FanDuel NBA Single-Game Strategy: Spurs/Jazz DFS Preview
Hello Grinders. FanDuel has a solid single-game offering for tonight’s San Antonio Spurs vs Utah Jazz game. Let’s dive in and see what we can make of this game.
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The Spread
The Jazz enter as solid 7.5-point home favorites in a game with a 222 over/under on the NBA betting odds board. As of this writing (late Thursday night) only the Nuggets/Thunder (215), Pacers/Knicks (211.5) and Mavs/Magic (220.5) have a lower over/under, while the Cavs/Wizards game is TBD. The Spurs and Jazz are 16th and 19th in pace, respectively, so this game should be on the slower side as both are in the bottom half of the league in pace.
The Injuries
This is the front end of a back-to-back for the Jazz, so the team is opting to rest Mike Conley here. This should give Joe Ingles more point guard responsibilities, while Emmanuel Mudiay should see a few extra minutes in the second unit as a result. I do think this bodes well for Jordan Clarkson too, who has had some blowup games recently with Conley out of the lineup.
Other news for this game is Ed Davis is expected back, which shouldn’t move the needle for us but it gives the Jazz some additional depth behind Rudy Gobert.
DeMar DeRozan was dealing with some back spasms but says he feels good so he should be all systems go here. The Spurs also waived DeMarre Carroll during the All-Star Break, which isn’t too noteworthy considering Carroll was averaging just nine minutes per game this season. Those minutes likely flow to LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay and Trey Lyles.
The Options
Rudy Gobert – Given the pricing, I tend to think people will be forced to choose between Rudy Gobert at $14,000 or Donovan Mitchell at $15,500. Per CourtIQ, when Conley is off the court this season, Mitchell does lead the team with a 31.3% usage rate and averages 1.12 fantasy points per minute, but it’s actually Gobert who leads the team with 1.21 fantasy points per minute. Given the slightly better per-minute production and the price savings of $1,500 by dropping down, I prefer Gobert between the two if forced to choose just one of the Jazz studs. Gobert did drop 35.8 FD points against these Spurs back on January 29th, and he finished with massive 17-point, 19-rebound double-double while not getting any blocks or steals and finishing with four turnovers. If he can cut down on those turnovers and rack up those STOCKS, he could be due for a big line tonight.
Jordan Clarkson and/or Joe Ingles – I’m writing these two up together because I think you can go two routes here. I think it’s completely viable to pair the two as both are affordable enough value options. If you look at the Game Flow Tracker from their last game where Conley was also out, we see that Clarkson and Ingles did share time on the court together for about half of Clarkson’s minutes, so I do think the two can co-exist. We should see both players take on larger roles with Conley out tonight, and CourtIQ shows that Clarkson averages .98 fantasy points per minute while Ingles is at 0.89. At $9,000, I can see upside to both.
If playing both feels like too much negative correlation, I kind of prefer Clarkson in this spot. I do think Ingles has the safer floor so if floor is your aim, go with the starter Ingles. But if you want to chase upside, I think Clarkson possesses more upside. We see that in his higher per-minute production, and we’ve seen in lately where he’s reached 31+ FD points in the three games prior to the All-Star Break. He’s mainly a scorer which isn’t great for FanDuel scoring, but he’s definitely in a groove right now.
LaMarcus Aldridge – Both DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge are very close in price, so I feel like ownership may be split here among the two (unless you’re deciding to jam in both). It feels weird to say, but the numbers suggest Aldridge may have a slightly better matchup and he’s the one I side with between the two Spurs stars. I realize FanDuel has a 9th OPRK next to Aldridge’s name while DeRozan has a 15th OPRK next to his, but the data I’m looking at shows the Jazz have allowed the second fewest FanDuel points to opposing shooting guards this season, while they are allowing the 17th most FanDuel points to opposing centers (so they are essentially league-average). I know targeting Rudy Gobert seems like a bad idea on paper, but the numbers suggest he’s not someone we should be that scared of playing players against. While Aldridge is $500 more than DeRozan, I prefer his upside here in a matchup where the numbers favor him.
Thanks for reading, and good luck tonight. May variance be on your side.
Image Credit: Imagn