Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds, Prediction & Pick
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Odds
| Eagles Odds | -5 |
| Buccaneers Odds | +5 |
| Over/Under | 44.5 |
| Date | Mon, Sep. 25 |
| Time | 7:15 p.m. |
| TV | ABC |
NFL fans will be treated to another Monday Night Football double-header in Week 3, beginning with a matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Kickoff is set for 7:15 p.m. ET on ABC from Raymond James Stadium.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Eagles as 5-point favorites on the spread in this matchup. The total for this contest is set at over/under 44.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Philadelphia Eagles
How will Jalen Hurts hold up under pressure?
Last season, Jalen Hurts had a 21-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 73.2% completion rate, and averaged 8.5 yards per attempt from a clean pocket, according to PFF. When under pressure, he had a 4-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 45.0% completion rate, and averaged only 5.5 yards per attempt. In such situations, his turnover-worthy-play percentage more than doubled and his passer rating was nearly cut in half.
In 2022, Hurts was rarely under duress, playing behind the best pass-blocking offensive line in the NFL, per PFF. However, it has been a different story to begin 2023, with Hurts being pressured on 39.1% of his dropbacks. Through two weeks, the Eagles’ offensive line ranks 16th in pass-blocking grade. This Philadelphia offense is far more human than juggernaut when they are unable to give Hurts a clean pocket.
Defense returning key contributors
Philadelphia received great news at the end of practice this week, with safety Reed Blankenship, cornerback James Bradberry, and defensive tackle Fletcher Cox all avoiding an injury designation going into the weekend. In Week 2, the Eagles’ secondary unit was forced to play a number of inexperienced players due to missing pieces on a short week, which led to them allowing Kirk Cousins to throw for 364 passing yards and four touchdowns. Tonight, this unit is in much better shape, even with linebacker Nakobe Dean and cornerback Avonte Maddox on injured reserve.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay offense shaking and baking through two weeks
Simply, Baker Mayfield has been outstanding to begin 2023. He has a 68.1% completion rate and has thrown two touchdowns from a clean pocket. He owns a 71.4% completion rate and has a touchdown when under pressure. The main caveat to these early-season numbers is that he has faced two winless opponents – the Minnesota Vikings and the Chicago Bears. Still, Mayfield has taken care of the football and has handled all situations well, excelling in play action, no play action, against the blitz, and so forth.
However, it is worth pointing out that even at Mayfield’s peak in Cleveland, he struggled mightily under pressure. In 2020, Mayfield had a 28-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio from a clean pocket, but had a 2-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio when under pressure. The Philadelphia defense had a 34.5% pressure rate against Minnesota in Week 2. Mayfield is likely due for negative regression in this department, which creates a low floor for the Tampa Bay offense in this matchup.
Buccaneers’ defense putting pressure on opposing offenses early in 2023
Through two weeks of football, the Buccaneers’ defense had the 6th-highest weekly average pressure rate of any team in the NFL. However, that number is likely inappropriately skewed after taking advantage of Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears in Week 2. Nevertheless, this unit has done a good job scheming pressure from different areas of the field, with three players from three different positions each totaling at least five pressures in their first two games – Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (edge defender), Vita Vea (interior defensive lineman), and Devin White (linebacker).
Eagles vs. Buccaneers – Picks & Predictions
Despite scoring 34 points against the Minnesota Vikings, it is rather obvious that the Philadelphia offense is not firing on all cylinders right now. The offensive line has not performed anywhere near the level that they did in 2022, which has made life more difficult for Jalen Hurts in the pocket. Baker Mayfield has looked excellent through two weeks, but this will be, without a doubt, his toughest opponent of the young season – and it is likely the most he will be pressured of the three games to date. Mayfield has consistently struggled when under pressure in his career, making Tampa Bay’s offense difficult to trust in this matchup against a Philadelphia defense that is returning a few key players from injury. The under for the full game is a strong look. If bettors prefer to isolate Tampa Bay’s offense, BetRivers has the best available line on the under for their team total.
LEAN: Under 44.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)
PICK: Buccaneers Team Total u20.5 points (-124, BetRivers)