Embracing the Madness with FanDuel's Bracket Pick'em
It’s March. MARCH MADNESS!
When the second week of March rolls around, I find myself checking the NCAA tournament schedule before planning any activities (dinner included). This year’s bracket is out, and you know what that means – it’s time for college basketball to take center stage. Over 13.3 million brackets were submitted in ESPN’s free Tournament Challenge in 2017.
Whether you’re a die-hard fan rooting for your alma mater or you just have a soft spot for underdog stories, it’s hard not to love the single-elimination NCAA basketball tournament. This year, FanDuel is giving us a new bracket contest to try out, called Bracket Pick’em. The rules are simple, and best of all, it’s a free chance to win your share of $20,000, so let’s dive right into how to attack this contest!
How To Play
Historical Data
I thought it would be best to start out by going through the results from the last 10 NCAA tournaments to see what trends emerged, so that’s exactly what I did. First of all, FanDuel is doing us all a favor by stipulating that your five chosen teams’ seeds must add up to at least 20 because the five highest-scoring teams in each of the last 10 years have always met this criteria. Tournament champions are in bold.
| Year | Most Points | Second-Most | Third-Most | Fourth-Most | Fifth-Most | Point Total | Seed Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 1 Kansas (935) | 10 Davidson (850) | 1 Memphis (435) | 12 Western Kentucky (tie, 420) | 12 Villanova (tie, 420) | 3060 | 36 |
| 2009 | 1 North Carolina (935) | 2 Michigan State (870) | 3 Villanova (555) | 12 Arizona (420) | 3 Missouri (255) | 3035 | 21 |
| 2010 | 5 Butler (2175) | 1 Duke (935) | 5 Michigan State (925) | 6 Tennessee (510) | 12 Cornell (420) | 4965 | 29 |
| 2011 | 8 Butler (3480) | 3 Connecticut (2805) | 11 VCU (2035) | 4 Kentucky (740) | 5 Arizona (425) | 9485 | 31 |
| 2012 | 1 Kentucky (935) | 2 Kansas (870) | 4 Louisville (740) | 7 Florida (595) | 13 Ohio (455) | 3595 | 27 |
| 2013 | 4 Michigan (1740) | 9 Wichita State (1665) | 1 Louisville (935) | 4 Syracuse (740) | 15 FGCU (525) | 5605 | 33 |
| 2014 | 7 Connecticut (6545) | 8 Kentucky (3480) | 11 Dayton (935) | 11 Tennessee (385) | 2 Wisconsin (370) | 11715 | 39 |
| 2015 | 7 Michigan State (1295) | 1 Duke (935) | 1 Wisconsin (435) | 11 UCLA (385) | 4 Louisville (340) | 3390 | 24 |
| 2016 | 2 Villanova (1870) | 10 Syracuse (1850) | 6 Notre Dame (510) | 1 North Carolina (435) | 11 Gonzaga (385) | 5050 | 30 |
| 2017 | 7 South Carolina (1295) | 1 North Carolina (935) | 11 Xavier (935) | 3 Oregon (555) | 1 Gonzaga (435) | 4155 | 23 |
So, the data says that it’s important to pick the champion. That makes sense (thanks, Nicole, you’ve been so helpful). In fact, the champion finished no lower than third, and that only happened once in the past 10 years. 2013 was an outlier in that two 4-seeds and a 9-seed made the final four. Syracuse and Michigan met in the Final Four, guaranteeing that a 4-seed would play for the championship. The 2014 final pitted No. 7 Connecticut against No. 8 Kentucky, marking the first (and still, only) time in history that none of the number 1, 2, or 3 seeds made the championship game. A number 1 seed has won seven of the past 10 tournaments, and only twice in the last decade has a number 1 seed failed to be a top-five point-scorer. Of the eight 1 and 2 seeds, a maximum of two reached the top five in a single tournament. The final takeaway I want to point out here is that at least one double-digit seed is represented every year.
Let’s break down the top five point-getters in a modified table, this time showing how many wins the top five teams had during the tournament and which regions they played in.
