Primetime Parlay: Eagles vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 11:43:40

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Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped create a variety of fun same-game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through thousands of simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting apps. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a same-game parlay for the Philadelphia Eagles versus the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football.

The NFL offers a treat ahead of Thanksgiving with a Super Bowl rematch on Monday Night Football. The Kansas City Chiefs will welcome the Eagles in a matchup that could happen again in February. Patrick Mahomes continues to shines despite throwing to a set of young receivers. Jalen Hurts continues to be the engine behind one of the more efficient offenses in the league. Will we see a shootout? Will the defenses take over? Let’s preview the game before building a same-game parlay ticket on FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Eagles vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay

As of this writing, the Chiefs are 2.5-point favorites at home against the Eagles. Per SAO, the betting market has been interested mostly in the Eagles with 54% of bets and 51% of money falling on Philadelphia throughout the week. While the Kansas City defense has been incredible this season, the Chiefs’ offense has left plenty to be desired as Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes continue to look for ways to move the ball downfield with a less-than-spectacular wide receiver corps.

As for the implied game total, FanDuel posts a conservative 45.5 points with most of the action suggesting a low-scoring affair could be in the works. 65% of tickets were bet on the under while a whopping 85% went below the total. Unsurprisingly, a matchup of these two offensive juggernauts in primetime would draw a high number. That said, the defenses for both teams continue to play exceptionally well. The Chiefs’ defense — which continues to shine — might face its toughest test on Monday night.

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Jalen Hurts and company might be the toughest test for any defense. With the “Brotherly Shove” fetching all of the acclaim, the Eagles continue to make defenses guess with all of the weapons at Hurts’ disposal. Aside from the obvious with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, the Eagles now feature a running game with D’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell. While Dallas Goedert won’t suit up tonight, the Eagles are still rife with options for Jalen Hurts. Heck, they even brought Julio Jones into the mix.

Here is a rundown of pertinent statistics for both offenses.

Philadelphia Offense
3rd — 28.0 PPG
11th — 5.5 YPP
5th — 7.7 Passing YPA
21st — 4.0 Rushing YPA

Kansas City Offense
11th — 23.1 PPG
7th — 5.7 YPP
11th — 7.3 Passing YPA
15th — 4.1 Rushing YPA

As we see, the Chiefs’ offense of old has not shown up in 2023. Without a big-time playmaker on the outside, Patrick Mahomes and company rely on a strong defense and normally a rushing game to win close matchups. Does this mean that Mahomes cannot eclipse 300 yards?

Of course not. The Philadelphia defense is still strong against the run game and funnels offense through the air. A wounded secondary continues to give up yards in the air and has surrendered 7.2 yards per pass attempt over the last three weeks. While the Chiefs’ wide receivers are not superstars, Patrick Mahomes can still make plays against a weak secondary. While I am sure the Chiefs will attempt to establish a run game, I won’t be surprised when they abandon and look to attack the Eagles’ weakness.

The Chiefs offer the second-best scoring defense in the league with the third-best regarding yards per pass attempt. Kansas City is fifth in the league in sack rate but will have their hands full attempting to pressure and bring down Jalen Hurts. With the weather changing, however, the way that Kansas City is built is very conducive to winning in the playoffs. If Andy Reid can get a young wide receiver like Rashee Rice poised to make big plays ahead of the playoffs, the Chiefs will be tough to handle in January.

Let’s have a look at ParlayIQ’s thousands of simulations of this game and use the information to make our SGP ticket.

Same Game Parlay Picks for Monday Night Football

Swift Over 59.5 Rushing Yards
McKinnon Over 11.5 Receiving Yards
Pacheco Under 48.5 Rushing Yards

D’Andre Swift Over 59.5 Rushing Yards

Full disclosure, ParlayIQ features the over in 60% of game simulations. Prior to opening up ParlayIQ, I was convinced that I wanted to take the under in this game. I have not wavered and still believe that the defenses will rule the day. With that said, I believe there is a way to use ParlayIQ to build a ticket with props that seem rational given a low-scoring game script.

Thus, I open with D’Andre Swift rushing for at least 60 yards. A successful run game from Philadelphia likely leads to longer drives and fewer opportunities for Patrick Mahomes. While the Kansas City defense is exceptional, they struggle against opposing rushing offenses. The Eagles’ coaching staff knows this and will likely give D’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell plenty of opportunities to keep pressure off of Jalen Hurts.

ParlayIQ was bullish on this prop as well and we use it to start our ticket.

Jerick McKinnon Over 11.5 Receiving Yards

On the other hand, the Eagles’ rushing defense is elite. Ranked fifth with respect to yards per rushing attempt, the Chiefs would be wise to chuck the ball as much as they can against a weakened secondary. For that reason, I think Jerick McKinnon has a chance to see the field a bit more than usual on Monday night.

Isiah Pacheco has become the workhorse back for the Chiefs. While Pacheco has shown the capacity to catch passes out of the backfield this season, he is more of a threat running the football. Pacheco serves as a great complement to a strong defense. Grind the game down and give your defense time to rest and get back to work on the next drive.

Unfortunately, I think Isiah will need to give way to McKinnon a bit more tonight — especially if the Eagles grab a lead. I think ParlayIQ is right on the money with this prop, and we will add it as our second leg.

Isiah Pacheco Under 48.5 Rushing Yards

Well, we might as well just commit to this parlay. If we think the game is going to be a battle. between the Eagles’ running game and the Chiefs’ passing game, we should just include the under on Pacheco’s rushing. The Eagles have only allowed 475 rushing yards to the running back position this season.

It does not seem like teams are interested in even toiling with the running game against Philadelphia anymore. Therefore, I won’t toil with it either. Let’s close with this and see what type of price we can get on our ticket.