EPL Soccer DFS Targets: Saturday, August 8th
Premier League on DraftKings is BACK!
My wife is a school teacher. Every year, she finishes school right before the final week of the Premier League season, and she starts back up the week when EPL starts. It’s a nice cycle; it’s great for vacations, as we can both take some time off together without me worrying about soccer research, write-ups or lineups for Saturday. School starts Wednesday. EPL starts Saturday. All is right in the world.
The Basics
Image Credit: DraftKings.com
Let us start with the basics of DFS soccer on DraftKings. Build a team with eight players (GK, 2 Defenders, 2 Midfielders, 2 Forwards and a FLEX position) while staying under the salary cap of $50,000. Simple stuff, basically the same formula we use for all other sports. What makes EPL different from other sports is that the games all happen Saturday morning, and with few exceptions, the sweat lasts 2-4 hours and then you’re done and can move on to college football or to MLB (or NBA) later in the day. Games on Saturday morning start at 9 AM central, and there is usually a late game at 11:30 AM central too. Once these games are done, the results are tabulated and your winnings are deposited into your account. It’s as easy as that.
Well, how about research? There are some very simple steps to undergo when researching for your EPL lineups:
Familiarize yourself with the teams. Home teams tend to be favorites; it’s easy to look up the Vegas odds and use them to determine who the big favorites are. You should use the favorites to pinpoint which teams have a good shot at the win, and with that, you can target goalkeepers and defenders. In EPL every year there are three new teams that get promoted from the Championship; oftentimes these teams change and add some talent with an influx of revenue anticipated as part of being a top flight club. It is usually very tough to predict how these teams will play, thus, there is an edge to be had in the early weeks if you can accurately predict the style of play.
Sometimes it’s good to stack goalkeepers and defenders from the same team. The reason for this is that goalies and defenders get a Clean Sheet (CS) bonus if they can end the match without conceding a goal. So, a team finishing without conceding goals and stacking two defenders with the goalkeeper can net you an additional 15 points to your total points when games are said and done. The downside of the strategy is that it is high variance and might preclude you from rostering defenders that share a more active role in their team’s offense.
Formations. When the lineup is released by the team, it is usually in an image that you can use to determine the team formation. (P.S. you should follow all the teams on twitter, or follow me and I’ll give you the lineups on Saturday morning). Knowing the formation is important as it gives you a glimpse into where a player will be on the pitch and where he is most likely to get the ball. Note: Players closer to the opponent goal are in a better situation to score goals.
Goals are the foremost important currency in DFS soccer. Like touchdowns in NFL and HRs in MLB, goals are a great way to score a lot of points in a hurry. A goal on DraftKings is worth 12 points, and sometimes getting 3-4 of those can be enough to score high in GPPs or at least be safe in cash games. To target goals, go after strikers (forwards) and attacking midfielders.
Assists are also important, as an assist is an automatic six points for the player who delivers the final pass that leads to a teammate scoring a goal. While these are tough to predict, there are some advanced stats that point to a player who is creating chances for his teammates (specifically, Chances Created). You should target players who create chances consistently.
Consistency is important, as there are some players that are consistently part of the action, but don’t always get to finish the play; these are guys that rack up the crossing points, draw fouls in the midfield and occasionally take shots. These guys have high floors as they do several things that are counted for our stats on DK and thus carry tremendous value. They also have a high upside because they can find the back of the net at any time given their usual proximity to the goal.
So, it’s important to factor in all that when building your lineups. Throughout the EPL season I’ll be attempting to give some lineup building strategies as well as team breakdowns, in addition to highlighting some of the top plays for that specific week.
