EPL DFS Targets: Saturday, August 15th
After a semi-successful first week of DFS EPL we turn our attentions to week 2, and much like last week, DraftKings is offering us several slates to sink our teeth into. We have the Friday-Saturday slate (which includes all the games Friday and Saturday), we also have a Saturday early slate (which includes the early Aston Villa vs Manchester United match), a Saturday late slate, which is where the big GPPs are, and which this article will focus on, and a Sunday-Monday slate, which will include three matches that probably will feature a lot of competition and will be interesting to watch as Soccer fans.
Before we move forward though, I wanted to take a moment to analyze the three newcomers to the EPL after watching them play once and try to predict where these teams will move forward. I’ll break them down team by team.
Norwich
They lost to Crystal Palace 3-1 at home, and are now headed to the road where they’ll play Sunderland who are coming off their own drubbing at the hands of Leicester City. Norwich showed middle of the pack potential despite the loss to Crystal Palace. They managed to create more chances (12-10) and take more shots (17-11) relative to their opponents but failed to finish these chances. Their starting lineup was unexpected as they didn’t start Redmond and Grabban who both came on later and managed impact the game positively for their sides. Redmond scored the Canaries’ sole goal and Grabban managed to have two chances created in just 24 total touches (15 of them in the final third.) Robbie Brady started at fullback and he was able to deliver 7 crosses, but he’s listed as a forward on the DK game which makes it very difficult to play him in anything but a GPP. It will be key to see whether Redmond and Grabban get the start this week versus a Sunderland team that will be likely battling to avoid relegation along with Norwich later in the season.
Watford
With the team not at full strength yet, Miguel Layun got a start in the attacking midfield which led to him being in the optimal position to score a goal for the newcomers. Also we had Odion Ighalo coming off the bench and scoring a goal with limited touches. But the real story here is Troy Deeney who didn’t manage much except for three shots but none of them resulted in a goal. He did manage an assist however, and along with 32 touches in the final third I expect that he will manage to get himself goals eventually as the sample size grows. I do expect Watford to be a fun team to watch as they settle on a starting XI that can maximize the opportunities and the talents of their players.
Bournemouth
They started the game with a 4-4-2 formation and transitioned to a 4-4-1-1 when Yann Kermorgant came on in the second half. Either formations saw Callum Wilson as the main attacker, and that can be evidenced by his touches in the final third (30 out of 41 total touches). The other key player for Bournemouth early in the season will be Matt Ritchie, who will be a crossing machine as the season moves on as Bournemouth will be more apt to spread the field and try to deliver crosses to find their tall forwards in the box for header opportunities. I think Bournemouth will prove over time to be a very good offensive team that is worth targeting for DFS purposes, and that may just come with experience and as the players get more comfortable with the EPL style of play.
Now that we’ve taken a look at the newcomer teams, here is a position by position breakdown of the players I will be targeting this weekend for DFS EPL
The Early Saturday Game
Everton Visits Southampton on Saturday early morning with lineups locking for that matchup at 7:45AM. Southampton are heavy home favorites and for good reason, Graziano Pelle has looked excellent and in good form to start the season, and with Dusan Tadic, Sadio Mane and Jay Rodriguez being good options as well. Look for a close tight match with just a goal or two being scored. If you choose to attack the Southampton defense, hoping that with changes in the back, they won’t repeat last seasons league leading defensive numbers, you can try to roster Kevin Mirallas or Romelu Lukaku as two Everton players who have the best shot to produce.
The Big Saturday Slate
I’ll go through this slate position by position as most people will be playing this one for the larger GPPs.
Goalkeepers
Lukasz Fabianski, Swansea City $4,800 With only five matchups in the main slate and with Swansea facing a Newcastle squad that is still figuring out their bearings, I expect that Fabianski might have the easiest route to a win this weekend. Tottenham also have a good matchup hosting Stoke, however, Stoke is a better team than Newcastle, so if you’re choosing one high priced goalkeeper, I would go with the Swansea man between the sticks.
Boaz Myhill, West Bromwich Albion, $4,000 If you want to go with a riskier play that is much cheaper, you need look no further than Boaz Myhill for that. WBA is visiting Watford in what will amount to be Watford’s first home matchup in the premier league this season. While WBA are slight underdogs, I think it might take a while for Watford to organize themselves and truly become an offensive threat as I mentioned above. They will get there eventually, but I believe that for the time being, the WBA team is a better one and Myhill should get a boost from playing behind the line of a Tony Pulis squad that is coming off a 3-0 loss to Manchester City and will look to right their ship going forward.
Other Goalkeepers to consider: Costel Pantilimon (Sunderland, $4,700), Hugo Lloris (Tottenham, $5,600), Adrian (West Ham, $4,800)
Defenders
Neil Taylor, Swansea City $3,600 – Swansea should have a strong matchup this week that finds them not having to do a whole lot of defending, which will give Neil Taylor a chance to move forward with the attack and assist using crosses and key passes that could lead to goals. Taylor had a good matchup against Chelsea last week and should look to improve on that going into this week’s matchup.
