EPL Grind Down: Gameweek 6
With week 6 coming up we have a few things to take into account as the season progresses. Now is the time of year that EPL teams start their increasingly heavy portion of the schedule. Most teams are still playing in midweek cup ties and that is resulting in squad rotation, fatigue and injuries. So we’ll have to be conscious of injuries prior to building our teams.
This article is an evolving piece, and right now we have the following stats for each team: Shots per game, Shots on Target per game, Shots Against per game, Shots Against from inside the box per game, crosses per game, and crosses against per game. In addition the table will include the odds for the team to win as well as the record of the team over the last 6 matches as well as the overall record on the season. If you’d like to see any changes or additions to this content please feel free to leave me a message on here or contact me on twitter.
This analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Goals aren’t always easy to predict, but following the trends and making the right choices can lead you to success and will win you money over time.
Bournemouth vs Everton
| Bournemouth | Everton | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 258 | 118 | ||||||||||
| LLDWL | DWWWW | ||||||||||
| 1-1-3 | 4-1-0 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.00 | 3.60 | 16.60 | 10.00 | 17.80 | 20.80 | 15.40 | 7.00 | 10.20 | 5.00 | 18.20 | 17.40 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Wilson, Daniels, Stanislas | Ibe, Arter, Gradel | King, Fraser, Gradel, Stanislas, Daniels | Baines, Barkley, Mirallas | Barkley, Mirallas, Baines, Deulofeu | Mirallas, Baines, Barkley, Deulofeu | ||||||
Bournemouth bowed out of the EFL Cup this week with an extra time loss to Preston and Everton lost out as well on the same day with a defeat at the hands of Norwich. Both clubs opted to rest some of their players, and the decision cost them in the Cup. Now their attentions turn to a matchup in the Premier League. Everton are sitting pretty in 2nd place in the table just 2 points behind City, while Bournemouth are struggling at the moment with just 1 win in five matches. The Cherries have conceded 9 goals so far and only managed 3, meanwhile Everton have scored 10 goals and conceded just 3. With this matchup at Dean Court, it makes for an intriguing affair as it opens up the possibility for the home team to turn things around.
Bournemouth Top Plays
None
Bournemouth Secondary Plays
Artur Boruc, Goalkeeper, $4,500 – I’ll start off this week’s first player pick with a risky one. At home, all goalkeepers are in play, and in DFS you want to roster the cheapest goalkeeper possible who will give you the most points. Boruc is an underdog this week, and if he gets the expected work load there will be plenty of save opportunities with Everton coming to visit. Of course, this pick comes with some risk as Everton have been a different team under the management of Koeman and have scored goals in every game. Not many people will venture to take a keeper going against Lukaku when he’s on a hot streak, but this is why this is a GPP tailored play.
Junior Stanislas, Midfielder, $6,000 – In his last home match against West Brom, Stanislas was on corners and finished with 12 points with 4 shots (3 on target), 5 crosses, and a tackle won. He had a good run last season when he was getting consistent minutes and he’s building up to that right now after two matches with 74 minutes in each one. He’s a viable option to consider for GPPs but I wouldn’t put too much stock in his potential to perform.
Jordan Ibe, Midfielder/Forward, $4,700 – One player that you might consider for GPPs is Jordan Ibe. He’s looked very active in the Cherries offense and while he hasn’t scored yet this season, he is very capable of scoring as the majority of his touches end up in the opponents final third and the chances should be there against an Everton squad that likes to push forward giving Bournemouth a chance to take advantage of open space on the counter.
Everton Top Plays
Kevin Mirallas, Midfielder/Forward, $6,800 – Mirallas has the makings of a cash game play given his corner kick taking, and general attacking mentality. Mirallas comes into this matchup with a team that is looking to continue with their solid start in the Premier League and might need Mirallas’ solid performances to make it happen. Moreover, if you roster Lukaku, then you might want to consider Mirallas as a combination play in order to get the likely goal/assist combo (s) if they happen.
Everton Secondary Plays
Romelu Lukaku, Forward, $8,800 – Lukaku comes into this match with 6 goals in his last three matches on 14 shots. He has a red Q next to his name so he is likely to be underowned, especially with people going to Aguero and Costa or spending up in the midfield to fit KDB (more on them later). I for one will have some exposure to Lukaku as he has the ability to score multiple goals against any opponent. He will take plenty of shots and he will be very active using his big frame to wreck havoc on the opposing defenses.
Yannick Bolasie, Midfielder/Forward, $7,600 – Everton love playing the ball out wide if they can’t get a direct line to the goal. Bolasie has been their “in-game” crosser as he has 19 crosses over his last two matches. He’s only taken 7 shots so far and hasn’t scored any goals yet, but his time will come. He is more likely to deliver the assisted shot than he is the shot, but eventually he’ll place one in the right spot and one of Everton’s other forwards will finish it in the back of the net. He’s priced higher than I would like for his floor, but he’s in a solid GPP price range that might keep his ownership in the single digits.
