EPL Daily Plays: Wednesday, March 4th
We have another day of Premier League soccer to enjoy, and this time, its an afternoon Wednesday slate. I know that most of you (including myself) have an eye on NBA for tonight’s huge slate, but, until the lineups lock at 7pm EST you know you want to enjoy a nice soccer sweat with some GIANT GPPs on DraftKings. DK is continuing their Micro Millions events with EPL this afternoon (Micro Millions #’s 40-43 are all in the lobby right now and lock at 2:45pm EST) So make sure to enter whichever ones fit your budget and bring some money home!
Today’s games are very intriguing, all the usual suspects are in play and the matchups all look appetizing, however, there are bound to be some diamonds in the rough that I’ll be looking to uncover. As always, be sure to check lineups about an hour before lock and if you like, you can hit me up on twitter for any last minute questions DFS_Hambazaza.
Goalkeepers
Hugo Lloris, Tottenham $4,900 – Hugo Lloris is my favorite keeper on the day, he’s facing a Swansea team that is coming into the game with a two-game win streak, however, I’m not 100% convinced that Swansea can carry that momentum into this matchup. On the flip side, Tottenham are in bad form as they just lost the Capital One Cup final to Chelsea and bowed out of the Europa League losing 3-1 on aggregate to Fiorentina. So why is Lloris my top keeper you ask? According to various oddsmakers, Tottenham is a favorite in this match, not as big a favorite as other options, but they are favorites nonetheless. Also, in their last four matches, Swansea has not been one of the most prolific attacking teams, as they are ranked 18th in minutes per chance, while only getting 33% of their shots on target and converting 10% of them into goals. Overall, Lloris should face some shots and be forced to make some saves, and I suspect that he will reward those who roster him.
Asmir Begovic, Stoke City $4,400 – A combination of matchup and price have led me to recommending Asmir Begovic again this week. Facing Everton has been a recipe for success, as the last four keepers that faced Everton had fantasy totals of 15 (Arsenal), 0 (Leicester), 18 (Chelsea) and 7 (Liverpool). On the other hand, Begovic’s last four games featured totals of 10 (Hull), 7 (Aston Villa), 0 (Manchester City) and 4 (Newcastle). While these aren’t eye-popping numbers, what it does tell me is that Everton struggled to score against most teams, while Begovic is a keeper who is capable of a double-digit game and is trending upwards. In their last six away games, Everton only managed 3 goals total and have currently lost five of these six games. You would not go wrong by paying up for any favorites in today’s matchups, but a good differentiation play would go a long way in earning you a GPP win.
Other Keepers I Like: Joe Hart – Manchester City ($5,300), David Ospina – Arsenal ($5,200), Thibaut Courtois – Chelsea ($5,400), Tim Krul – Newcastle ($3,600)
Defenders
Branislav Ivanovic, Chelsea $5,300 – With goals in four of his last seven games, Ivanovic is a striker playing fullback for the Blues. Of course, he’s not actually a striker, but even if he fails to score he is always a threat and with Chelsea being a favorite in this match, Ivanovic makes for a nice play regardless.
Danny Rose, Tottenham $4,100 – Rose has been excellent for Tottenham in recent weeks, delivering double-digit performances in five of the last seven matches, and giving Tottenham a player who attacks down the flanks. He scored a goal last weekend and should continue to start and provide some offense for Tottenham.
Erik Pieters, Stoke $3,200 – He’s coming off one of his best games as he’s reached 14 fantasy points without scoring or assisting on a goal. In his last two games, he has 9 crosses and three chances created. This is pointing to the potential for an assist, as well as a lot of production, heading into this matchup with Everton. He also has 30 touches in the final third last two game weeks putting him above his average for the season which implies he’s trending forwards more. In a matchup where his team is favored, I can see him being an underutilized defensive option with everybody gravitating towards the fancier names such as Trippier, Ivanovic and others.
