Eagles vs. Chiefs Player Props: Top NFL Picks for Mahomes, Pacheco, and Smith
What kind of performances can we expect on Monday Night Football from Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, and DeVonta Smith? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Monday, November 20, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more football props, at ScoresandOdds.
Week 11 of the NFL regular season will conclude with a matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Monday Night Football. Entering play, both teams lead their respective conference in winning percentage and would have home field advantage throughout the playoffs if the season ended today.
Ahead of kickoff, the Chiefs are favored by 2.5 points on the spread. The game total is set at over/under 46 points. If choosing to wager instead on the player prop market, we have three prop leans for tonight’s matchup!
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Eagles vs. Chiefs Player Props for MNF
- Patrick Mahomes u26.5 Completions
- Isiah Pacheco o48.5 Rushing Yards
- DeVonta Smith More Than 5.0 Receptions
Patrick Mahomes u26.5 Completions (-105), BetMGM
Patrick Mahomes has eclipsed this market number only four times in nine games played this fall and tonight has unfriendly weather conditions to contend with in a tough matchup against the Eagles. RotoGrinders meteorologist Kevin Roth is forecasting sustained winds of 10 miles-per-hour with gusts of around 25 miles-per-hour, which is far from ideal for passing attacks. Kansas City is likely to prioritize their ground attack in this contest, especially if they are playing with a lead. The under makes sense in this spot, given the matchup and the forecast.
Isiah Pacheco o48.5 Rushing Yards (-114), FanDuel
Philadelphia’s defense is allowing the 5th-fewest yards per carry of any team in the NFL this season, but the underlying metrics are much less optimistic about their chances of slowing down Isiah Pacheco on Monday Night Football. From Week 5 to Week 10, the Eagles defense ranked 26th in rush EPA/play and 12th in rush success rate. Pacheco has been one of the better running backs in the league this fall, averaging 4.2 yards per carry. He has eclipsed this market number six times in his last eight games played and was the only member of the Kansas City backfield to record more than one rush attempt in their win over the Dolphins in Frankfurt. This is a low market number for a talented player, making the over an appealing option for bettors.
NFL DFS Pick’em
DeVonta Smith More Than 5.0 Receptions, PrizePicks
DeVonta Smith has recorded five receptions or more in only four of his nine games played in 2023, but there are plenty of reasons to believe that he bounces back tonight against the Chiefs. According to PFF, Smith has lined up out wide on 76.4% of his snaps this fall, which means the majority of his work this evening should come against L’Jarius Sneed and Justin Watson – both of whom rank 87th or worse out of 114 qualified players at their position in coverage grade this year. Strong winds should force a shorter average depth of target in this matchup, which favors Smith over A.J. Brown, making this a worthwhile risk.
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