Expert Survey: NFL Playoff Best Ball ahead of Wild Card Weekend
Our panel of experts is here to give you their insights on NFL Playoff Best Ball ahead of Wild Card Weekend. They’re ready to answer key questions that will assist you in making those crucial drafting decisions. Curious about Neil Orfield’s preferred roster construction? Or perhaps you’re wondering about Davis Mattek’s favorite late-round target at each position? Find out below!
Expert Survey: NFL Playoff Best Ball ahead of Wild Card Weekend
Which draft slot do you prefer? Who would be your ideal selection in that slot?
Neil Orfield: #1 spot. I like having back-to-back picks, and starting with Puka Nacua is always fun.
Davis Mattek: The first 3 slots are 100% the most valuable on all postseason draft platforms. It has become too hard to get Josh Allen + James Cook together, and you can get Puka Nacua + Davante Adams + Matthew Stafford from the #1 slot now.
Dan Back: I’m wanting the #1 pick. Puka Nacua getting an almost guaranteed 2 games is massive, and the ability to get Matthew Stafford, Davante Adams, or Kyren Williams with him is super easy.
Billy Ward: #1, with my ideal start being Puka Nacua and another Ram (Matthew Stafford if available, but one of Davante Adams or Kyren Williams works as well).
Which early-round pick has the biggest bust potential?
Neil Orfield: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Davis Mattek: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Dan Back: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Billy Ward: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Who is your favorite late-round target at each position?
Neil Orfield: QB – C.J. Stroud; RB – Zach Charbonnet; WR – Luther Burden III; TE – Tyler Higbee
Davis Mattek: QB – Jordan Love; RB – Woody Marks; WR – Jayden Reed; TE – Oronde Gadsden
Dan Back: QB – Justin Herbert ; RB – Ty Johnson; WR – DK Metcalf; TE – Tyler Higbee
Billy Ward: QB – Caleb Williams; RB – Woody Marks; WR – DJ Moore; TE – Brenton Strange
What is your preferred roster construction?
Neil Orfield: A primary stack that includes at least the QB, top RB, top WR, and top TE, with two or three secondary stacks from the opposing conference.
Davis Mattek: 2 QB, 2-3 RB, 4-5 WR (and then 1-2 TE on DK)
Dan Back: One strong team stack and other players from two teams in the opposite conference.
Billy Ward: One main stack and two or three secondary stacks from the other conference.
Which team stack will you be overweight on?
Neil Orfield: Eagles
Davis Mattek: Bears
Dan Back: Rams
Billy Ward: Bears
Which team stack will you be underweight on?
Neil Orfield: Seahawks
Davis Mattek: Bills
Dan Back: Broncos
Billy Ward: Seahawks
Which big name will you be overweight on?
Neil Orfield: Christian McCaffrey
Davis Mattek: Christian McCaffrey
Dan Back: Jalen Hurts
Billy Ward: Christian McCaffrey
Which big name will you be underweight on?
Neil Orfield: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Davis Mattek: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Dan Back: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Billy Ward: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
What do you think is the optimal strategy for NFL Playoff Best Ball?
Neil Orfield: Ultimately, I want to be able to field a full roster in the Super Bowl round, ideally with an extra piece or two for more potential combos. I’d like to draft teams that could potentially have every player still active for the Conference Championship round (e.g. players from no more than 2 AFC teams and 2 NFC teams). To achieve this is not always straightforward though, as it is very dependent on the draft room. It is important to stay agile and accept that you might have to sacrifice some late-round pieces in order to advance.
Davis Mattek: This is pretty clear – the only thing that matters is fielding an optimal Super Bowl lineup. Anything that takes away from that is costing you money. A big shift in my thinking for these games this season is drafting more versions of optimal lineups for rarer Super Bowl matchups. For example, doing a Caleb Williams Bears stack instead of taking 3 crappy Bills players at the end of a draft.
