Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Eagles vs. Chiefs Odds
|Date||Mon, Nov. 20|
On Monday Night Football, NFL fans will be treated to a rematch of this past February’s Super Bowl between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs. Through the first half of the season, these two teams appear to be on a collision course for another February meeting, with both the Eagles and Chiefs atop their respective conference through 10 weeks.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Chiefs as 2.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 45.5 points.
What to expect from Jalen Hurts
Philadelphia has won eight of their first nine games to begin the new season, but Jalen Hurts has been much closer to good than great this year as a passer. Hurts enters play ranked only 14th in passer rating from a clean pocket, per PFF. Only Mac Jones has a higher percentage of turnover-worthy-plays from a clean pocket among qualified quarterbacks.
Nevertheless, Hurts separates himself from mediocrity with his impact in the run game. In nine games, he has seven rushing touchdowns and only one game with fewer than 28 rushing yards. Hurts could be dangerous as a runner in tonight’s matchup against a Chiefs defense that has allowed three of the last four quarterbacks they have faced to go over their rushing yards prop at sportsbooks. In their last four games alone, they have allowed 30 rushing yards or more to Russell Wilson twice. Justin Fields also had 47 rushing yards against Kansas City earlier in the season. According to Jeff McLane, Hurts was blitzed on 19 of his 42 dropbacks when these two teams met in the Super Bowl, which afforded him multiple opportunities to escape for yards with his legs. It would not be surprising to see more of the same on Monday.
Justin Evans ruled OUT
Safety Justin Evans will not be on the field on Monday due to a knee injury, per Jeff McLane. Evans has not played since Week 5, and his absence has been felt by the Philadelphia secondary unit.
From Week 6 to Week 10, the Eagles defense ranked 18th in EPA/play and 30th in success rate overall. They were 15th in dropback EPA/play and 28th in dropback success rate. Though Philadelphia has been able to continue to have success in the win column, they have been giving up a significant amount of yards of late. In each of their last two wins, the Eagles have been out-gained by at least 98 yards.
This unit is vulnerable this evening against a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes looking to get back on track
Patrick Mahomes has been off his game the last two times he has taken the field, at least by his standards. In Week 9, he was dealing with an illness and threw for only 240 passing yards, including a pair of interceptions, in a 24-9 defeat to the Broncos. In Frankfurt the following week, Mahomes took better care of the football, but he still had only 185 passing yards.
Tonight, the weather forecast looks like Mahomes will have poor passing conditions as he looks to rebound statistically. However, there is still reason to be optimistic about Mahomes having a strong performance against a Philadelphia defense that has been reeling in recent weeks. Kansas City is healthy and should have all of their top options available tonight as they look to further solidify their position at the top of the AFC playoff picture.
Kansas City defense surviving absence of Nick Bolton
Linebacker Nick Bolton, who is one of the better run defenders in the NFL, is currently on injured reserve with a wrist injury, but the Chiefs have performed well in his absence. Since Bolton last played in Week 7, Kansas City ranks 8th in defensive EPA/play and 9th in defensive success rate. The Chiefs have been particularly strong against the pass in that stretch, ranking in the top-five in both dropback EPA/play and dropback success rate. The larger vulnerability for this group is their inability to consistently stop the run game – ranking 23rd in rush EPA/play and 29th in rush success rate in that span without Bolton on the field.
Eagles vs. Chiefs – Picks & Predictions
Though this matchup is being advertised as a Super Bowl rematch, the reality is that these two teams look quite a bit different than they did this past February. Philadelphia has an 8-1 record entering play, but they have been out-gained by 212 yards in their last two games and have allowed 12 more first downs than they have earned on offense.
Patrick Mahomes and company are one of the more disciplined teams in the NFL and head coach Andy Reid has been great in his career coming off of a bye week. Reid and the Chiefs have won five consecutive games following their bye week and Reid is 21-3 off of a bye in his career. At less than a field goal on the spread, Kansas City is the smart side on Monday Night Football.
PICK: Chiefs -2.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)