EPL Grind Down: Gameweek 9
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It’s another week of Daily Fantasy Soccer! If you’ve followed along, you know that we’ve had one of our busier weeks in soccer. First we announced our brand new Soccer Premium product here in the Daily Fantasy Marketplace. In case you don’t want to click through, here’s the summary. Each and every week I’ll give you my weekly projections for EPL, these projections will cover teams, goalkeepers, defenders, midfielders and forwards. I’ll also offer a special article specifically for subscribers that gives a player spotlight for each position. I’ll usually update that article about three times a week. This week it covered the Tuesday and Wednesday Champions League slates as well as the EPL slate for Saturday. In addition to that, each week there is an exclusive Strategy article written specifically to help you understand the strategy portion that goes into building soccer lineups. This week I covered selecting goalkeepers and the general strategy that goes into figuring out which goalkeeper to trust in your lineups. And if all this wasn’t enough, you also get access to the Soccer premium chat room where I’ll be hanging out off and on throughout the week answering questions and generally talking soccer. This will come in handy specifically Saturday mornings when we’re getting the lineups and you have some last minute lineup building questions.
If this isn’t enough, then you should be really excited that FanDuel announced Daily Fantasy EPL coming to their site starting next week. I’m hoping that when they do bring it, they’ll bring up some big prize pools and that can help draw the interest to soccer DFS. In the meantime, we have a fun slate here this weekend on DraftKings, so let’s check it out. And as always, feel free to reach out to me on twitter and ask any questions or comments.
Good Luck!
Bournemouth vs Tottenham
| Bournemouth | Tottenham | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 300 | 100 | ||||||||||
| D W L W D W | D W W W W D | ||||||||||
| 3-2-3 | 5-3-0 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.38 | 4.00 | 15.50 | 8.63 | 16.88 | 22.38 | 18.38 | 6.25 | 10.50 | 6.50 | 20.13 | 15.50 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Wilson, Daniels, Stanislas | Ibe, Arter, Gradel | King, Fraser, Gradel, Stanislas, Daniels | Kane, Chadli | Eriksen, Lamela, Kane, Walker | Eriksen, Lamela | ||||||
Bournemouth absolutely destroyed Hull last week and are riding a high note with 11 points in their last six after losing their first two matches. The team is currently sitting in 11th place and looking for ways to keep climbing up the table. Their first task after the dismantling of Hull is a tough one. They’re going to go up against Tottenham who are coming off a tough matchup against Bayer Leverkusen. Tottenham are a team that likes to high press the midfield meaning they’ll put the pressure on the midfielders and keep them on their heels. They like to employ quick passes that open up the field and create holes for the midfielders to roam and take shots. There are a few plays to consider in this match and if you are playing the all day slate then it’s worth taking a shot on a player or two from this squad.
Bournemouth Top Plays
None
Bournemouth Secondary Plays
Junior Stanislas, Midfielder, $7,200 – The idea of Stanislas is intriguing. If Bournemouth were to break out of the Spurs press then they would do so with some adept ball handling and skill. The Cherries would do well to watch the game tape of the Spurs midweek match with Leverkusen as both teams are very good at pressing the midfield, and what you saw was a clinic on how to break out of the press. Movement without the ball is key, and Stanislas is one of the hardest working players on his club with touches all over the place, he could be the key piece that breaks the Spurs defense.
Artur Boruc, Goalkeeper, $4,200 – Boruc will probably face a decent amount of shots. My projection model has Tottenham taking 31 shots with 10 of them on target. Boruc is one of the better keepers in regards to save percentage allowing an average of 30% of SOT to enter the goal. The projection model has Boruc as the highest scoring goalkeeper with 12.6 fantasy points. This projects conceding 2.7 goals and making 8 saves. Of course, these numbers are highly volatile and may not reflect as accurately, but they will give a good idea for how busy Boruc should be.
Tottenham Top Plays
Christian Eriksen, Midfielder, $9,300 – Eriksen enters this match with 0 goals scored in the Premier League so far. Despite taking the most shots on the team (24 total shots), he’s taken 17 of them from outside the box with only 7 in the penalty area. Eriksen is a specialist in the long shots, and he’s not afraid to let one loose. He’s facing a tough keeper this week so he may not get his goal, but one would think that eventually one of these shots will fall.
