Eagles vs. Buccaneers Wild Card Preview: Odds, Betting Picks, and Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2022-01-16 14:32:26

Eagles vs. Bucs Odds

On Sunday afternoon, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will battle at Raymond James Stadium. Philadelphia enters play as a sizable underdog in this one after finishing the regular season 9-8. The Buccaneers are expected to roll in this Wild Card matchup, following a dominant 13-4 campaign. Let’s take a deeper dive into the data for these two teams reveal where we recommend action on this contest. Check back for more NFL betting tips throughout the playoffs.

Eagles

Since Week 8, the Eagles have averaged 190.7 rushing yards per game, eclipsing 200 rushing yards in five of those contests, and never totaling less than 121 rushing yards. In that span, Philadelphia has averaged an astounding 5.0 yards-per-carry on the ground. This statistic is even more impressive when considering that Miles Sanders has been on the sidelines each of the last two weeks. Sanders, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Howard, and Boston Scott have each run for 349 yards or more since Week 8, which should give bettors confidence in the Eagles’ rushing attack, regardless of who is in the backfield on Sunday. Hurts is far from an elite option at quarterback, but he is playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. If the Eagles’ coaching staff places a strong emphasis on running the football in this one, this offensive unit should have little trouble moving the chains all afternoon.

Since Week 10 (excluding Week 18 when Philadelphia rested the majority of their starters), the Eagles allowed only 190.6 passing yards per game, and never allowed more than 218 passing yards. In those seven games, Philadelphia held opposing signal callers to a 7-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and permitted only a 61.7 completion percentage. If there is any concern for Philadelphia’s defense on Sunday, it is due to the fact that defensive end Josh Sweat has yet to participate in practice this week. Sweat’s potential replacement options–Derek Barnett and Ryan Kerrigan are significant downgrades at the position. From Week 8 to Week 17, the Eagles were phenomenal against the run, allowing only 3.7 yards-per-carry and an average of 81.3 rushing yards per contest.

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay experienced a devastating blow to their offense, losing wide receiver Chris Godwin to a season-ending injury in Week 15 during a game against the New Orleans Saints. Still, Tom Brady performed well over the final three weeks of the regular season without Godwin on the field. In that span, Brady posted a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, completed 69.8 percent of his passes, and averaged 322.7 passing yards per game. Donovan Smith, Ali Marpet, Ryan Jensen, Alex Cappa, and Tristan Wirfs combine to form an elite offensive line. Brady and company face a tough task against a strong Philadelphia defense in the opening round of the playoffs, but this is one of the best offenses in the league–even without Godwin and Antonio Brown as pass-catching options.

The Buccaneers began the season looking as though they would be a historically strong run defense. By the time the regular season ended, Tampa Bay ranked only 13th in the NFL in yards-allowed-per-carry. Since Week 6, the Buccaneers have allowed an average of 112.0 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards-per-carry–allowing eight 100-yard games in their final 12 contests. This unit has permitted 36.8 rushing yards-per-game to opposing quarterbacks during this stretch. The Buccaneers have plenty equipped to slow down opposing quarterbacks, with Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean, Jordan Whitehead, and Antoine Winfield Jr. forming one of the best secondary units in the NFL. In Week 6, this unit held Jalen Hurts to 115 passing yards on only 12-for-26 passing. Hurts is likely to struggle through the air once again this weekend.

Wild Card Picks and Predictions

Per EdgHouse, the Buccaneers were 7-5 ATS this year when favored by a touchdown or more on the spread, though they failed to cover against the Eagles in Week 6 earlier this fall. If looking to include Tampa Bay in a parlay, the Buccaneers were 10-2 SU when favored by seven points or more this season. Philadelphia was winless in three games when priced as greater than a field goal underdog. Nevertheless, while we like Tampa Bay to win this game–we expect the Eagles to keep this one close, assuming Sweat is able to suit up in some capacity on the defensive line. It is worth noting that Philadelphia’s coaching staff is always a concern when it comes to offensive play calling.

If understandably looking to avoid a play on the spread in this one on Sunday, we anticipate a lower-scoring affair. In the last nine games in which Tampa Bay has been favored by at least a touchdown, the Under is 7-2. Factor in that we could see some run-friendly weather this weekend in Florida and the under has even more value. These two teams rank 12th and 14th respectively in plays run per game over the last three weeks. It would be surprising to see a shootout. Take the under. Also note that I’m buying a point here.

PICK: Under 47 (-130)

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