| Year | Most Points | Second-Most | Third-Most | Fourth-Most | Fifth-Most | Win Total | Different Regions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 6 wins (Midwest) | 3 wins (Midwest) | 5 wins (South) | 2 wins (tie, West) | 2 wins (tie, Midwest) | 18 | 3 |
| 2009 | 6 wins (South) | 5 wins (Midwest) | 4 wins (East) | 2 wins (Midwest) | 3 wins (West) | 20 | 4 |
| 2010 | 5 wins (West) | 6 wins (South) | 4 wins (Midwest) | 3 wins (Midwest) | 2 wins (East) | 20 | 4 |
| 2011 | 5 wins (Southeast) | 6 wins (West) | 4 wins (Southwest) | 4 wins (East) | 3 wins (West) | 22 | 4 |
| 2012 | 6 wins (South) | 5 wins (Midwest) | 4 wins (West) | 3 wins (West) | 2 wins (Midwest) | 20 | 3 |
| 2013 | 5 wins (South) | 4 wins (West) | 6 wins (Midwest) | 4 wins (East) | 2 wins (South) | 21 | 4 |
| 2014 | 6 wins (East) | 5 wins (Midwest) | 3 wins (South) | 2 wins (Midwest) | 4 wins (West) | 20 | 4 |
| 2015 | 4 wins (East) | 6 wins (South) | 5 wins (West) | 2 wins (South) | 3 wins (East) | 20 | 3 |
| 2016 | 6 wins (South) | 4 wins (Midwest) | 3 wins (East) | 5 wins (East) | 2 wins (Midwest) | 20 | 3 |
| 2017 | 4 wins (East) | 6 wins (South) | 3 wins (West) | 4 wins (Midwest) | 5 wins (West) | 22 | 4 |
This new view of the same data is interesting. There’s a sweet spot of 20 wins for the top five point-scorers, which equates to four wins per squad, also known as a Final Four appearance. If at least two of your teams make the Final Four, you’ll be in really good shape to reach the goal of 2500 points. My favorite result from this table, which I decided to build before I knew the actual results, is that it’s pretty clear that an optimal score comes from picking our five teams from at least three different regions.
To recap the key findings:
1) Your five teams shouldn’t include more than two total No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, but should include at least one.
2) Select teams from at least three different regions.
3) Include at least one double-digit seed.
4) Don’t expect another No. 7 vs. No. 8 in the title game; bet on at least one No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 seed to be there.
2018 Bracket Breakdown
Now that we’ve nailed down some basic guidelines, it’s finally time to talk about this year’s bracket. While the upsets in the first weekend of the tournament make for great entertainment, typically the Cinderella stories turn into pumpkins by the Sweet Sixteen. This chart of Final Four teams by seed paints the picture quite clearly. Seeds are in parentheses.
| Year | Champion | Runner-Up | Final Four | Final Four |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | North Carolina (1) | Gonzaga (1) | Oregon (3) | South Carolina (7) |
| 2016 | Villanova (2) | North Carolina (1) | Oklahoma (2) | Syracuse (10) |
| 2015 | Duke (1) | Wisconsin (1) | Michigan St. (7) | Kentucky (1) |
| 2014 | Connecticut (7) | Kentucky (8) | Florida (1) | Wisconsin (2) |
| 2013 | Louisville (1) | Michigan (4) | Wichita St. (9) | Syracuse (4) |
| 2012 | Kentucky (1) | Kansas (2) | Louisville (4) | Ohio St. (2) |
| 2011 | Connecticut (3) | Butler (8) | Kentucky (4) | VCU (11) |
| 2010 | Duke (1) | Butler (5) | West Virginia (2) | Michigan St. (5) |
| 2009 | North Carolina (1) | Michigan St. (2) | Villanova (3) | Connecticut (1) |
| 2008 | Kansas (1) | Memphis (1) | North Carolina (1) | UCLA (1) |
| 2007 | Florida (1) | Ohio St. (1) | UCLA (2) | Georgetown (2) |
| 2006 | Florida (3) | UCLA (2) | George Mason (11) | LSU (4) |
| 2005 | North Carolina (1) | Illinois (1) | Michigan St. (5) | Louisville (4) |
| 2004 | Connecticut (2) | Georgia Tech (3) | Duke (1) | Oklahoma St. (2) |
| 2003 | Syracuse (3) | Kansas (2) | Texas (1) | Marquette (3) |
| 2002 | Maryland (1) | Indiana (5) | Kansas (1) | Oklahoma (2) |
| 2001 | Duke (1) | Arizona (2) | Maryland (3) | Michigan St. (1) |
| 2000 | Michigan St. (1) | Florida (5) | Wisconsin (8) | North Carolina (8) |
2018 profiles similarly, with Virginia and Villanova opening with the best odds to cut down the nets in San Antonio. Everyone pays so much attention to the seeds next to each team’s name that sometimes the matchups go overlooked, and some of the so-called “upsets” are really not as crazy and unexpected as the general public makes them out to be. You might be able to find a great sleeper simply by looking at the point-spreads of the Thursday and Friday matchups before submitting your brackets.
There are 351 NCAA Men’s Division I basketball teams, and just like with college football, their playing styles vary much more widely than in the pro ranks. Add in the facts that the skill level is lower and we’re dealing with a bunch of 18-22-year-olds, and it becomes easy to see why it’s impossible to predict the bracket. I’m not one to back down from a challenge, though, so here we go!
South Region
The number one overall seed, Virginia, has had an incredible season, only losing twice and cruising to the regular-season and ACC tournament titles. The biggest concern with the Cavaliers right now is history. Despite being a No. 1 seed for the third time in five years, Tony Bennett’s squads have come up short in March, failing repeatedly to reach the Final Four. This could be the year they buck the trend, though.