Dele Alli, Midfielder, $8,700 – Alli is the second highest shot taker in terms of volume on this team. He does have three goals to show for it though and thus makes for an interesting play. He’s priced slightly higher than Son who’s another good option and likely to be highly owned. Alli is unique in his ability to dribble down the field and create chances for his teammates, the general style of Tottenham depends on his style for success. There is a good chance that Alli is part of whatever scoring that Tottenham manage to accomplish this week against the Cherries.
Tottenham Secondary Plays
None
Arsenal vs Middlesbrough
| Arsenal | Middlesbrough | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| -365 | 1154 | ||||||||||
| W W W W W W | D L L L D L | ||||||||||
| 6-1-1 | 1-3-4 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.13 | 5.13 | 10.88 | 6.75 | 18.63 | 18.25 | 8.88 | 2.25 | 13.63 | 8.13 | 21.25 | 18.63 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Walcott, Cazorla, Sanchez | Sanchez, Cazorla, Chambers, Walcott | Cazorla, Sanchez, Walcott, Oxlade-Chamberlain | Ramirez, Downing | Ramirez, Downing | Downing, Ramirez, Friend | ||||||
Middlesbrough came into the EPL this time around with the reputation of being a very good defensive team and that they would use that skill that got them there to keep them in the top flight. So far the results have been mixed. Middlesbrough have managed to stay in the middle of the pack when it comes to goals conceded, but have fallen in the bottom three in terms of goals scored as they’ve managed just 7 goals in 8 matches besting only Burnley and Sunderland. Their opponent this week will challenge their defense as Arsenal have managed to outscore their opponents 19-2 in their last 6 matches putting some serious pressure on this Middlesbrough team. With the match being played in the Emirates I suspect that Arsenal will have a very good chance to control this match start to finish and put away this Middlesbrough team quite easily.
Arsenal Top Plays
Theo Walcott, Midfielder/Forward, $8,900 – In his last four matches for Arsenal Walcott has taken 20 shots over his last 4 matches and has 5 goals to show for it. Walcott has been a key offensive piece for the leagues best offense in recent weeks. Middlesbrough will present a challenge in terms of their defensive ability but they have not been devoid of mistakes and those mistakes are what will make Walcott truly standout for this team.
Mesut Ozil, Midfielder, $8,200 – Ozil is going through one of his hot-streaks and he is one of the players that works to control the midfield. In a matchup with a well-disciplined defensive team, a creative midfielder with effective passing is necessary. This is where Ozil comes in as he’s one of the better creative players on the team. He gets the nod here because of his potential for assists. He’s a tournament option only though. For cash games I’ll recommend going after Alexis Sanchez instead.
Arsenal Secondary Plays
Alex Iwobi, or Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain – I’ve already mentioned Alexis Sanchez, who’s a viable option, there are two other Alex’s that are worth considering if they get the start. Iwobi (Midfielder/Forward, $6,200) and Oxlade-Chamberlain (Midfielder/Forward, $5,900) are similarly priced and both very capable of multiple score upside. Ox had a good game against Ludogorets midweek so Iwobi might get the start this time around, depending on whether Arsene Wenger implements a rotation or not. The team will likely need one of them for the coming midweek fixture in the English League Cup. Both of these guys could work for cash or tournament.
Middlesbrough Top Plays
None
Middlesbrough Secondary Plays
George Friend, Defender, $4,700 – There is some merit to targeting a defender such as George Friend. Friend is a very unique full back in that he provides crosses, interceptions, tackles and shots. The projections (Check them out in the DFS Marketplace have him projected for at least 3 tackles and 3 interceptions and a total of 6-8 fantasy points. This is a pure speculative play as Middlesbrough shouldn’t get a lot of possession. However, we do know that the best way for a player to get tackles and interceptions is through tackles and interceptions which should come in plenty of supply this week for Friend.
