Eys Breakers: Tonight's FREE NBA Player Props Picks
The 2022-2023 NBA season is officially underway! We have a massive slate with 11 games on the schedule this evening. We have already seen phenomenal debuts from the new crop of rookies this year, including Paolo Banchero’s 27-point outburst on Wednesday.
Additionally, we have seen the return of exciting superstars like Kawhi Leonard and Zion Williamson. We should have an outstanding season ahead of us in the Association.
Free NBA Expert Picks: Friday Player Props
Demar DeRozan Over 27.5 Points (-118)
Let’s get started with a surprise team from last year, who is already dealing with familiar injuries in the early going this season. The Chicago Bulls played their opener on the road in Miami without Zach Lavine and Lonzo Ball. As we saw on multiple occasions last year, Demar DeRozan dominates when these two are off the court. DeRozan piled up 37 points in 36 minutes, as the short-handed Bulls stunned the Heat at home.
This type of performance was a frequent occurrence when DeRozan was forced to step up last season. According to CourtIQ data from RotoGrinders in games DeRozan played without Lavine and Ball, DeRozan averaged 33.07 points per 36 minutes with a massive 38.8% usage rate in those games. Wednesday’s opening night performance was certainly no fluke from DDR.
DeRozan’s points prop sits at 27.5 points across the industry. This is a big number for any player, but it is also a number DeRozan has cleared with ease in multiple games without Lavine and Ball, who remain sidelined tonight. Further adding to our value here is a matchup with the Washington Wizards, who owned the sixth-worst defensive rating in the league last season. Give me the over on 27.5 points for DeRozan tonight.
Jimmy Butler Under 35.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-115)
Next, we shift our focus to the clash between two Eastern Conference powerhouses from last year, with the Boston Celtics heading down to South Beach to take on the Miami Heat.
Jimmy Butler led the Heat in their disappointing opener with 24 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assists. Butler also put up an average of 21.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.5 assists for the season last year – an average of 32.8 PRA for those who don’t want to add them up.
So, Butler is coming off 35 points, rebounds, and assists in a home matchup against a Bulls defense that ranked just 23rd in basketball last season, and he averaged just 32.8 PRA for the season last year. Today, he gets a matchup with the Celtics, who owned the number one defensive rating in basketball last year, and they also played at the seventh-slowest pace. The Heat played at the league’s third-slowest pace last season and ranked fourth in defensive rating, giving this matchup all the ingredients for a slow-paced, offensive struggle.
We can also identify some line value by shopping around with the Odds Compare tool over at ScoresAndOdds. Butler’s PRA line is as low as 33.5 in places like BetMGM, but we can get it at 35.5 PRA at DraftKings Sportsbook. With this game environment, I am fine with the under 33.5 for Butler, but give me the added value with Butler under 35.5 points, rebounds, and assists at DraftKings.
Ja Morant Over 28.5 Points (-114)
Finally, we look to Houston, where the Rockets will host the Memphis Grizzlies. Ja Morant and company look to build on the success that led them to the number two seed in the Western Conference last season.
The MVP candidate, Morant, got his season off to a great start with 34 points in the Grizzlies opening night, overtime win over the Knicks. The Grizzlies were slightly short-handed as Dillon Brooks missed the opener, and he is listed as doubtful again for tonight.
Morant averaged 27.4 points per game last season, but that number ticked up to 30.4 points per 36 minutes with Dillon Brooks off the court. He also saw a slight 0.8% usage bump up to 34.6% without Brooks.
Also, working in Morant’s favor this evening, is the outstanding matchup against the Houston Rockets. The Rockets played at the second-fastest pace in the league last season and ranked dead last in defensive rating, making them the best overall matchup for scoring. The Grizzlies also played at the fourth-fastest pace last year, so we should see a few extra possessions for each side.
The (expected) absence of Dillon Brooks and an outstanding game environment make this a smash spot for Ja Morant. Give me the over on 28.5 points.
That will do it for today’s breakdown of the NBA slate. We were able to identify three props to target:
- Demar DeRozan Over 27.5 Points (-118, FanDuel)
- Jimmy Butler Under 35.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-115, DraftKings)
- Ja Morant Over 28.5 Points (-114, FanDuel)
Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!