Other Defenders I Like: Kieran Trippier – Burnley ($5,100), Cesar Azpilicueta – Chelsea ($4,300), Alberto Moreno – Liverpool ($4,000), Hector Bellerin – Arsenal (4,000), Daryl Janmaat – Newcastle ($3,500), Phil Bardsley – Stoke ($3,300)
Midfielders
Christian Eriksen, Tottenham $7,800 – Eriksen has been a mainstay in this column for every game week and for good reason. He can deliver crosses, assists and draw fouls. He also has scored 9 times this season and is the primary free kick taker for Tottenham. Tottenham should get a goal or two in this game and Eriksen will be involved in it and hopefully get himself an assist to Harry Kane.
Yaya Toure, Manchester City, $7,400 – Toure is back from the African Cup of Nations, and while he hasn’t had the impact that many thought he would in the last two games, I think this is a game that Toure breaks out and provides his team a push towards a good win. His peripheral numbers have looked good with 0.8 minutes per touch and 1 minute per pass received. He has an 82% pass success rate and a 72% pass success rate in the final third. He is an extremely volatile play and carries a very low floor, but many will ignore him because of his price and other options that are available at that same price range. Toure could, however, breakthrough with several crosses and an assist or even a goal. This week seems like ample opportunity for that to take place.
Charlie Adam, Stoke $4,700 – If Charlie Adam gets the start this afternoon, then he has a very high floor as he delivers crosses like they’re going out of style. If he does get the start today you can expect about a cross for every 17 minutes of play, which would equate to about 4-6 crosses on the day, and at that price it would be very tough to pass up on.
Other Midfielders I Like: Cesc Fabregas – Chelsea ($7,400), Eden Hazard – Chelsea ($9,000), Mesut Ozil – Arsenal ($8,000), Philip Coutinho – Liverpool ($5,900), Riyadh Mahrez – Leicester ($5,400), Charlie Adam – Stoke ($4,700), Matt Phillips – QPR ($4,000)
Forwards
Wayne Rooney, Manchester United $9,700 – I like all the top six options price wise at forward today, and believe that all are capable of scoring multiple goals. However, to break the tie I had to dig a little bit deeper. Rooney is coming off a match where he scored two goals, and while one of them was a penalty, he is finally playing the forward spot and not as a midfielder. This has allowed Rooney to be more aggressive in his attacks and led to goal scored last weekend. He’s also benefiting from facing a weak defense in Newcastle. Newcastle has allowed the sixth most goals in the last six weeks (9 goals conceded), while in their last six home games they have conceded the second more goals (9 goals conceded). When comparing that to the opponents the other forwards are facing, Rooney all of a sudden stands as the favorite to score a goal this week.
Sergio Aguero, Manchester City $10,100 – Aguero is my second favorite high dollar striker. He has scored or assisted in the last four games for City and has topped 20 fantasy points twice. He’s an elite option this week in a good matchup against a Leicester squad that has allowed opponents to score 42 times this season and only four clean sheets on the season. Aguero is a great option today, but if you want to save some coin and use it elsewhere, Wilfried Bony is expected to get the start this afternoon in place of Edin Dzeko, so Bony is my alternative choice for City up front.
Daniel Sturridge, Liverpool $7,500 – You can’t beat this price tag. Sturridge is playing as the CF for Liverpool and priced at $7.5K, he’s got the potential of a $10K performer this afternoon against a weak Burnley defense that has allowed 13 goals in their last six matches. If Sturridge comes through it will be worth every penny and he’s almost a must play if he starts.
Peter Crouch, Stoke $5,400 – I’m not sure what more Crouch has to do in order to increase his price, but with three goals in his last three matches and facing an Everton team that is 17th in goals conceded on the road in the last six games (11 goals), Crouch is almost a must play on most of my teams this afternoon. Roster Crouch with confidence, his price has actually gone DOWN every week since he started his goal scoring streak, and I’m not convinced that he will fail to score this week.
Other Forwards I Like: Harry Kane – Tottenham ($9,900), Diego Costa – Chelsea ($9,800), Alexis Sanchez – Arsenal ($9,600), Olivier Giroud – Arsenal ($9,300), Wilfried Bony – Manchester City ($7,900)