Goalkeepers
Thibaut Courtois, Chelsea $5,700 – In a relatively short slate with only five matches, Thibaut Courtois and the defending champions Chelsea find themselves as the biggest odds favorites on the day. While they’re facing a Swansea team at home that might give them some trouble given the creativity of Garry Monk and the type of pressure he can put on the defending champions that may throw them off their game. Nevertheless, this only serves to elevate the projection for Courtois as he may end up facing an extra save or two, and if you couple that with a clean sheet as well as the win bonus, he could be in for an excellent day between the posts.
Kasper Schmeichel, Leicester City $4,900 – In looking at all the cheaper options at goalkeeper, I’m not comfortable recommending any of them, as there is no obvious edge that any of these keepers carries over the competition. With the first week of real football of the season, there will always be surprises. One team that I believe will have an edge this week will be Leicester City over visiting Sunderland. Sunderland just traded away Connor Wickham, and while Jermain Defoe and Jeremain Lens are two talented forwards, Lens is new to the Premier League and most new players take some time to adjust. And Defoe for his part didn’t do much with his opportunities to end the season last year with only one goal in his last seven matches to end the season. I expect Schmeichel could be a low owned goalkeeper considering his relatively high price. However, his upside is as good as any other available keeper for Saturday.
Other Goalkeepers To Target: Tim Howard (Everton, $5,400), John Ruddy (Norwich, $5,000)
Defenders
Branislav Ivanovic, Chelsea $6,000 – Ivanovic was excellent last season, contributing several goals for Chelsea from the back and assisting on a few others. He also was a crossing machine for a team that tended to attack early and then hold late. His price, and Chelsea’s reputation of a conservative team will keep his ownership lower than it needs to be, but Ivanovic has the tools and the role in the offense to make him a top defender. Moreover, Chelsea does have the added benefit of being a defending champion opening their campaign at home, which is extra motivation that can help propel them to a decisive win.
Simon Francis, Bournemouth $3,000 – This is a very risky pick. As always with newly promoted teams, there will be a lot of uncertainty when it comes to selecting players. Especially on defense, where the performance will be a roll of the dice. Francis is cheap enough and plays for a Bournemouth team that is opening its EPL campaign at home against an Aston Villa team that last season only managed 10.3 shots away from home. Francis may not have much to contend with defensively, depending on how Libor Kozak (the recently returning from injury striker) is moving. Kozak is returning from nearly 20 months off with injury and may not be in form. If that is the case, then Francis may get to push forward on attack and deliver some crosses, as he was known to do while in the Championship last season.
Other Defenders To Target: Martin Olsson (Norwich, $2,800), Steven Whittaker (Norwich, $2,600), Leighton Baines (Everton, $6,500), Cesar Azpilicueta (Chelsea, $3,900), Seamus Coleman (Everton, $5,800), Allan Nyom (Watford, $2,500)
Midfielders
Eden Hazard, Chelsea $9,800 – Possibly the premier player on this slate and could potentially be the top fantasy player for the whole season. If you’re playing a season long EPL league, he’ll be very difficult to pass up on if you get the opportunity to roster him. Hazard is young, very talented and playing in a system that is conducive to his skills. Moreover, he’s a workhorse who’s always on the move and very capable of providing his teammates with key passes or scoring goals himself. The big dilemma with Hazard this week is whether or not Diego Costa will be active, and whether you should roster Hazard. The Chelsea game is the late game this week and with lineups not being out by the time you have to make your decision on whether to roster Hazard. I suggest you keep him in your FLEX spot and if you choose to roster Costa instead of him, you can swap Hazard out.
Matthew Ritchie, Bournemouth, $4,900 – Ritchie might be the most widely talked about midfielder I’ve seen so far among all those who pay attention. The 25-year-old scored 15 goals last season and plays out wide and looks to be cheap enough given his potential contribution to be a key player to target for a good number of your lineups. Of course there is always risk with newly promoted clubs not getting off to a good start, however, Bournemouth have a good enough matchup in their first week that I am not worried about taking Ritchie in several of my lineups.