Liverpool vs Hull
| Liverpool | Hull | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| -413 | 1336 | ||||||||||
| WLDWW | WWLDL | ||||||||||
| 3-1-1 | 2-1-2 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.00 | 6.20 | 9.40 | 5.80 | 14.40 | 17.60 | 10.20 | 3.20 | 21.40 | 11.00 | 14.20 | 24.40 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Milner, Benteke, Henderson, Sturridge, Coutinho, Moreno | Philippe Coutinho, Lallana | Milner, Lallana, Coutinho, Henderson | Hernandez, Snodgrass | Snodgrass | Snodgrass, Huddlestone | ||||||
Liverpool are coming off some massive results with their weeks 4 and 5 producing wins against the last two Premier League champions, they are likely the hottest team around. They play at home in this match and face a Hull team that will undoubtedly have lots of trouble dealing with the parade of attackers that Liverpool will throw at them. Hull aren’t going to score much, as they don’t have the talent outside of a few players like Robert Snodgrass who can propel them to a goal or two, but I expect this one to be total domination by the Anfield side.
Liverpool Top Plays
James Milner, Defender, $6,600 – I was on the fence about this one for a long time. My initial thought when I saw the price and position was to say to “fade Milner.” Then, after about 3-4 days of considering it, I realized that it might not be the smartest thing to do. Here are the facts. Milner has been taking corners for Liverpool. Milner is normally listed as a midfielder, and thus, is involved in the offense like a midfielder. If a midfielder who’s involved in one of the stronger offenses is listed at just $6,600, I would consider him a must play because of the salary savings you can produce. So how do you fit him in your lineup? I’m going to include him in the flex spot where appropriate or try to find a $3-4K midfielder (we’ll look together) to replace the value defender we are foregoing by rostering Milner this week.
Liverpool Secondary Plays
Sadio Mane, Midfielder, $7,500 – It’s hard to pinpoint which of the Liverpool front 6 will deliver some offensive results. Only one player can be credited with a goal, and only one player can shoot the ball at a time. Mane is my pick this week for one of the more likely choices to score a goal. He’s been active in the offense and two weeks ago had a goal and an assist as Liverpool hung 4 goals on the defending champs. You can also consider taking a look at Jordan Henderson at a cheap price of just $4,600 he carries the potential and upside. Moreover, Klopp has been very happy with his performances so you know he will get the chance to prove himself again this week.
Hull Top Plays
None
Hull Secondary Plays
Robert Snodgrass, Midfielder, $6,500 – If anybody is going to disrupt the Liverpool clean sheet, it will be at the feet of Robert Snodgrass. Snodgrass has been great so far this year with the exception of a few matches where he hasn’t performed as expected. But in his last 2 EPL games he pulled in goals and managed to score an average of 24.5 DK points, so don’t hesitate to take a shot on Snodgrass if your lineup can fit him in.
Middlesbrough vs Tottenham
| Middlesbrough | Tottenham | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 306 | 105 | ||||||||||
| DWDLL | DWDWW | ||||||||||
| 1-2-2 | 3-2-0 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.20 | 2.20 | 13.40 | 8.40 | 19.80 | 20.80 | 19.00 | 6.00 | 11.40 | 6.80 | 21.40 | 16.20 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Ramirez, Downing | Ramirez, Downing | Downing, Ramirez, Friend | Kane, Chadli | Eriksen, Lamela, Kane, Walker | Eriksen, Lamela | ||||||
This will be an interesting matchup as Middlesbrough have been known for their defensive game plans ever since they were in the Championship last season. However, they haven’t been able to keep the goals out. Moreover, they only allow about 10-15 shots a game so they aren’t very porous on defense. And what compounds matters worse, is they don’t create their own shots either which makes it very difficult to consider many players from that team. On the other side, Tottenham will be without Harry Kane and as such, will look for Vincent Janssen to lead the line. There are some value plays to take advantage of here from the Spurs, but are there any real options to consider for Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough Top Plays
None
Middlesbrough Secondary Plays
Stewart Downing, Midfielder, $6,400 – Playing at home, Middlesbrough will have their fair share of possession and Downing should be the major beneficiary of some of that, with him being a focal point of their offense. Tottenham’s defense isn’t as stout as it was last season and the team has dipped their performances slightly which makes taking the opposing top crossing player worth it. Downing did have a massive match two weeks ago against Crystal Palace. His price is still in the middle of the pack and thus he’s more affordable than his potential would have you believe.
Tottenham Top Plays
Son Hueng-Min, Midfielder/Forward, $5,900 – He will be heavily owned because of his recent performances, and if you’re the type to build your cash lineup using herd mentality then he will be the first place you start your cash games. Last week he took corners (without Lamela and Eriksen in the lineup) and if they miss out again, then he’s a staple in my own cash lineup. If given the opportunity he will get shots, crosses, and has shown his ability to elevate his performances without Kane. Still though, he’s a risky prospect, and I wouldn’t use him if he starts alongside Lamela and Eriksen.
