EPL Grind Down: Gameweek 2
The Grind Down will give you an in depth analysis into the week’s EPL schedule.
This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit and which matchups to take advantage of. And while matchups are a huge factor in Daily Fantasy Soccer, there are plenty of other factors to consider, such as team form, formation, salaries and home/away.
This analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Goals aren’t always easy to predict, but following the trends and making the right choices can lead you to success and will win you money over time.
Burnley vs Liverpool
| Burnley | Liverpool | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 6.73 | 1.564 | ||||||||||
| Last 6: L | Last 6: W | ||||||||||
| 0-0-1 | 1-0-0 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | SoT A/Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | SoT A/Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.90 | 3.90 | 14.30 | 0.00 | 18.30 | 0.00 | 16.55 | 5.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.55 | 0.00 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Andre Gray, Sam Vokes | Dean Marney, Johann-Berg Gudmundsson | Johann-Berg Gudmundsson, Steven Defour | Milner, Benteke, Henderson, Sturridge, Coutinho, Moreno | Philippe Coutinho | Jordan Henderson, Philippe Coutinho | ||||||
These two teams are coming off different weeks. Burnley lost their season opener to Swansea in their return to the Premier League last weekend, while Liverpool managed to win a 4-3 thriller against Arsenal last Sunday. This match is expected to be dominated by Liverpool, as evidenced by the 6.73-to-1 odds for Burnley to win this matchup. Last season in the Championship, Burnley allowed fewer shots on their goal at home than they did on the road. And while the opponent is much different, you can expect this match to be tight with Liverpool on the road. Liverpool will look to build on their display against Arsenal as they look to take advantage of a Burnley squad that will be battling at the bottom of the table by end of the season. Expect Liverpool to dominate possession and to get the most chances.
Burnley Breakdown
Burnley look to be a team that will be limited in possession this season, and thus in fantasy output. They do boast two or three players that will be mainstays for potential fantasy value. Andre Gray and to a lesser extent Sam Vokes pose threats in various categories for DFS purposes. However, with a new season it’s hard to really know the true value of a player in a fantasy format without some stats to back it up. What we do know is that Swansea controlled possession last weekend against this same team, the same Swansea side that finished in the bottom quarter of the premier league in total possession last season. This leads me to believe that Burnley this week might prove to be an easy fade.
Burnley Top Plays
None
Burnley Secondary Plays
Tom Heaton, Goalkeeper $4,100 – He’s really cheap and this Burnley team conceded a single goal last weekend against a very weak Swansea side, so who knows how bad they’ll do against Liverpool. However, there is reason to be optimistic that Heaton could deliver in goal this week. They’re playing in their home opener, and while Heaton conceded a goal last weekend, he did manage to make seven saves which puts him in a great spot for your fantasy squad. In terms of goalkeepers, he was one of the top scoring ones on the day. As we all know, a goalkeeper’s value lies in his ability to make saves and sometimes, playing for a weak team makes you more valuable. I think this is a season that we find ourselves rostering Heaton more often than we would roster a guy like Mignolet because of his save opportunities. That said, Heaton is strictly a GPP play, and putting him on your cash teams does pose some risk since he will likely face close to 5 shots and if he fails to make saves, that means those would be goals.
Matthew Lowton, Defender $3,600 – If you want a middle of the road defender, look no further than Matthew Lowton for Burnley. Priced at a decent range, he managed to deliver five crosses last weekend. If Burnley somehow manage to come out of this matchup unscathed and with a clean sheet, then Lowton gets more value. If they concede early, I can see him being part of an attack that starts on the wings and from the full backs.
Andre Gray, Forward $7,400 – I don’t think that Burnley will threaten much, but with the match being at home, I can see Burnley feeding off the crowd frenzy early on and scoring a goal through a fast break. Gray has tremendous pace and is an excellent player that should score some goals this season (I’m predicting 15 goals by the way), I think if Burnley were to score, it could be through Andre Gray.
Liverpool Breakdown
Jurgen Klopp began his second season as Liverpool coach in dramatic fashion with a 4-3 win over Arsenal away from home. Things get easier this week, even though Liverpool still don’t get to play at home, they take a visit to Burnley looking for their second win in as many matches this season. Liverpool look to be suffering from a number of injuries already early this season. Sadio Mane had a shoulder sprain in practice and is a late fitness test. Philippe Coutinho and Daniel Sturridge suffered some knocks last week, but they’re both expected to be available, so I wouldn’t be worried about rostering them if they start. Last weekend, the team played with Firmino as a false nine and Sturridge out. This week, I can see them switching to a more traditional lineup late in the matchwith Sturridge back and Firmino sliding in the right flank to take the spot of Sadio Mane, but I fully expect Firmino to start again in his false 9 spot. Liverpool will be looking to put pressure on the Clarets on their home turf trying to come away with a win.
