FanDuel NBA Single-Game Strategy: Suns/Lakers DFS Preview
Hello Grinders. Happy New Year. If you’re like me, you’re optimistic that the year 2020 will bring lots of new adventures and good fortune.
We start off the new year with a Suns/Lakers game on FanDuel that has a ton of high end options that are interesting, making this a trickier Single-Game than normal. Let’s dive into this daily fantasy basketball slate.
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The Spread
Vegas has this game opening with a 226.5 total, the highest on this four-game slate today. The Lakers are heavy 11.5 point favorites and are now 26-7 on the season, 1st in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Suns are 13-20 and sit 10th in the West. Both teams are playing well lately and riding two game winning streaks. This sets up well for the Lakers, as they are 6th in defensive rating while the Suns are all the way down at 19th. I don’t think we need to predict a blowout here, but the Vegas line and the way these two teams set up has me preferring the Lakers side of the ball in terms of players I want to target.
The Injuries
The Lakers enter this game fairly healthy, with Anthony Davis probable. Kyle Kuzma also played on Sunday and hit 26 minutes, which was encouraging considering he played 30 minutes the night before. As for the Suns. Deandre Ayton returned from a five-game absence and played 20 minutes off the bench last game, while Frank Kaminsky sat out. Kaminsky remains questionable for this game with knee soreness and given Ayton’s return, I don’t think we can really trust Kaminsky’s rotation minutes at the point even if he does suit up.
The Options
LeBron James and/or Anthony Davis – I think we need to figure out the obvious, which is whether we want one or both of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. So much of the Lakers’ usage flows through these two that it makes sense to get at least one, and I think there’s a strong case to roster both. If you play both, it almost feels like a bit of a toss up as to which one you prioritize in the MVP slot. It might be more contrarian, but I give Davis a slight lean over LeBron as Davis averages more blocks + steals per game (4) compared to LeBron (2), and both have averaged 35 minutes per game this season. The argument for LeBron is that the Suns have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing point guards (I realize LeBron actually plays forward but he acts like a point guard), so the matchup for LeBron is better on paper. I don’t think there’s a right/wrong answer here and it almost feels like a coinflip, but I personally would lean towards jamming in both on today’s slate and capturing all their usage.
Kelly Oubre – I do have concerns about the Suns staying competitive in this game, and I don’t love the individual matchups for some of the players. Ricky Rubio is expensive and will have his hands full with Avery Bradley and Danny Green, both of whom I consider above-average defenders. I also feel the same with Devin Booker, who is also expensive and will likely get one of Bradley or Green. I can’t trust the center spot on the Suns with Aron Baynes / Deandre Ayton in some kind of timeshare. That leaves me with Kelly Oubre. His matchup on paper is a neutral one as the Lakers are league-average against small forwards, but I love the blocks+steals upside that Oubre possesses and he’s coming into this game in good form. He’s scored 49.5 and 50 FD points now in back-to-back games and at $11,500, he’s not overly expensive. If I’m taking a shot on one of these Suns starters, it’s likely Oubre.
Alex Caruso – If you decide to go the stars and scrubs route, then you’re going to need some value. Caruso is my favorite value option at $6,500. The goal is that LeBron and AD help the Lakers blow out the Suns to the point where Caruso may get some extra garbage time run. Even if this game isn’t a blowout, we’ve seen Caruso carve out a role where he’s played 15, 19, 10, 22, 16 and 25 minutes over his last five games. He’s scored double-digit FD points in four of this five last games and even reached 20+ FD points twice. The options at the low end are guys like Avery Bradley and…well…that’s kind of it. I’d rather take my chances on Caruso and hope he can just get to double-digit FD points.
Let me just say that taking a more balanced route is also completely viable. If you play just LeBron and fade Anthony Davis, hoping that maybe he gets hurt early and leaves the game, then loading up on the Suns side with guys like Rubio, Booker and Baynes is a fine strategy too. I think it’s good to think through possible game scripts and set your lineup that way. If you think this game stays close, maybe going more balanced so you’re getting exposure to both sides is a better approach than the stars and scrubs lineup.
Thanks for reading, and good luck tonight. May variance be on your side.