EPL Match Week 29 Preview - March 14-16
The week that was saw yet another one of the EPL’s elite flame out of European cup competition as Chelsea crashed out of the tournament midweek. Arsenal and Man City (barring Herculean efforts next week against Monaco and Barcelona respectively) also have one foot out the door of the Champions League, so putting their focus on domestic duties will become the utmost priority in the run-in to the title and top-four positioning.
Ernestiko will take a look at each game on the DraftKings slate and some of the interesting plays he’s thinking about.
Saturday
Sunderland vs. Aston Villa
Sunderland form: DLDLD ; 16th EPL
Aston Villa form: LLLLW ; 17th EPL
Key stat: Sunderland GK Costel Pantilimon averages four saves per game
While this is a critical match in the battle to avoid relegation, there aren’t many attractive plays between the two squads. Aston Villa got a crucial home win last time out thanks to a last-minute Christian Benteke ($7,300) penalty, and the win was enough to move them to 17th position and out of the bottom three… for now. Benteke has an injury worry which is something to be cautious of. For Sunderland, they’ve scored one goal in their last four games so it’s hard to envision any type of attacking fireworks from them. GK Costel Pantilimon ($4,900) is one of the league leaders in saves and this could be another good output for him as Villa had struggled to find the back of the net before the win last time out.
Leicester City vs. Hull City
Leicester City form: LLLDL ; 20th EPL
Hull City form: DWWLD ; 15th EPL
Key stat: Nikica Jelavic and Dame N’Doye have combined to score five of Hull’s last six goals
Even though Leicester sit bottom of the league and will need a significant return from the final few months of the season, they are consistently competitive and are never an easy game for their opponents. Hull only have two away wins in the league (one coming in August) so getting three points from this game will be a big ask for them, even though they’ve seen an uptick in their form recently. The strike duo of Nikica Jelavic ($6,000) and Dame N’Doye ($6,400) have combined for five goals since February 10th and are certainly mildly priced. Before two stuttering performances against Man City and Everton, Riyad Mahrez ($5,700) turned in FPTS of 15, 10, 17, 20, and 21 making him a viable MF play from the Leicester side.
West Brom vs. Stoke
West Brom form: DWDWL ; 13th EPL
Stoke form: DLWWW ; 8th EPL
Key stat: Saido Berahino has scored more league goals than Wayne Rooney, Robin Van Persie and Romelu Lukaku, among others
Stoke head to West Brom with some of the best form in the league this weekend. The only loss in their last six came at the hands of Man City and Victor Moses ($6,700) has been a key reason for their recent surge. With two goals in his last three, he has hit double-digit FPTS in every game dating back to February 8th. Stoke have kept clean sheets in their last two games bringing Asmir Begovic ($4,500) and the defense into play. West Brom has stuttered a bit as of late, but Saido Berahino ($8,300) remains their most potent goal scorer having bagged three in his last four games
Arsenal vs. West Ham
Arsenal form: LWWWW ; 3rd EPL
West Ham form: DDDLL ; 10th EPL
Key stat: Arsenal have scored 2 or more goals in seven of their last eight league matches
On form alone, Arsenal should feel very confident about cruising to victory and capping off an immense week. Monday saw them conquer Manchester United in the FA Cup in Manchester, so one would think a good performance on Saturday would give them the right amount of confidence if they’re to stage an epic comeback in the Champions League next week. Unfortunately for West Ham, they’re going the other way, having only won in the league once in the 2015 calendar year. Frankly, everyone should be in play for Arsenal, but I like the prospects of their two fullbacks playing well in Kieran Gibbs ($4,000) and Hector Bellerin ($4,500). Both put in a decent number of crosses and should have a good chance at keeping the back of their net empty. Mesut Ozil ($8,100) is also rounding into some good form and should like the prospects of setting up their dangerous frontmen of Alexis Sanchez ($10,200) and Olivier Giroud ($9,400).
Burnley vs. Manchester City
Burnley form: DLDLL ; 19th EPL
Manchester City form: DWWLW ; 2nd EPL
Key stat: Sergio Aguero and David Silva have accounted for 46% of Man City’s league goals
Manuel Pellegrini has a full squad to choose from, and will be hoping his men turn up in the league this weekend before heading to Barcelona and attempting the nearly impossible feat of coming away from the Camp Nou with a win. Burnley, on the other hand, continue the battle against relegation and need to start picking up points if they’re to have a chance of staying in the top flight for next season. For Burnley, the Kieran Trippier ($4,900) will look to keep firing in crosses and racking up FPTS. GK Joe Hart ($5,400) is the most expensive at his position for the Saturday slate, and frankly, there are better plays even though Man City will like their chances. Sergio Aguero ($10,100) is the second most expensive player on Saturday but hasn’t scored in his last two matches while David Silva ($8,700) has a “hit or miss” type of run of returns going lately with 16, 6 and 32 FPTS in his last three games. Burnley won’t make it easy for City but they should be confident in picking up the three points.