Liverpool Top Plays
Philippe Coutinho, Midfielder $7,400 – His price will be a bit prohibitive this week, but Coutinho has plenty going for him. He loves to take shots on a team that takes a lot of shots. He’s going against a team that conceded plenty of shots last week, especially from outside the box, Burnley conceded six attempts from outside the box last match (again, we only have a sample size of one). This does play nicely for Coutinho to continue his hot start to the season after he scored twice for Liverpool against Arsenal last weekend. Be weary though, as Liverpool have been known for uneven performances in the last two seasons where they look like world beaters against the top teams, then struggle to put away minnows. This could happen again this weekend, but I believe that Jurgen Klopp will figure out a solution to that dilemma sooner rather than later.
Roberto Firmino, Midfield/Forward $7,200 – Sturridge should be returning this week, but with his status as a starter unknown, I’m reluctant to list him as an elite play. Instead, if he doesn’t start, then this puts Firmino as the defacto striker and while that is not the best position for him, he does end up taking a lot of shots in that position (four last week). FIrmino could also benefit from the absence of Mane as he could slide to the right flank and allow Coutinho or any sub to jump into the center forward spot. There is upside in Firmino, but the floor is very slim and I would avoid him for cash games unless Sturridge does get the start and Firmino starts on the wing.
Liverpool Secondary Plays
Jordan Henderson, Midfield $4,800 – If you didn’t watch the Arsenal-Liverpool match you missed an interesting side note about Jordan Henderson. He took the majority of the corners for Liverpool, and while he didn’t cross them, this could be attributed to the height (and experience) of Arsenal Defenders. This week, going against Burnley, Liverpool may be tempted to try their luck in the air. If Henderson continue to take corners I can see him delivering more than 5 crosses into the box. This could lead to a score close to 10 points or more if he snags an assist on one of those crosses.
Swansea vs Hull
| Swansea | Hull | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 1.813 | 5.14 | ||||||||||
| Last 6: W | Last 6: W | ||||||||||
| 1-0-0 | 1-0-0 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | SoT A/Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | SoT A/Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.61 | 3.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 19.11 | 0.00 | 16.00 | 5.00 | 10.60 | 0.00 | 24.40 | 0.00 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Sigurdsson | Sigurdsson | Sigurdsson, Routledge, Stephen Kingsley | Hernandez, Snodgrass | Snodgrass | Snodgrass, Huddlestone | ||||||
These two teams were winners last weekend with Swansea winning on the road against newly promoted Burnley, and this week they get another new team to the premier league in Hull. Hull started their return to the top flight by beating the defending champions in what was the biggest surprise of the weekend. Hull are undergoing a tumultuous time as their ownership and the fans have clashed. This should be an even matchup similar to how Burnley-Swansea turned out with Swansea likely edging out their opponent.
Swansea Breakdown
Swansea have Gylfi Sigurdsson back in action, he returned with 30 minutes to go last match and should be active again this weekend. Swansea plays a typical 4-2-3-1 formation that pushes forward into a 4-3-3 with Sigurdsson and Routledge or Barrow supporting off the wings. Swansea is still without Neil Taylor (who played in the league cup fixture on Tuesday), so Stephen Kingsley should get the start again at full back.
Swansea Top Plays
Gylfi Sigurdsson, Midfielder $8,700 – Anytime he’s starting he’s in play for DFS purposes, especially at home. Siggy is the top penalty kick taker for the Swans, and he’s the motor of the Swansea offense. Once He was subbed on last match, the game really opened up and resulted in 15 shots from both sides (8 of them for Swansea, 7 for Burnley) Six of Swansea’s 8 shots came from inside the box, and 3 of them came off the food of Fernando Llorente (more on him later). Sigurdsson also took a share of the set pieces from outside the box that resulted in a shot on target. His price tag is very high, but he should be a lock for double digit fantasy points and potentially reach at least 20 points if he can manage a goal or a couple of assists.
Modou Barrow, Midfielder/Forward $5,000 – I would prefer if Jefferson Montero started, but he came off the bench last weekend, and I suspect Swansea won’t be changing that. But Barrow was very effective in his time on the pitch last time out recording 6 crosses and 2 shots in just 64 minutes. That puts him at a cross every 10 minutes, and a shot every 30. Will this production continue? The chances are high that they do given the opponent and that Swansea are playing at home. Hull will be a team that plays strong at home and weak on the road this season and the cracks in the armor will be appearing soon. Maybe even this week. If Barrow doesn’t start, going down to Montero for just $4,000 is almost a must play.
Swansea Secondary Plays
Fernando Llorente, Forward $7,000 – Llorente used to be a prolific scorer, but he’s up there in age right now and will not be an automatic goal scorer week in and week out. However, there will be weeks when his opportunities will be enhanced, starting with this week. I foresee him excelling against weaker teams and with Sigurdsson in the match. Llorente will put the pressure on Hull and is in an excellent opportunity to nab his first goal of the season.
Stephen Kingsley, Defender $3,100 – He had a great start to the season with 12 fantasy points last week against Burnley. He managed 2 shots, 3 tackles and 2 interceptions. As he continues to start he should be expected to get 5-10 fantasy points as the clean sheet isn’t always certain, but Kingsley makes for a great defensive option.
