EPL Top Plays: Saturday, March 21st
It’s another week and another set of soccer fixtures over in England with the Barclays Premier League getting back underway bright and early Saturday morning. We have six matchups to look forward to Saturday morning on DraftKings. Five of them start at 11AM EST, while the last one starts up at 1:30PM EST. These start times are a welcome break from the 7am wake up calls we had just last month.
Last weekend was a tough one, as I recommended Pantilimon since he was facing Aston Villa, who somehow managed to score FOUR goals against Sunderland and have now scored six goals in their last three matches. Also disappointing were several of my other key picks, as several players either didn’t get the start (Cazorla, N’Doye), didn’t get the touches (Moses, only 31 touches and mostly in his own half, then he subbed off for injury), or just didn’t deliver with their opportunities (Elmohamady, most touches in final third for his team). Overall, it was a forgettable slate and I look forward to this weekend’s slate and some better performances and picks.
As always, make sure to check lineups about an hour before the first game kicks off. I will post them on twitter as they are made available and you can follow me on twitter.
Goalkeepers
Fraser Foster, Southampton $5,400 – It’s been a while since I recommended the Southampton goalkeeper, as his team has been in somewhat bad form lately. With only two wins in their last six matches, the Saints have fallen down to the sixth spot in the league table. However, after a positive draw with Chelsea at Old Trafford last week, they’ll face Burnley with some renewed confidence that can help see them try to build back and get back into the conversation for the battle for Europe (note: Top 4 teams qualify for Champions League, while number five qualifies for Europa League). Burnley is a squad that somehow managed to win as a huge underdog against Manchester City last weekend after having less than 30% of the possession, and almost a third of the number of touches of their opponent in the final third. If it weren’t for a Boyd screamer, Burnley wouldn’t be coming into this matchup as winners. As such, I still prefer Foster to other expensive keeper options as he has the best odds to win this match, as well as his price being slightly cheaper than other top options at the position.
Brad Guzan, Aston Villa $4,800 – There are two matches that are expected to be pick-ems, Swansea vs Aston Villa and Stoke vs Crystal Palace. I chose Brad Guzan and Aston Villa due to their recent form. In their last three matches, they only conceded two goals after conceding six goals in the three preceding that. Since moving Agbonlahor to the central striker role (we’ll get to him later), Villa have employed a variety of formations (4-4-2, 4-3-3 and 4-1-2-1-2) that have all led to the same thing: better control of the midfield, which in turn has led to fewer goal scoring opportunities. In fact, over the last three games, Villa conceded eight shots on target, and in the three games preceding them, they conceded 15 shots on target. In an even matchup this week against Swansea, Guzan is facing a squad that may threaten, but that only helps drive up his save total and thus, his fantasy output.
Other Keepers I Like: Julian Speroni (Crystal Palace $4,500), Asmir Begovic (Stoke $5,000), Adrian (West Ham United $5,400), David Ospina (Arsenal $5,500)
Defenders
Ryan Bertrand and Nathaniel Clyne, Southampton $4,600 and $4,500 – Take your pick, as both are offensive-minded full backs that tend to drift forward and assist in the attack. Both like to take a lot of crosses and their natural position on the pitch is closer to midfield rather than on defense. Last week was an aberration as they were playing a motivated Chelsea squad and thus didn’t dare attack as often, however, two weeks ago against Crystal Palace, Clyne and Bertrand had 9 and 10 fantasy points respectively. You can expect a good chance at a clean sheet this week along with some attacking numbers that can help bolster their point totals due to crosses along with the potential being there for an assist if one of the forwards manages to score a goal on a cross.
Danny Rose, Tottenham $4,500 – Another attacking defender that is worth a look at is Danny Rose for the spurs. As the left back for Tottenham, Rose has 12 crosses on DK in his last two games. Tottenham are in a great spot playing against a weak Leicester squad and Rose will look at the attack as often as he can. On the season Leicester has conceded almost 54% of their crosses from the left side and when Tottenham venture forward they’ll be looking to exploit that and Danny Rose may just power them through.
