was playing the Milwaukee Bucks. Knox has the upside to return some extra profit on this price tag.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets have a general manager that seeks out the 3-point shot, and Eric Gordon fits the bill as a chucker willing to get it rolling from downtown. Scoring Wings have a 7.99% higher than average rate of 3PA vs. HOU, and now Gordon is faced with a stretch of games in which he’ll need to operate with more USG and (to some degree) more ball handling duty in the absence of Chris Paul. He’s launched 25 3PA in his last two games, but only made 9. If he gets hot, the upside is huge. Yahoo has failed to account for his 20 shot caliber role, and has him priced at just $13. He’s only going to need 30 fpts to give you a chance at that price, and he’s done that in each of his last two games without shooting particularly well. If he gets lit, he can obliterate that. He’s a tough fade for me, and I expect high ownership at a price this obviously bad.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Rockets rank 21st in DvA against post bigs, with just a 1.84% above average rate for the archetype. Steven Adams is capable of a nice performance, but I think $27 doesn’t leave that much room for profit. He’s going to need 40-44 fantasy points, and the Rockets are a team where he’s fallen short of that mark in the past. He was able to produce that amount on 11-08 vs. HOU though. That contest was aided by 2 steals and 9 free throw attempts (his third highest mark of the season), but he did have 4 assists as well. That matches up with the 16.64% increase post bigs have experienced when playing the Rockets this season. Adams isn’t the best play on the slate for the ‘Baller, but I wouldn’t call him the worst either. He has a chance.
Philadelphia 76ers
This is not a particularly good matchup, and we did see the Celtics do some scheming to take away Redick in the NBA playoffs last season. That said, it could be a little more difficult to focus on Redick now with Jimmy Butler on the squad and Ben Simmons showing signs of improvement scoring the basketball. Getting shots up is never much of an issue for Redick these days otherwise, and the Celtics have allowed a 3.66% USG bump to shooting wings on the season. In terms of GPP upside, Redick is going to need somewhere around 33 fantasy points on Tuesday to keep you in the mix, and unfortunately he’s only made it there 5 times this season. He does have a lot of upside beyond that, but even at a beatable price tag you’re asking for a top end outcome against a team that is a tough out against most archetypes. I think we can do better at SG Tuesday.
Boston Celtics
Minutes aren’t the only issue with trusting Gordon Hayward these days. His outputs waiver wildly on a team that has a very deep and talented roster across the board. The Celtics play in such a way that labeling any of their players with just one archetype is wrong, and we could debate whether we think Hayward is a scoring wing or a versatile forward depending on the game. One thing is for sure to me though: The Sixers tend to allow a LOT of usage to ball handling guards. That leads other positions – such as perimeter forwards – to see lower usage by default. Hayward has only reached his GPP viable score 3 times this season at his $18 price tag, and we shouldn’t be expecting him to play a big role as a ball handler in the game. There is also the issue of the Sixers unique player rotations, which could leave him on the court guarded by the defensive minded Jimmy Butler (+1 DRPM) more often than we’d prefer. I think Hayward CAN get there if he has some luck with blocks and steals, but I don’t see this as a matchup in which he gets an elevated shot total. He did get 12 shots up in 24 minutes on 10-16, but a lot has changed for the Sixers since then. If we think this price gets Hayward owned at a high rate, we can consider going under the field in our 10 lineups.
Los Angeles Lakers
This one is predicated on the absence of at least one of the two Lakers big men, and preferably both. Laker C JaVale McGee has been released from the hospital after dealing with a severe illness, but has the typical irrational mentality a lot of players have that make some “revenge games” real.
“Of course, that’s the only thing, the only game I’ve been thinking about while being bedridden is the Christmas Day game,” McGee told Yahoo Sports. “No offense to the other teams, but that’s really important to me. I’ve got to get better for that game. That’s the homecoming, the ring ceremony. It’s really important.”
Despite the potential return of McGee, we should still look at Post Bigs vs. GSW. In the last two weeks, Golden State has given up some production to the archetype. They’ve allowed games against DeAndre Jordan, Karl Anthony-Towns, Rudy Gobert, Serge Ibaka, and Willie Cauley-Stein above 40 fantasy points. If McGee and Chandler can’t go or remain limited, Zubac is coming off two solid performances against two very different teams. At the end of the day, playing Zubac isn’t about the recent big games allowed to post bigs or his recent efficient outputs. He’s the minimum salary, and needs just 25 points or so to keep us happy in GPPs. He could get to that score in far less than the 32 minutes he played in the last two.
The downside here is that he’ll also be highly owned if we get McGee news. It might be better to go light on the situation with this in mind. Luke Walton is liable to go small, and limit the overall center minutes available to spread around. We can pivot to comparable low priced options and let others guess on the playing time, especially if Zubac has company from Chandler and/or McGee.
Golden State Warriors
The Lakers are a prime time matchup for Versatile Bigs, ranking 25th against the position and allowing a 10% USG over average to the archetype. They also allow a big boost in rebounding, and we know Draymond Green can fill up the box score in all categories. It’s been slow going for Green this season, but we should be encouraged by his performance last time out vs. the Clippers. He reached his GPP viable score in that game (at his current $24 tag) and he was just 4/12 from the field. We haven’t yet seen the HUGE upside he’s had in years past this season, but that doesn’t mean the potential is just gone. He can get into the 40’s in this great matchup if he runs fairly well, and that would be brilliant at this affordable tag.
Portland Trail Blazers
We just saw this matchup a few days ago, and Nurkic came through with a score we can live with if it happened again. It’s worth noting his minutes were limited too by a blowout. We’d ideally like to see him approach 40 at a $23 tag, and fortunately we’ve seen him get to that level 10 times this season. If the Blazers can keep it close this time, Nurkic can easily do more than rebound and score. He earns more assists than you’d think for a big man, and the Jazz allow Post bigs to achieve a 27.24% boost in that category. The price is right for Nurkic in GPP, and the matchup certainly demands playing time for him if the game actually stays close.
Utah Jazz
Rubio dropped his 4th highest shot total of the season in just 26 minutes a few days ago against POR, and a lot of that could be schematic to the Blazers defense. Even if it’s not, Rubio has 12 FGA or more in 4 of his last 5 games against the Blazers. This seems like more of a trend than noise. In the last two weeks similar distribute-first PGs have had success against the Blazers (rank 21st), and the list of names is far from scary. At $17, Rubio need roughly 35 points to be driving a winning GPP lineup. He’s delivered that 9 times this season with HUGE boom potential beyond that level. He’s a very nice GPP play in a matchup that looks unattractive to the naked eye.
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