FanDuel NBA Single-Game Targets: Bucks/Raptors (Game 1)
Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals tips off tonight and with that comes another big one-game slate on FanDuel. A $9.99 entry fee gives you a shot at taking home $100K in the $350K Wednesday NBA Shot, so there is still plenty of money to be made despite the abbreviated schedule.
In this space I’ll dive into some of the top targets for your NBA lineups for Wednesday’s slate.
Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Kawhi Leonard
This is probably the first choice a lot of users are going to make tonight. On one hand, I have Giannis projected for more raw points, but given the discount to get to Kawhi ($2,000), Kawhi grades out as the better value up top. I’m really curious to see how each team will defend the other’s superstar – Pascal Siakam was given the Giannis assignment most often in the regular season (93 possessions, Kawhi was next highest at 31) and while several teams have used centers to defend Giannis, the Raptors may be better off throwing more Leonard at him, at least while the first unit is on the floor. Marc Gasol doesn’t have the lateral movement to defend the Greek Freak at this stage, but Toronto may use Serge Ibaka to defend Giannis while he’s out there.
It sounds very much like Khris Middleton will handle Kawhi on the defensive end the majority of the time, a matchup that Leonard should win. Middleton will probably do a decent job defending Leonard in the PnR, but Kawhi is too long and skilled for this matchup to work in Milwaukee’s favor over the long haul. While both teams have strong supporting casts, I give the Bucks the nod in the secondary scoring categories which will likely make it easier on them to take what the Raptors defense gives them, while Kawhi looked like the only Raptor that wanted to shoot deep into the 76ers series. With all this said, I’ll give Kawhi the nod as the top high-end play with some Milwaukee secondary options filling out the lineup.
Advantage – Kawhi Leonard
Second-Tier Targets
In this group (in terms of salary), we have Siakam, Middleton, Lowry, Bledsoe and Gasol. I do have interest in both Siakam and Middleton, but given that it’s tough to roster both with one of Giannis/Kawhi, I’ll give Middleton the nod here. I do think his defensive assignment may make life on the offensive end a tad tougher, but I think the Bucks defense is better equipped to give Siakam issues at the rim, where he was able to have a lot of his success against Philly. The Sixers were perfectly content letting Siakam shoot 3s and even he seemed hesitant to take them later in the series, and he should meet more resistance at the rim here.
In terms of Lowry/Bledsoe, I’ll again give the nod to the Milwaukee side. Bledsoe’s court time was down in the Boston series as George Hill turned back the clock, but the PG matchup may be one of the biggest difference makers in this series. If Kawhi/Siakam are able to more or less cancel out Giannis/Middleton, the secondary options are going to win or lose this series. Bledsoe will need to be a little more aggressive in this series and his per-minute upside relative to his price leaves him with an ample ceiling. Lowry has seen much more consistent court time, but he’s basically been settling for crumbs (mostly jumpers) in the postseason and isn’t as ball-dominant as he used to be. Marc Gasol is on the radar here, but he’s not terribly exciting at his price. I’d be fine with him as a last piece if he fits.
Advantage – Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe
Value Targets
This is the tough part. The Milwaukee guard-wing rotation off the bench is a little unclear with Malcolm Brogdon reportedly able to handle a bigger workload in Game 1, although he’ll still come off the bench. I’m a little afraid of the price tag on both George Hill and Pat Connaughton, the two big bench winners in the Boston series. Milwaukee probably won’t have to play much bigger than they did against Boston, but they may have some issues defensively with the second unit if Toronto utilizes some of the big lineups they won with against Philly. Milwaukee’s first unit is as long as anyone’s. Do we see their starters minutes extended here? I think that’s definitely possible and that coupled with Brogdon’s workload increasing is leaving Hill/Pat off my list. I’m not sure I’ll pull the trigger in single entry, but Brogdon himself is an appealing GPP target at $9,000. He should be a superior per-minute player to Hill/Pat and can work well with either unit, so if he climbs up to minutes in the mid-twenties, there is a ceiling here.
The same can be said for Nikola Mirotic at $9,000 – the per-minute upside is there, but the playing time isn’t cemented. If you need to save an extra $500, Serge Ibaka has been seeing all of the backup 4/5 minutes and should continue to see run in the 22-28 minute range here. I’d prefer Mirotic to Ibaka straight up, but it’s pretty close.
Advantage – Nikola Mirotic, Malcolm Brogdon, Serge Ibaka
Deep Values
There are two potential targets at or under $8K in my eyes – Danny Green and Brook Lopez. Fred VanVleet has shown very little in the postseason and I don’t think this matchup serves him much better. Green and Lopez are similar in that they need the 3PT shot to be falling to have any real success, while Lopez does add a little more in the ancillary categories. Given that Lopez is both cheaper and a better upside target, he gets the nod for me here. Milwaukee does generally sell out to protect the paint which theoretically should make things easier for Green. He also has a clearer path to minutes than Lopez does, so there are reasons to pivot if you want to hunt for them. I’ll stick with Lopez and hope his long-distance shooting comes back to life.
Advantage – Brook Lopez