EPL Top Plays: Saturday, September 19th

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2015-09-20 20:11:43

Welcome to another week of Daily Fantasy Soccer with DraftKings continuing to push some large tournaments for week six. We can dive into this week’s salaries and top plays with confidence that if we make the right decisions we should be rewarded handsomely for our endeavors.

This week the slate has six matches with two clear cut favorites in Manchester City and Bournemouth. However, there are some diamonds in the rough that we can exploit by targeting some low owned-high ROI teams such as Swansea, Leicester and Watford. One thing to look for this weekend is teams that played in the Champions League and Europa League may have some injury concerns, so be sure to monitor for starting lineups as they come out Saturday morning prior to pushing the final submit button.

Team Odds

Opponent Stats

Goalkeepers

Joe Hart, Manchester City $5,600 – The England international has arguably the best matchup of anybody this week with West Ham coming to the Etihad to face off against the current league leaders. With the exception of the midweek fixture in the Champions League (a 2-1 loss to Juventus at home), Hart has been excellent this season so far with double digit scoring in each of his matchups. West Ham have some quality up front with Payet, Moses and Sakho, however, they do not scare me in this matchup. Away from home West Ham have only managed 10 shots per game (league average 11.75.) Hart also has the ability to make multiple saves that could boost his overall stat line if given the chance.

Tim Howard, Everton $4,500 – You can’t truly trust any of the cheap goalkeepers as this seems like one of those weeks where you must pay up, however, if you were to try to find value at keeper in order to roster someone at midfield or forward at a higher price, Tim Howard could be a great candidate for that. Howard has the ability to make several big saves including games of six and seven saves already this season against Manchester City and Tottenham. Howard is not a cash play, however he is a good GPP option if you are willing to take a risk.

Other Goalkeepers to Consider: Artur Boruc (Bournemouth $5,200), Brad Guzan (Aston Villa, $5,000), Lukasz Fabianski (Swansea, $4,900)

Defenders

Simon Francis, Bournemouth $3,900 – Many people are saying that Sunderland won’t look as bad as it has so far this season once they start playing easier matchups. Those same people are pegging this matchup with Bournemouth as the ideal spot for Sunderland to bounce back and start a run towards the middle of the table. I agree with part of that statement; Sunderland will make a run towards the middle of the table – I don’t know if they’ll be able to make it, but they’ll have a stretch this season where they look like a competent football team. This however, is not the matchup for it. The matchup with Bournemouth on the road will be a tough one given that Sunderland have not shown that ability to play well away from home, yet. On the season Sunderland averages nine shots on the road (which is good for 18th of 20 teams in the EPL), Moreover, in those same matchups, their opponents have averaged 20 shots per game and have controlled possession. Bournemouth are a team that has promise and could potentially score some goals if given the chances. Targeting Simon Francis is ideal because he is priced lower than what he is capable of (several crosses, shots and potential for assists) and with Bournemouth facing Sunderland, the potential for their first clean sheet is the highest it’s been all season.

Erik Pieters, Stoke $3,100 – Pieters is an ideal fullback for DraftKings scoring when he’s playing at home. He doesn’t get pinned back and manages to push forward to assist in the attack. Leicester have not been a good defensive team this season, they allow 22 crosses a game from their opponents, and with Stoke being a strong defensive team at home, I expect that Pieters will end up free to push forward and put pressure on his opponents. Ultimately, there are not a lot of good plays at defense this week and that makes variance a major issue. If one defender manages to put the ball in the back of the net, that team will find itself catapulting to the top of the leaderboards.

Other Defenders to Consider: Aleksandar Kolarov (Manchester City, $6,500), Bacary Sagna (Manchester City, $4,300), Kyle Naughton (Swansea $4,300), Allan Nyom (Watford, $3,700), Jordan Amavi (Aston Villa, $4,100)

Midfielders

David Silva, Manchester City $9,000 – Silva is on a high right now; normally I don’t like to target players who are in the middle of their hot streak, but for Silva I’ll make an exception. For the season Silva has four assists on 12 chances created (a 33% rate, league average is around 10-15% every season) So it is unrealistic to expect Silva to continue delivering assists at this rate for the rest of the season. He does however create plenty of chances via through balls and crosses. We get points for crosses on DraftKings, and on the season he has 10 through DraftKings scoring (he has 23 in Opta, so you know he’s delivering balls, just that not a lot of them count.) All it takes is for more than half of those deliveries to register as crosses and you’re looking at double digit point total on crosses and shots alone (he has averaged two shots per game this season.) I expect Manchester City to win this game handily; this makes Silva a vital play for cash games with Aguero a good pairing for him.

Matthew Ritchie, Bournemouth $5,300 – If you’re going to fit Silva, Aguero and Hart in your lineups then you’ll need to get some savings elsewhere. One of those place is one of my favorite plays, Matt Ritchie. He plays on the right side of Bournemouth and he’s matched up against Van Aanholt, M’Vila and Borini, who are all negative defenders, leaving Ritchie to put the pressure on the opponent. Ritchie is also on free kick duty so he’ll get more opportunities to get assists, especially against a team like Sunderland that commits 15.5 fouls per game away from home this season.

Other Midfielders to Consider: Jefferson Montero (Swansea, $5,500), Xherdan Shaqiri (Stoke, $5,500), Riyad Mahrez (Leicester, $9,600), Raheem Sterling (Manchester City, $8,500), Marc Albrighton (Leicester, $7,900), Nathan Dyer (Leicester, $4,800), Carles Gil (Aston Villa, $4,300), Scott Sinclair (Aston Villa, $4,500)

Forwards

Sergio Aguero, Manchester City $11,400 – I have Aguero in a season long team and he’s been disappointing me. I paid too much for him in auction and that has led me to a 1-4 start on the season. This hasn’t stopped me from targeting him every week. Last week he left early with a small knock but he came back and played the final nine minutes in the Juventus match midweek. Expect Aguero to be highly owned because of his stature, but also expect that a fade may prove worthy of your time in GPPs. He is not an ideal cash game play because he doesn’t do much outside of score. However, he’s arguably the best scorer on the slate and if you fade him and he has one of those magical performances then you could find yourself on the outside looking in.

Callum Wilson, Bournemouth $7,400 – Bournemouth and Wilson have looked sharp at home this season, and while Wilson’s goal scoring streak was halted at two matches, he’s playing at home now against Sunderland who have surrendered 18.8 goal attempts per game this season with 206.6 touches in the final third by their opponents. I think Wilson is in a great position to score goals this week and should be expected to carry the load at front for The Cherries.

Jose Rondon, West Brom $5,300 – At $5,300, Rondon is a great target for both cash and GPPs as he is going to take a good number of shots for this squad while also being capable of delivering assists if his team does score. On the season he has four chances created, nine goal attempts, one assist and a goal. As the season progresses he’ll get more and more comfortable with his teammates and that will lead to more opportunities and more goals and assists. Rondon may still be underpriced, however, this may also be where he naturally falls as the season progresses. His talent however puts him at a $7,000-valued striker, so I will be taking advantage of the apparent discount given his potential.

Other Forwards to Consider: Andre Ayew (Swansea, $7,500), Bafetimbi Gomis (Swansea, $8,400), Romelu Lukaku (Everton, $9,400), Papiss Cisse (Newcastle, $7,700), Odion Ighalo (Watford, $6,000), Troy Deeney (Watford, $5,700), Saido Berahino (WBA, $5,800), Bojan Krkic (Stoke, $4,300)