Burnley vs Everton
| Burnley | Everton | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 550 | -152 | ||||||||||
| L D L W L L | W W W L D D | ||||||||||
| 2-1-5 | 4-3-1 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.50 | 1.88 | 19.25 | 11.25 | 16.75 | 26.13 | 13.25 | 5.13 | 11.50 | 6.00 | 19.25 | 22.13 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Andre Gray, Sam Vokes | Dean Marney, Johann-Berg Gudmundsson | David Jones | Baines, Barkley, Mirallas | Barkley, Mirallas, Baines, Deulofeu | Mirallas, Baines, Barkley, Deulofeu | ||||||
When you look at the shots conceded by a team, Burnley usually stands out as the most porous defense in the premier league. And while they haven’t conceded the most goals (thanks to Tom Heaton), they do concede the most chances, shots, and crosses, making the opponent team very appealing from a fantasy perspective. In this matchup they play hosts to Everton who should outrank them in every way and should be able to dictate the flow of this matchup making it entirely possible to stack the Everton squad as they look to collect all three points from this matchup. It will be very difficult for me to take any players from this Burnley squad in either tournaments or cash, this makes me automatically consider the goalkeeper for Everton.
Burnley Top Plays
None
Burnley Secondary Plays
Matthew Lowton, Defender, $4,500 – You could also go with the other full back, Stephen Ward ($4,400) as both are very capable full backs who can cross the ball. The matchup with Everton does provide some pause as Everton are a better team and are thus more likely to make things tough for the full backs to venture forward. But with Lowton playing at home, there is a chance you can take here with Lowton or Ward, but it is hardly the best option.
Everton Top Plays
Romelu Lukaku, Forward, $9,200 – One of the top forwards in the world is now one of the hottest forwards in the world. Taking Lukaku in your teams at this point should just be second nature as he has double digit points in almost every game this season. He scored a great goal against Manchester City last weekend and will look to keep that run going this week against Burnley.
Yannick Bolasie, Midfielder/Forward, $8,000 – He’s the master of the open play cross as well as a master chance creator. Bolasie is really thriving in Ronald Koeman’s offense and finding his teammates to the tune of 3 assists on the season as a result of 13 chances created on the season. It doesn’t hurt to have a teammate like Lukaku who can finish from almost anywhere.
Everton Secondary Plays
Gerard Deulofeu, Midfielder/Forward, $6,700 – If you want a cheaper option to get some exposure to Everton this weekend then look no further than Deulofeu as the midfielder has yet to get a goal or assist on the season despite featuring in 5 games so far this season. He did however only start two of those so far, but if he starts and plays a full 90 minutes, he should carry some potential to get some fantasy production. If he doesn’t start then consider Mirallas in his place.
Hull vs Stoke
| Hull | Stoke | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 213 | 147 | ||||||||||
| L D L L L L | L L L D D W | ||||||||||
| 2-1-5 | 1-3-4 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.00 | 2.88 | 22.88 | 12.38 | 14.75 | 22.88 | 11.38 | 3.00 | 15.38 | 9.50 | 20.50 | 22.00 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Hernandez, Snodgrass | Snodgrass | Snodgrass, Huddlestone | Bojan, Arnautovic, Adam, Walters | Adam, Shaqiri, Arnautovic, Ireland | Bojan, Shaqiri, Adam, Affelay, Ireland, Arnautovic. | ||||||
After getting absolutely hammered last week by Bournemouth by 6 goals, Hull look to welcome Stoke to their home stadium. Stoke on the other hand have seemed to find their footing the last couple of weeks with a win 2-0 against Sunderland and two consecutive draws vs WBA and Manchester United, the second of those especially impressive. Stoke are traveling to Hull this time around and will be looking to make good on their three week run of positive results. Meanwhile, Hull are still mired by internal turmoil within the club, and to add to that, the team is still facing a litany of injuries that make their bench thin and the options for their embattled manager few and far between.
Hull Top Plays
None
Hull Secondary Plays
Robert Snodgrass, Midfielder, $7,400 – Snodgrass gets the nod here because of his giant role on this Hull team. And with them playing at home, Snodgrass has the potential for goals, assists, crosses as well as being the main penalty kick taker on the squad.