Cincinnati, the number two seed, is set up nicely in the bottom half of the bracket. The Bearcats have the second-ranked defense in the nation, and if the seeding holds, would face Virginia in a first-to-60-points-wins type of game.
An enticing Round of 32 matchup between No. 4 Arizona and No. 5 Kentucky looms, with the potential number one pick in the NBA draft, Deandre Ayton of Arizona, facing off with the SEC Tournament Champions, who seem to be peaking at the perfect time. Kentucky is a risky Final Four pick that could hit big, but the draw is very tough. I’m pulling for Virginia to make the Final Four and I think this is the year they finally come through.
11th-seeded Loyola-Chicago is a trendy sleeper. They have to get past Miami (FL) and an experienced tournament coach in Jim Larranaga in the Round of 64, but the ULC Ramblers are one of the top-shooting teams in the country, which is always helpful in a single-elimination format.
West Region
A lot of pundits see Xavier as the weakest number one seed. I agree, but with one of the best coaches in the country in Chris Mack, this team shouldn’t be so easily dismissed. This region feels wide-open and has strong contenders in No. 2 North Carolina, No. 3 Michigan, and No. 4 Gonzaga. North Carolina has a ton of tournament experience, Michigan is getting love from the oddsmakers, and Gonzaga is playing close to home. My prediction is that Joel Barry, Theo Pinson, and Luke Maye carry North Carolina to another Final Four berth, defeating Gonzaga in the Elite Eight.
The 5-12 battle between Ohio State and South Dakota State will be appointment television. Guard Mike Daum of SDSU (23.8 PPG, 10.4 RPG) is the best player most of the country has never heard of. This game is in Boise, so the Jackrabbits should have the crowd on their side and they are dancing for the third straight year. I’m cheering for SDSU to make a deep run and Daum to be this year’s player to remember from the opening weekend so I’ll tab South Dakota State as my favorite double-digit seed.
East Region
Point guard Jalen Brunson and swingman Mikal Bridges lead No. 1 Villanova into the NCAA Tournament, fresh off of a victory in the Big East Tournament title game. Villanova’s strong 3-point shooting (39.8% as a team) could bring coach Jay Wright his second NCAA title in the last 3 seasons. I’m penciling Villanova in for another run to the Final Four.
The matchup I’m hoping we get in this region is Villanova versus fifth-seeded West Virginia in the Sweet Sixteen. Tune into one of the Mountaineers’ games and it doesn’t take long to see why they earned their “Press Virginia” nickname. Wichita State, the four seed, has a rough path to the Sweet Sixteen, opening with the run-and-gun Thundering Herd of Marshall, whose up-tempo, freewheeling style is a fun card to play as an underdog.
Keep an eye on Texas Tech in the bottom half of the bracket. The Red Raiders could be underseeded, even though they are a No. 3 seed, because their best player, guard Keenan Evans, has been battling a toe injury. No. 2 Purdue presents matchup problems for everyone with 7’2” Isaac Haas manning the paint.
The First Four game between St. Bonaventure and UCLA will have my full attention, because the winner of this game has the veteran guards more than capable of making a March run to the Sweet Sixteen. If that happens, you’ll want this team as one of your five selections in Bracket Pick’em.
Midwest Region
Rock Chalk, Jayhawk. Ho, hum, Kansas is once again the No. 1 seed in the Midwest, although I think they are a notch below Virginia and Villanova. If you like elite NBA prospects, then this region is for you. From Marvin Bagley III of Duke to Miles Bridges of Michigan State, there are plenty of big names and top programs in the Midwest. The last team standing from this region should be Kansas, Duke, or Michigan State. It’s not smart to bet against Tom Izzo in March, so I won’t. Sparty is my pick to advance out of the Midwest Region.
Despite Charles Barkley’s protestations, Oklahoma made the field as a 10-seed. Freshman Trae Young leads the nation in scoring (27.4 PPG) and assists (8.8 APG). If you somehow haven’t seen Young play yet, you’ll want to catch Oklahoma’s opening game, because seventh-seeded Rhode Island could make the Sooners’ stay in the Big Dance a short one.
12th-seeded New Mexico State is my favorite double-digit seed in this region. The Aggies are strong defensively, but their overall record (28-5) is boosted by playing in a weak conference. No. 4 Auburn and No. 5 Clemson haven’t been this highly-ranked recently and have both lost key players to season-ending injuries, so it wouldn’t surprise me for New Mexico State to pick up a couple of victories before being eliminated.
Final Thoughts
Pay close attention to the FanDuel rule that states you can’t edit your teams for Bracket Pick’em once you have submitted them. Make sure your seeds total at least 20.
No one’s going to fill out a perfect bracket, so just have fun with it, enjoy the Madness and remember to have plenty of snacks on hand in case there’s overtime. I could talk about this tournament all day long, so if I didn’t mention your favorite team or you have any questions about particular matchups or players, please post a comment and I’ll answer it. Cheers!