Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds, Prediction & Pick
Falcons vs. Jaguars Odds
| Falcons Odds | +3 |
| Jaguars Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 43 |
| Date | Sun, Oct. 1 |
| Time | 9:30 a.m. |
| TV | ESPN+ |
In Week 4, NFL fans in the United States will be treated to their first edition of Sunday morning football when the Atlanta Falcons meet the Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium in London. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30 am ET on ESPN+.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Jaguars as 3-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 43 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Atlanta Falcons
Can Atlanta generate enough offense to be competitive on Sunday?
Rookie running back Bijan Robinson has been nothing short of spectacular through his first three career NFL games, ranking fourth in the league in rushing yards over expected, according to NFL NextGen Stats. Only Breece Hall, Nick Chubb, and James Cook have averaged more rushing yards over expected per attempt than Robinson so far in 2023.
The larger question for this offense is the passing game, which has lacked a pulse during the first month of action. Desmond Ridder has only 553 passing yards through three games and has taken 12 sacks. His 37.9 QBR ranks 29th among qualified signal callers this year.
This group has a tough test on Sunday against a Jacksonville defense that has been extremely strong against the run to begin the new campaign.
Atlanta defense trending up
After playing only 11 defensive snaps in Week 3, cornerback Jeff Okudah will reportedly see his workload increased significantly on Sunday against the Jaguars. Okudah, a former first-round draft pick, struggled mightily in his first season with the Detroit Lions, but has steadily improved in each subsequent season. In his Atlanta debut, he was targeted only once, and allowed zero receptions. If Okudah can play well on Sunday, he figures to help an Atlanta secondary unit that ranks 20th in Dropback EPA through three games.
Jacksonville Jaguars
What to expect from struggling Trevor Lawrence
In 2022, Trevor Lawrence had a 25-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio from a clean pocket, compared to a 5-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio when under pressure. The early returns in 2023 have continued to validate those splits, with Lawrence throwing a pair of touchdowns and completing 70.2% of his pass attempts from a clean pocket, compared to a 1-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 48.3% completion rate when under duress.
On Sunday, we should see much more of Lawrence from a clean pocket than him under duress. Atlanta ranked 25th out of 32 defenses in pressure rate in Week 3 and 29th in pressure rate in Week 2. If the Jaguars can protect Lawrence up front, he should have his best performance of 2023 to date.
Jacksonville defense poised for strong performance
Through three games to begin the season, Jacksonville’s defense ranks 23rd in Dropback EPA/play and 14th in Dropback Success Rate, but ranks 3rd in Rush EPA/play and 2nd in Rush Success Rate. Fortunately for the Jaguars, their opponent this weekend is ill-equipped to exploit their vulnerabilities through the air.
Desmond Ridder has averaged only 6.9 yards per attempt and thrown one touchdown this season when throwing from a clean pocket, according to PFF. Last season, Ridder similarly struggled from a clean pocket, averaging only 5.7 yards per attempt. After allowing 37 points to the Houston Texans in Week 3, Jacksonville’s defense should have a much better showing in this spot against Atlanta.
Falcons vs. Jaguars – Picks & Predictions
In this matchup, Jacksonville is most vulnerable through the air, which is to their benefit against Desmond Ridder, who has been one of the least productive quarterbacks in the NFL since entering the league last year. Trevor Lawrence has not had a strong start to 2023, but his struggles can be primarily tied to him being under pressure at a high rate. On Sunday, Lawrence should have plenty of throws from a clean pocket against an Atlanta defense that has generated minimal pressure on opposing quarterbacks each of the last two weeks. If the Jaguars are unable to come away with a win in this spot, it might be time to hit the panic button.
PICK: Jaguars -3 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)