Hull Breakdown
The surprise of last week look to keep the ball rolling as they look to take on Swansea on the road. They’ll likely play a 4-1-4-1 formation with Abel Hernandez as the front man. They have a multitude of injuries that have kept their back field in dire need of reinforcements. And given their lack of summer signings, they’ll likely be struggling all season to put together consistent results. There are a few standouts though.
Hull Top Plays
Robert Snodgrass, Midfield $6,300 – He was all over the place last weekend against Leicester. Hull played the keep away game perfectly against Leicester and will look to try to replicate that feat this week. The key to Snodgrass’s success last week was the counter attack where he partnered up with Abel Hernandez. The counter led to consistent pressure on the back of Leicester and the defensive midfielders. The same should apply this week with Snodgrass the potential for another score is there, albeit diminished. He should still be good for some crosses and other periphery statistics.
Hull Secondary Plays
Eldin Jakupovic, Goalkeeper $4,300 – Going cheap at keeper is a preferred method to maximize your points from your forward and midfield spots. Saving $1000 in salary at goalkeeper can help you upgrade your midfielder to a more reliable option. The best way to get the cheap goalkeeper is to target the home underdog (like Jakupovic last weekend) This weekend, the Hull keeper isn’t in the best spot, but he’s cheap enough and you can expect him to face some shots that could potentially lead to a few more saves than normal. He’s a GPP option only.
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace
| Tottenham | Crystal Palace | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 1.478 | 7.97 | ||||||||||
| Last 6: D | Last 6: L | ||||||||||
| 0-1-0 | 0-0-1 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | SoT A/Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | SoT A/Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.32 | 6.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 19.42 | 0.00 | 12.34 | 3.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 25.50 | 0.00 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Kane, Chadli | Eriksen, Lamela, Kane, Walker | Eriksen, Lamela | Cabaye, Gayle, Wickham | Cabaye, Puncheon, Jedinak | Cabaye, Puncheon, Sako, Ledley | ||||||
After two boring matches, these two teams come into this week with a single point between them with Tottenham grabbing a point from Everton and Palace losing to West Brom on their home turf. There are some concerns over the fitness and health of several of Palace players. Moreover, there is enough uncertainty that it will be hard to predict the starting XI for the visiting London club. Tottenham however have a chance to earn their first win of the season against a Crystal Palace team in flux that is playing on the road.
Tottenham Breakdown
The Spurs aren’t without their own fitness issues as they lost Hugo Lloris last week to a hamstring strain. Pochettino will be making some decisions if he wants to reward Vincent Janssen with a start after an impressive showing in the opening weekend matchup. The team is still expected to push the offensive pace and try to score some goals, and they’ll continue to be a fantasy option every week they take the field.
Tottenham Top Plays
Christian Eriksen, Midfielder, $9,200 – He’s an elite talent and will be looking to make up for his performance last weekend which garnered only 11 fantasy points. I can see him getting more touches to try to leave a mark on the game. He was instrumental to several offensive bouts for Tottenham and I believe he will have a hand this week in any goals scored by Tottenham.
Danny Rose, Defender, $5,700 – If you’re going to spend up on a defender because of prudent roster building in other positions then my favorite expensive defender is Danny Rose. Rose didn’t do much last weekend to justify his high price tag, but he did have 119 touches last time out (almost 17% of the total touches for Tottenham) on the road in a tougher matchup against Everton. This week he should find himself more opportunities to initiate the offense against a Crystal Palace team that allowed 21 crosses last weekend and 8 chances from the wings.
Tottenham Secondary Plays
Vincent Janssen, Forward $6,900 – If he gets the start for Tottenham he’ll be looking to cement his place in the starting XI and would be trying to prove that he’s worthy of a change in formation just to incorporate him. This is a good week for Pochettino to alter things as this matchup is easier than the one in the upcoming week against Liverpool. Janssen will get another opportunity this week, and if he gets it to start the match I’ll be looking for him to score a goal, or come close a few times.
Crystal Palace Breakdown
With the departure of Bolasie and with questions to Sako, Tomkins, Soare, Campbell, along with Hennessey and Cabaye still recovering from international duties, this team is hard to pinpoint at the moment. The only certainties we know right now are that Wickham, Townsend, Ward and Zaha should get starts. We could also see Cabaye and Soare starting despite not being 100%, this team will likely play with an eye on defense and to try to hold the prolific Spurs offense and to keep them from executing their preferred style.
Crystal Palace Top Plays
Andros Townsend, Midfielder $6,700 – Townsend started his season with Crystal Palace where he left off with Newcastle last season. The new addition didn’t waste time cementing his importance as a fantasy option with 9 crosses and six shots against West Brom last weekend. He also contributed on the defensive end with 5 tackles and 3 interceptions. I don’t know if Townsend will be able to contribute the same level of offensive production against a better Tottenham squad, but he will be a very viable option for just $6,700, a price that is sure to go up in the next few weeks.
Crystal Palace Secondary Plays
Connor Wickham, Forward $5,300 – Starting at forward for Palace this week should be Wickham who will be looking to open his scoring account against the Spurs on the road. With the team hurting for some offensive production, Wickham could try to provide that, however, while his upside is a goal, his floor is very low as he could be blanked quite easily in a matchup and end up being substituted.