Sunday
Chelsea vs. Southampton
Chelsea form: DWWDW ; 1st EPL
Southampton form: WDLLW ; 7th EPL
Key stat: Chelsea have kept a league-best 13 clean sheets this season
Chelsea will badly want to turn in a good performance on Sunday in the hopes of erasing the bad taste left by their Champions League exit during the midweek. Chelsea has scored more than goal in a match twice in their last eight matches in all competitions (not counting the game against PSG that went extra time) so their form does seem to be stuttering as of late and squad fatigue has been the reason most often noted. Could Mourinho break from tradition and start rotating the squad a bit? Chances are, probably not, as they only have one trophy to focus on from now to the rest of the season. We should expect changes to the side that face PSG last weekend, though. Perhaps this could be the week that Juan Cuadrado ($6,400) makes his mark for the first time in a Chelsea shirt? There are no numbers to suggest it is a certainty, but Cuadrado is too good of a player for this to continue much longer. Diego Costa ($10,000) is in a drought and may warrant fading with players like Harry Kane and Daniel Sturridge available for less. The Branislav Ivanovic ($5,300) vs. Ryan Bertrand ($4,500) fullback battle will be one to watch too but with Southampton sliding down the table and Chelsea so good at home, it’s hard to believe any Saints players will find huge success on Sunday. Southampton have only scored one goal in their last four games bringing all Chelsea defenders and GK’s into the fray.
Everton vs. Newcastle
Everton form: DLDLL ; 14th EPL
Newcastle form: DDLWL ; 11th EPL
Key stat: Everton have only won twice in games immediately following Europa League matches
Everton can’t seem to replicate Europa League form into the domestic league but face a stagnant Newcastle side who they will feel like provide them an opportunity to break that trend. Romelu Lukaku ($8,800) has set the Europa League aflame with goals and fantastic play and immediately becomes a contender for the FW slot. The two Everton wing backs, Leighton Baines ($5,400) and Seamus Coleman ($4,900) also are reliable in providing dividends via crosses and assists although keep an eye on Baines’ injury worry. Daryl Janmaat ($3,700) has shown the same qualities from the Newcastle side and is available for cheaper. Newcastle will miss top goal scorer Papiss Cisse through a lengthy suspension thus reducing the chances of a solid offensive output.
Manchester United vs. Tottenham
Manchester United form: DWLWW ; 4th EPL
Tottenham form: WLDWW ; 6th EPL
Key stat: Tottenham has conceded 39 goals in the league this year which is the worst among teams in the top 10 of the table
Arguably the best game of the weekend with three points separating the two and a potential Champions League berth at stake, this game has the feeling of having several goals in it. United were dumped out of the FA Cup earlier in the week and with Liverpool and Spurs hot on their heels in the chase for top four positioning, not dropping points at home will be huge for them. With Angel Di Maria (suspension) and Robin Van Persie (injured) both set to miss out, it has to be impossible for Louis Van Gaal to leave out Falcao ($8,400) once again. Ashley Young ($4,700) had a huge output last time out with 25 FPTS, but he looks to be a major doubt after picking up an injury. Adnan Januzaj ($4,500) could be the one to replace him and at a bargain rate if he can mirror Young’s frequent crossing. Antonio Valencia ($4,400) is listed as a MF but deployed as a right wing back, could be a nice flex play. From the Spurs side, it’s the revelation of the season Harry Kane ($9,900) that will surely be a hot commodity on Sunday. Nacer Chadli ($5,600) will also warrant a look from the MF position having 10 goals to his name in all competitions. Both goalkeepers have traditional put up consistently good numbers but being that there should be goals in this match, I’ll be fading both De Gea and Lloris.
Swansea City vs. Liverpool
Swansea City form: DLWWL ; 9th EPL
Liverpool form: DWWWW ; 5th EPL
Key stat: Liverpool have scored 2+ goals in eight of their last ten games
With four wins on the bounce and Manchester United facing a tough game against Spurs, a good result this week could see Liverpool enter the top four. Like the game before, this game has the feel of goals in it. Alberto Moreno ($4,000) is another defender who plays as a glorified winger and may warrant a look although there are other options that may fare better. For the third consecutive week, I love the Daniel Sturridge ($7,500) price tag, and he immediately becomes one of my favorite plays of the week. With games of 9, 15 and 10 FPTS in his last three games, Phillipe Coutinho ($5,900) is still worth a look, as is Jordan Henderson ($4,800) from the midfield position. Swansea boasts a solid attacking midfield duo of Gylfi Sigurdsson ($7,100) and SY Ki ($4,600) that both scored in their most recent defeat to Spurs.