Dan Back: We finally have the full field, so I think it’s important to be building for some unique teams in the Super Bowl. Getting four players from one squad gives you the ability to get a little weird with two players from multiple teams to give you a full lineup come the Super Bowl. Going just a pure double stack will likely get you a more unique build, but it’s going to be tougher to make it to the Super Bowl with such concentrated lineups.
Billy Ward: I personally believe most of the edge in NFL Playoff Best Ball is before the field is set, as it gives you the best chance to make super teams at low ADP. While that will lead to plenty of dead teams as well (I have far too many Ravens stacks), we’re playing for a shot at 1st place, not to get as many teams to Round 2 as possible. With that said, at this point in the season, I’m drafting lineups built around a long-shot stack from one conference (specifically the Bears or Jaguars) and two or three stacks from the other conference, similar to Davis’ plan of building around less-likely Super Bowl matchups.
With the varying roster requirements and scoring differences, how does your strategy differ between DraftKings and Underdog?
Neil Orfield: On DraftKings, I am more likely to add one-off pieces that are unlikely to make it deep into the playoffs. There is 1 additional starting spot for a TE but 2 extra roster spots, making it easier to fit in an “early-round advancement” piece.
Davis Mattek: I have started to take 3 TEs on a lot of my DK rosters. Luke Musgrave over Dontayvion Wicks / Matthew Golden, Oronde Gadsden over Keenan Allen, Dawson Knox as my last Bill, etc. I think this is a hidden edge in the game.
Dan Back: My preference is DraftKings because I like the deeper lineups and rosters. This allows you to take a few real off-the-board shots that could pay off if your stacks make the Super Bowl. Tight end becomes a lot more important too, as it’s a separate position on DK.
Billy Ward: The biggest difference for me is taking a shot at three stacks in one conference on Underdog, since starting one less player means we don’t need as many flex players. On DraftKings, my plan will exclusively be a primary stack with two teams from the other conference.
Which No. 1 seed is most likely to disappoint?
Neil Orfield: Seahawks – The defense is great, but they can’t keep getting away with it. In Week 18, the 49ers had multiple opportunities for turnovers that would’ve changed the outcome of the game. Those are going to go the other way in one of these games.
Davis Mattek: The Broncos are already preparing their excuses for when they lose in the Divisional Round.
Dan Back: Broncos – I just don’t trust Bo Nix at all, and the prices on them compared to the Seahawks make them a very easy fade for me.
Billy Ward: Seahawks – While some books now have them as Super Bowl favorites, it’s hard to get teams through with Seahawks players getting a first-round bye, and it’s not worth the risk outside of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who can disappear in the wrong game script thanks to the Seahawks’ defense and extremely low pass rate over expectation.
On DraftKings, how much do you prioritize getting the TE1 with your QB1? Do you frequently reach ahead of ADP?
Neil Orfield: I definitely prioritize the TE with my top QB. It always depends on which team and how the draft room is shaking out, but I frequently do reach on a handful of picks for my QB-TE stack.
Davis Mattek: I prioritize it the same as you would with a WR1. You just have to ask yourself: will this guy project well in a given Super Bowl? Jordan Love + Luke Musgrave is probably not going to win, but Josh Allen + Dalton Kincaid might!
Dan Back: I’m so happy DK has a TE position. It makes building lineups super interesting. First off, I REALLY want Hunter Henry in any stack of the Patriots. He’s really their top volume receiver, so go up and get him if you draft Drake Maye or Pats early. Also, I think Tyler Higbee coming back adds a nice wrinkle. He’s made the ADP of Colby Parkinson drop, which is fine because I still really like him, but also, Higbee gives you a unique piece that at least half of the drafts probably never considered.
Billy Ward: That answer is highly team dependent. I will reach a bit for a premium tight end (someone like George Kittle), but I won’t go out of my way to force it when stacking teams that don’t involve their tight end heavily.
For NFL DFS content and access to all of our data and tools, head to the NFL Content Schedule. To sweat your lineups and bets with us, go to our RotoGrinders Discord and find the NFL channel!
Image Credit: Imagn