Other Defenders I Like: Hector Bellerin (Arsenal $4,700, or whoever else starts at fullback), Aaron Cresswell, Carl Jenkinson (West Ham $5,100, $5,000), Kieran Trippier (Burnley, $4,900), Martin Kelly (Crystal Palace $3,000), Erik Pieters (Stoke $3,200), Leandro Bacuna (Aston Villa $3,700)
Midfielders
Charles N’Zogbia, Aston Villa $4,200 – He’s extremely cheap and has a knack for drawing fouls, taking shots and delivering crosses. While last week is an aberration of a performance (13 DK points), I do believe that Villa have turned a corner offensively and that N’Zogbia may be part of these plans. If he continues to start, then you can at least give him a look if you need a cheap player to plug into the midfield.
Stewart Downing, West Ham United $6,700 – West Ham is the likely winner in their matchup against Sunderland and on the season Downing has been consistent in his involvement in the West Ham attack. With five total goals and seven total assists, Downing has proven to be a contributor. Moreover, at home he plays significantly better, as over his last five home games he averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game. Most of these are a result of taking more crosses and shots. Look for Downing to get back on track this week after falling off in form a bit recently.
Christian Eriksen, Tottenham $8,000 – Eriksen had a forgettable game last week against Manchester United with only 15 touches in the final third, zero chances created, with only 79% of his passes successful. This week should be a different story as Tottenham are heavy favorites and are looking to take it to Leicester. Both Eriksen and Harry Kane should be heavily featured and are likely to be involved in at least one goal against a weak Leicester side if this Spurs team wishes to see itself get another three points and challenge for a spot in European competitions next season.
Other Midfielders I Like: Wilfried Zaha (Crystal Palace $4,000), Yanick Bolasie (Crystal Palace $6,700), Filip Djuricic (Southampton $4,000), Mesut Ozil (Arsenal $8,400), Charlie Adam (Stoke, $5,000), Jonjo Shelvey (Swansea, $5,300), Gylfi Sigurdsson (Swansea $7,400)
Forwards
Harry Kane, Tottenham $10,100 – He just got named to the England squad for the first time and he’s playing at home in front of his home supporters (he also grew up right down the street from the stadium), so he should be extra motivated to prove his worth as England’s next great striker. Kane is the second most expensive player on the slate, and if you noticed a trend in my picks, I really like Tottenham to score this week against Leicester and for Kane to be one of the top plays on the day.
Olivier Giroud, Arsenal $9,700 – I gave you all these cheap midfield plays so we can fit in some big guns up front. Giroud has scored a goal in seven of his last ten matches. I’d like to think it’s because I’ve written him up here almost every week and he’s just repaying me for my support, but really, he’s just been an excellent striker for Arsenal as he pulls them within striking distance of second place squad Manchester City. While Giroud scored a goal against Monaco in the Champions League fixture midweek, it wasn’t enough. The entire squad will be looking to make up for it this week through a dominant performance against Newcastle on the road. Expect lots of attacking and for Giroud to get as many shots as he can on goal with the hope that one or more can slip past the keeper.
Gabriel Agbonlahor, Aston Villa $6,800 – It’s amazing what a change in scenery can do for you, and even better than that, what a change in formation can do to the productivity of a young striker. Villa had been playing Agbonlahor as a left striker and just recently (two games ago) switched him to the central striker position. The results were immediate as Gabby has scored three goals in two matches and is relishing the role as the main striker alongside Benteke and sometimes N’Zogbia or Sinclair drift forward to change the formation to three strikers. Gabby should continue his great form and will be threatening the Swansea goalkeeper often in this home matchup as Villa are looking to cement their escape from the relegation zone.
Other Forwards I Like: Christian Benteke (Aston Villa $7,900), Sadio Mane (Southampton $6,700), Glen Murray (Crystal Palace $3,000), Diafra Sakho (West Ham $7,700), Bafetimbi Gomis (Swansea $7,000), Alexis Sanchez (Arsenal $10,400)