Adam Matthews, Sunderland $2,700 – Matthews is expected to start in place of Adam Johnson who picked up a shoulder injury and will be out for six to seven weeks. This could be a blow for a Sunderland squad, but Matthews is a talented young defender who has the skill to make some noise if given first team opportunities, which he might get in the coming weeks.
Carl Jenkinson, Aaron Cresswell, West Ham United $5,000 and $5,200 – These two defenders are very expensive but they should have a safe floor fantasy wise that could lead to helping your cash teams out if you choose to go with them. West Ham is facing the challenge of Leicester after the Foxes put up 4 goals last week, however, last season, this Leicester team was a very different team away from home and was more reserved. They have a new manager this year who may choose to be a bit more aggressive, however, I expect that City will hold tight at the back and the hammers will push forward in attack trying to break through which will lead for a lot of activity for Jenkinson and Cresswell on the wings delivering crosses.
Other Defenders to Consider: Danny Rose (Tottenham, $4,100), James Chester (West Brom, $2,600), Miguel Layun (Watford, $4,000)
Midfielders
Dimitri Payet, West Ham $6,700 – Payet is one of the newcomer talents in the EPL this season and is already off on a great start. Payet delivered the excellent free kick into the box that led to one of the hammers goals against Petr Cech and Arsenal last weekend, so look for him to provide more of that for his teammates. Also, Payet has an easier opponent this week that can prove to be beneficial as it puts him in a spot to take advantage against a Leicester squad that could try to open things up and give Payet some room to operate.
Andre Ayew, Swansea City $5,600 – He had a great debut last week against the defending champs with his new team. The Swans are at home now and are looking to continue their good start for the season with a win against a weak Newcastle squad. A lot of people will focus on Jonjo Shelvey as the play from the midfield for Swansea, but I believe there can be merit in fading Jonjo as he can be very inconsistent. Ayew and Gylfi Sigurdsson are both worth targeting in the midfield, especially if either of them plays the 10 spot or plays on the wing, then they both can be excellent options that can feed the supply to Bafetimbi Gomis (more on him later).
Christian Eriksen, Tottenham $8,400 – Tottenham are the biggest favorites on the board, and a lot of attention is going to be on Kane, which gives Eriksen the room to shine. Also, with how much attention Kane will get from DFS players, Eriksen may be an underowned option at the midfield as he set up the most opportunities for his team last week and had the most goal attempts to go along with the most touches in the final third. Eriksen is a great play and his price is much too cheap for what he is capable of doing as well as his role in this offense.
Other Midfielders to Consider: Gylfi Sigurdsson (Swansea, $7,500), Riyad Mahrez (Leicester, $7,500), Marc Albrighton (Leicester, $6,500), Georginio Wijnaldum (Newcastle, $5,800), Jermaine Lens (Sunderland, $5,500), Nathan Redmond (Norwich, $5,400)
Forwards
Jose Rondon, West Brom $3,000 – It’s criminal that Rondon is priced this low, and DraftKings has completely messed up the pricing on this play. Rondon is a quality world class Venezuelan Striker who scored 13 goals in 17 matches in the 2014/15 season with Zenit St. Petersburg in Russia. The only explanation for this discrepancy in the pricing is that either DK knows something that we don’t know about Rondon’s starting job, or it was an error that will likely be corrected soon. regardless, enjoy the savings and roster Rondon all you want as he’s in a great spot this week.
Bafetimbi Gomis, Swansea City $6,100 – The Swansea front man is the last Swansea player I’ll bring up (I’m counting five so far), but I do believe that Swansea will capitalize on their excellent performance last week and take it to Newcastle with a coordinated attack with Gomis at the head. Last week he showed excellent poise drawing a foul that resulted in a red card to Thibaut Courtois and then converting the penalty resulting from said foul. Gomis should grow this season as a fantasy prospect and I expect to see some consistency from him as we move forward this season.
Harry Kane, Tottenham $9,800 – At $9.8K Kane is cheaper than what his talent level should put him at. However, with his ownership level expected to be sky high and with his price being so low, I am not against fading him altogether. However, I’ll give you the obligatory numbers to let you make the decision. Kane is in a great spot and facing a Stoke squad that was strong at the back last season but could be vulnerable on the road. Kane faced a supply issue last week versus Manchester United and was having trouble getting the ball. That could be different this week, and if he is successful it will be because one of Nacer Chadli or Christian Eriksen managed to deliver some accurate passes or crosses for the Spurs striker to get a foot or a head on. He can be muted or he can score a hat-trick. Couple that with ownership level and fading Kane will be the ultimate GPP gamble that could pay off.
Other Forwards to Consider: Diafra Sakho (West Ham, $7,200), Troy Deeney (Watford, $5,200), Cameron Jerome (Norwich, $6,200), Rickie Lambert (West Brom, $5,200), Jermaine Defoe (Sunderland, $7,100)