Stoke Top Plays
Xherdan Shaqiri, Midfielder, $7,800 – Shaqiri has been good since his return from injury. How good? if you take out the matchup against Manchester United, he’s averaged 8.5 crosses a game and while he’s had 9 shots so far, he hasn’t scored any goals yet since his return from injury. I think this has a chance to end this week as they play a Hull team that allowed 6 goals last time out to Bournemouth.
Joe Allen, Midfielder, $6,200 – He’s too expensive to be considered a “value midfielder” but he’s still cheap enough despite scoring 2 goals last time out and slotting in the number 10 position and going against a team that should concede some goals this week. If you want to fit Allen in a tournament lineup, I am not opposed to the idea as he can score in this specific situation. However, if he doesn’t start in the number 10 (Center Attacking Midfielder) then I will not have any exposure to him.
Stoke Secondary Plays
Wilfried Bony, Forward, $6,800 – Bony will score goals for this Stoke team eventually. He has none of those so far this season and he’s starting to see himself potentially fall out of favor. With Bojan, Walters, Diouf all on the bench waiting for an opportunity, this could be a week where Bony starts to recapture his previous form that saw him be a coveted striker by Manchester City a little over a year ago.
Leicester vs Crystal Palace
| Leicester | Crystal Palace | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 107 | 299 | ||||||||||
| W L W L D L | D W W W D L | ||||||||||
| 2-2-4 | 3-2-3 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.13 | 3.13 | 13.00 | 7.38 | 17.63 | 18.13 | 14.63 | 3.75 | 12.75 | 7.25 | 29.00 | 22.25 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Mahrez, Vardy | Mahrez, Drinkwater, Gray | Mahrez, Drinkwater, Gray | Cabaye, Gayle, Wickham | Cabaye, Puncheon, Jedinak, Ward, Delaney | Townsend, Puncheon, Cabaye, Ledley | ||||||
This matchup is an interesting one. On the one hand, the odds favor the home team to get the win here, on the other, the previous matchups of both these teams suggest that the game will be closer than we might think. Palace have been a team that has some DFS options that we’ve targeted in the past including Benteke, Townsend and Puncheon, meanwhile, the Leicester top plays have routinely disappointed if you didn’t get any goals from them. There is a chance that Vardy misses this clash due to missing practice on Thursday. If that’s the case, then Slimani and Musa or Okazaki would partner up on top. This matchup might end up being one that draws a lot of attention but results in little fantasy appeal when it’s all said and done as both these teams might be evenly matched.
Leicester Top Plays
Islam Slimani, Forward, $7,700 – With Vardy potentially missing out, Slimani gets my vote this week. This matchup is interesting for Leicester as Palace are one of only 2 teams that have not kept a clean sheet this season (the other being Sunderland), so there will be a goal scored here more than likely making it easy to target one of the forwards, and in this case, I like Slimani as he can partner with Mahrez to get a goal for their team.
Leicester Secondary Plays
Riyad Mahrez, Midfielder/Forward, $8,800 – Mahrez gets the nod here because of his set piece duties. Crystal Palace have conceded 4th most chances from set pieces in the premier league, and that squarely plays into their game. They are not yet a solid defensive team that can eliminate a threat without committing a foul. So this plays into Mahrez’s hands. They either commit fouls and he gets a shot from a set piece, or they don’t commit fouls and he gets the freedom to roam through the defenses and create chances for him and his teammates.
Crystal Palace Top Plays
Andros Townsend, Midfielder, $9,000 – Townsend is a solid cash play option as he is very adept at delivering crosses for this team, and is one of the reasons they have some potential in every match they play. Townsend can easily deliver double digit crosses in every matchup, and he’s also averaged 1.5 chances created every match but still is without an assist on the season. I suspect he’ll get one of those soon with Benteke in the middle able to provide the goal scoring abilities.
Crystal Palace Secondary Plays
Christian Benteke, Forward, $8,400 – Benteke disappointed last time out with -1 fantasy points and a missed penalty kick and hurt me in particular, but this week is a new chance for him to get back on track. He gets to terrorize the Leicester defense this time around and the potential for goals for him is very good. Leicester showed that they will make some midfield mistakes in their loss to Chelsea last weekend, Palace can take advantage of those and get themselves a good opportunity to get Benteke some easy opportunities.