Riyad Mahrez, Leicester, $6,500 – With Leicester being one of my top teams that I’ll be targeting this week, Mahrez fits perfectly in that scheme. He ended last season with the most touches in the penalty area for his team. He also cemented his role behind the two strikers, which will lead us to target him more often this season as Leicester put themselves in a position to build on their near-relegation campaign and come out to a stronger start to avoid a similar experience this time around. By the numbers, Mahrez was a big contributor with involvement in 25% of the goals scored for his team last season. Look for that number to remain the same or even improve this season, beginning with this matchup against Sunderland.
Other Midfielders To Target: Yannick Bolasie (Crystal Palace, $6,400), Yohan Cabaye (Crystal Palace, $5,500), Cesc Fabregas (Chelsea, $7,700), Leandro Bacuna (Aston Villa, $4,400), Leon Osman (Everton, $4,300), Cesc Fabregas (Chelsea, $7,700)
Forwards
Callum Wilson, Bournemouth $5,300 – With two of the five home teams being recently promoted squads, we should look at some of these teams to potentially have a strong outing. The most likely candidate for such a strong opening match is Bournemouth who are playing Aston Villa. Wilson should be starting as a lone striker up front, and given his production last season (20 goals, 7 assists, 2.9 shots per game), targeting him for your fantasy squads this weekend will not be a bad choice.
Romelu Lukaku, Everton $9,000 – It’s a tough forward slate, and you know I’m not super excited about it when I’m listing Lukaku right off the bat. As the most expensive forward on the slate, Lukaku merits consideration. However, with Costa’s potential injury, and with three newly promoted teams in this slate, Lukaku seems like the safest forward option if you are looking to spend up in the position on Saturday. There are a few cheap options, but if you decided to save your salary and want to spend it here, Lukaku is probably the safest option given that we won’t know the status of Costa until after the first four matches lock.
Troy Deeney, Watford, $5,200 – Another newcomer is Troy Deeney. I like him less than Wilson as he’s playing on the road, but he’s playing a squad that allowed the sixth most shots to opponents at home last season. Deeney is no stranger to taking shots, as his numbers last season in the Championship (21 goals, 9 assists and 2.9 shots per game) show that he’s more than capable of leading a squad up front in the Championship. This season will be a test to see if he can do the same in the Premier League.
Loic Remy, Chelsea $6,800 – He has to be mentioned due to his team and the fact that he may be starting in place of Diego Costa, who has a hamstring problem. If Remy does start, he’ll be going against a Swansea squad that allowed 17.1 shots per game on the road last season and will likely concede this week. Remy also has the added benefit of having multiple talented midfielders who can feed him the ball in potential goal scoring scenarios. The disadvantage of Remy is that he will likely be substituted off for Falcao (Chelsea, $7,200), so you won’t get the full 90 minutes from him.
Other Forwards To Target: Leonardo Ulloa (Leicester, $6,300), Jeremain Lens (Sunderland, $5,300), Connor Wickham (Crystal Palace, $6,700), Dwight Gayle (Crystal Palace, $5,000), Cameron Jerome (Norwich, $6,500), Jermain Defoe (Sunderland, $6,600), Bafetimbi Gomis (Swansea, $5,600), Andre Ayew (Swansea, $5,100)
There are a lot of forwards listed here, but the majority of them are unknowns. For a cash team I would go Lukaku/Wilson or Deeney, and for a GPP any of the other guys can fit the bill. If Diego Costa does indeed start, you should put him in some of your lineups, as he is the most likely player of the bunch to score multiple goals.
As always, you’ll have to monitor for starting lineups. Things can and will change, and there is a possibility that players I have listed above don’t actually end up in the starting XI.
Twitter is a great resource for lineups, and they are usually released an hour before kickoff. If you liked this article, please leave a comment here or leave me a message on twitter. Also, if you have any last minute questions, feel free to tweet at me Saturday morning while we’ll all be scrambling to fix our lineups last minute. Good luck!