Tottenham Secondary Plays
Vincent Janssen, Forward, $8,100 – He’s finally getting the start without the pressure of performance. He managed to score his first goal for his new club in the midweek cup fixture and will look to continue that streak. He’s a natural scorer as evidenced by his 23 goals in the Dutch League last season. He’s still priced very high considering how little he’s done so far this season, but that makes him an excellent GPP play if you’re playing multiple lineups and want exposure to the Tottenham offense.
Stoke vs West Brom
| Stoke | West Brom | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 133 | 245 | ||||||||||
| DLLLL | WLDLW | ||||||||||
| 0-1-4 | 2-1-2 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.00 | 2.20 | 15.80 | 10.20 | 20.80 | 21.00 | 11.40 | 3.40 | 13.80 | 9.00 | 17.80 | 22.60 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Bojan, Arnautovic, Adam, Walters | Adam, Shaqiri, Arnautovic, Ireland | Bojan, Shaqiri, Adam, Affelay, Ireland, Arnautovic. | Berahino, Rondon, Gardner | Gardner, Rondon, McClean | Brunt, Gardner, McClean, Berahino | ||||||
A team that can’t stop anybody hosting a team that suddenly can’t stop scoring. This is the tale of the match. There are two ways things can go here, either each team continues it’s trend that we’ve seen in recent weeks and West Brom puts up a number of goals on the host team, or, the teams adjust and Stoke plays better defense than they have been. Mark Hughes is under a lot of pressure to deliver results for this Stoke side, especially after losing to Hull in the EFL Cup midweek while featuring a mostly full side. West Brom are a side that have suddenly found their offensive mojo which is unlike a Tony Pulis team. It will help that the side had the midweek off, so they’ll be better rested than their counterparts, it does hurt them playing on the road at Stoke, though not as much as it would when the weather gets cold. Nevertheless, Stoke did allow 13 goals in their last four matches in the EPL and there is little to suggest that they will suddenly revert back to a defensively sound team.
Stoke Top Plays
Xherdan Shaqiri, Midfielder, $7,000 – If he’s back this week, corners, shots and crosses will be all his as he can transform this underachieving side back into their old self from last season. Shaq will immediately resume taking corners and be the main focus of the teams offense when they try to set up plays. He also gets the honor of the free kicks and can score from one of those. At the price tag of just $7K, Shaqiri makes for a great play if he gets the start and will be absolutely worth it.
Stoke Secondary Plays
Glen Johnson, Defender, $3,600 – Johnson will likely be my second defender on my cash team as he’s got double digit upside and will secure himself at least 5-7 points on peripherals alone. For a cheap price at defender, he’s going to make it into the majority of my lineups regardless of format. Why is he a secondary play? I don’t expect him to score any goals or even assists, and the double digit outcome is less likely than a single digit outcome, but he is reliable and cheap enough to give my teams a chance to put the other players I want on there.
Wilfried Bony, Forward, $7,700 – Bony arrived to Stoke earlier this month on a season long loan from Manchester City, and while he hasn’t scored any goals for the squad yet, he’s certainly been close with 7 shots so far in just two matches. Bony carries the potential for multiple goal upside and can deliver on that potential against any opponent. His chances greatly improve with the return of Shaqiri as well as he’ll depend on the supply from the midfield as he has trouble creating opportunities for himself.
West Brom Top Plays
Nacer Chadli, Midfielder/Forward, $5,700 – Chadli came loose last week with a great performance with 2 goals, and 2 assists. Of course, he was rewarded for his efforts by DraftKings by increasing his price by a whopping $300. So really, his price still remains too low for us to fade him. They’re facing a team that has allowed plenty of goals and makes defense look like rocket surgery, Chadli should find his way around this squad and makes for an almost automatic play in my cash games.
Matt Phillips, Midfielder, $5,000 – If you decide to dip a little from Chadli down to another sure option, then Matt Phillips might be your choice. He’s been taking open play crosses as well as corners for Tony Pulis’ team. Phillips has averaged close to 6 crosses a game this season and is involved with this team’s offensive production.
West Brom Secondary Plays
Brendan Galloway, Defender, $3,900 – As defensive players go, Galloway might be one of the cheaper full backs that get the start this week, and as such, he’s earned a place in my heart and on my squad. Look for Galloway to get anywhere between 5 and 10 fantasy points.
Solomon Rondon, Forward, $6,700 – In the middle of the pack pricing we have Solomon Rondon with his $6,700 price tag and his goal scoring potential. Rondon also has the added benefit of taking penalties as well as free kicks for WBA. He will likely go overlooked as a good number of players will choose to spend up at forward and not even consider this range.