EPL DFS Targets: Saturday, October 17th

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2015-10-19 01:53:45

We’re back from the international break with another set of games on DraftKings and an unfortunate slew of injuries to worry about. Plus, there are four teams that are playing in the Champions League midweek and a couple more playing in the Europa League, so there will be some definite squad rotation to accommodate for fatigue and to try to exploit matchups.

I’ll try today to give you the best information possible given the dearth of information we have on Friday. So, be sure to check on Saturday morning an hour before lock to see who actually gets to start and which players the various managers decide to trust in these ever important matchups.

Odds

Opponent Stats

Goalkeepers

Asmir Begovic, Chelsea $5,400 – With most of the matches being tough to figure out this week, I’m going to go safe with my goalkeeper selections this week. My top two keepers are Begovic and Hart, and I’ll consider them the 1A and 1B options, with Begovic taking top billing due to the cheaper price tag and the opponent being slightly more favorable than Hart’s. He’s going against Aston Villa, one of the few teams that are below Chelsea in the table. This is a perfect opportunity for Chelsea to control possession and to get back in form in preparation for their midweek Champions League bout.

Boaz Myhill, West Brom Albion $4,800 – If you wish to go with a slightly cheaper option, going with WBA’s keeper Myhill against Sunderland is a good option. While Sunderland changed managers in the break and brought in Sam Allardyce, don’t expect them to see changes overnight; any improvement will be gradual. I don’t know if this will turn Sunderland’s fortunes around, but until we start seeing what changes he brings about, I’ll keep targeting Sunderland as a team to exploit in my games.

Other Goalkeepers I Like: Joe Hart (Manchester City, $5,700), Artur Boruc (Bournemouth, $4,000)

Defenders

Craig Dawson, West Bromwich Albion $4,500 – In keeping with the general theme of targeting Sunderland, Dawson is in a great position to take some spots on some of my teams. His price is affordable, and with a week where the majority of the expensive options are all out due to injury (Kolarov, Ivanovic, Baines and Cresswell all either out or questionable), I’ll be focusing my attention on defenders in the $4,000 range. Dawson has the ability to cross, and he gets touches in the final third; with WBA expecting to win this matchup, he’s in a good spot this week.

César Azpilicueta, Chelsea $4,700 – With Ivanovic out, Azpilicueta may shift over to the right side and have Baba Rahman take over on the left side. This is still not clear, as Mourinho gave his usual cryptic responses when asked who would start in place of Ivanovic and listed a bunch of names, none of them Rahman, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts him anyway. In the meantime, Azpilicueta is a good play this week, as Chelsea will look to control possession and Azpilicueta will get opportunities in the opponent’s final third and has the ability to cross the ball and push forward. This is especially true if Loftus-Cheek starts at the double pivot next to Fabregas; if that’s the case, expect Azpilicueta to have some offensive freedom.

Bacary Sagna, Manchester City, $4,500 – A bonus third defender comes from Manchester City. With Kolarov sidelined, taking Sagna won’t hurt you, especially with City playing a Bournemouth squad that is missing Callum Wilson for the season and having to rely on relative newcomer Glen Murray. Sagna is a talented player and when playing a full match at home, he usually gets half his touches in the opponent’s final third, which leads to crosses, shots and chances created.

Other Defenders I Like: Baba Rahman (Chelsea, $2,700), Papa Soare (Crystal Palace, $3,900)

Midfielders

Kevin De Bruyne, Manchester City $8,000 – Without Aguero and Silva, De Bruyne becomes a must play in most of my teams. City should have a chance to win this match easily and that is due to the talents in the midfield with De Bruyne conducting the show this week and giving his teammates some good looks and trying to set up Wilfried Bony. In the two matches without David Silva earlier this season, De Bruyne managed two goals, and looking specifically at the West Ham match at home, he had 9 crosses, 4 shots, and 79 (out of 112) touches in the opponent’s final third. Expect similar numbers with a similar game playing out this weekend.

Eden Hazard, Chelsea $10,000 – With Aston Villa playing Chelsea this week, Hazard will look to justify his expensive price (though he doesn’t know about DraftKings’ price… probably). Still, I expect that he is aware that general expectations were very high for him this season and that he has not performed up to the expectations that have been set. This is a GPP play and I think that Hazard will be underowned, given the number of other players that are above $10,000 and the recent performances for Chelsea and Hazard. This could be a good week to see him get 20+ DK points.

Steven Davis, Southampton, $3,700 – Steven Davis started last time out for Southampton in the wing and did well in scoring a goal against Chelsea. He did take his first shots for Southampton that match, and while I don’t expect goals from him again, I do think he will be active for Southampton against a Leicester squad that does not have a single clean sheet this season yet. Also worth noting is that Davis has 17 chances created this season without a single assist to his name. That trend can’t continue forever and at his low bargain bin price, he’s a key play to take advantage of in your lineups.

Other Midfielders I Like: Raheem Sterling (Manchester City, $8,100), Mesut Ozil (Arsenal, $8,600), Dusan Tadic (Southampton, $9,700), James McClean (WBA, $3,200), Dimitri Payet (West Ham, $9,100), Juan Mata (Manchester United, $9,300), Jason Puncheon (Crystal Palace, $6,200)

Forwards

There are lots of excellent forward plays this week. Rather than try to narrow it down to two or three, I’ve given the forwards that I’m considering this week with a quick blurb on each one. The following are ranked in order of how likely I am to have them in my rosters.

Alexis Sanchez, Arsenal $11,600 – He’s scored nine goals and has two assists in his last five matches in all competitions (Arsenal and Chile), so he’s in spectacular form. The only risk is his returning late from South America after international duty.

Diego Costa, Chelsea $9,000 – He’s coming off his three-match ban, and he’s heard some negative comments coming from every direction. This is his first chance to come back to his club side and he’ll be looking to prove his worth and skills. I’m nervous about him acting a fool again, but I think he’s talented enough and will overcome all that. Costa has a great chance at scoring a goal this week.

Jose Rondon, West Brom $5,500- West Brom are a favorite of mine this week as they face Sunderland, and like I mentioned earlier, they have not yet had a chance to play with Big Sam and will take a while to adjust to his style; expect some hiccups early on. Rondon is a good play, but he has a low floor as he can disappear sometimes. For his price though, you’re not asking for too much, and playing at home he’ll have a chance to take a few shots.

Graziano Pelle, Southampton $9,400/Sadio Mane, Southampton $9,100 – The Southampton duo is in a good spot this week playing against Leicester, who, as mentioned earlier haven’t held a clean sheet at all this season. Pelle in particular has looked in tremendous form and has three goals and three assists for Southampton in their last three matches.

Wilfried Bony, Manchester City $6,500 – Without Aguero, look for Bony to lead the line for Manchester City. He’ll have to be sharp in order to take advantage of the opportunities that De Bruyne and Sterling will present to him. His price is real cheap and you can trust him to at least get a few shots.

Anthony Martial, Manchester United $8,700 – Manchester United play a very slow methodical match and that limits Martial’s floor a little, as he won’t get a bunch of shots by design, even if United control possession greater than 60%. Martial is a good play though, as he is capable of scoring goals or getting off shots in tough positions.

Jamie Vardy, Leicester $9,500 – It’s tough to ignore Leicester altogether, and since I didn’t mention Mahrez (returning from international duty in Africa, and skipped by Ranieri last time out) and ignored the full backs (inconsistent), I do believe that Leicester have a chance at some goals. Goals can come from anywhere, but Vardy is the line leader here and he can score goals in any situation. His price is one of the toughest aspects of rostering him, however.